MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The NAM is going to try and give us warning snows before the main event even arrives. And a slight shift north from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not sure what this is going to do yet. 06z GFS ensembles cooled a decent amount from 00z. Euro continues to trend north, but it could easily stop and go the other way as we saw with last system....or it could keep trending, hard to say. Will, What's your take on the Nam with its appetizer event 72 hours out? Looks like it could be a 4-8" then 12-18" one two punch Omg! The Nam at 84 is an effing monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The NAM is going to try and give us warning snows before the main event even arrives. I'm not surprised. Last night I tried to play up overrunning snows before the main "wintry mix". I could definitely see a surprise dumping before we're all dumbfounded with paint peeling PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK boys, plop in ur fav city and holy ****e http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Ksfz Nice conditions for 'First Fridays" here in the South End... -1 at 7PM Friday night. I'll be flying back from Denver (assuming I get out on Thursday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And a slight shift north from 06z. Some of the models did have this. Almost a weak surface wave and accompanying s/w with it. Sometimes those happen when you get these more long duration storms. I remember a few times that these weak waves served to shift the winds more north and cause the follow up low to stay frozen a little longer than one would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some of the models did have this. Almost a weak surface wave and accompanying s/w with it. Sometimes those happen when you get these more long duration storms. I remember a few times that these weak waves served to shift the winds more north and cause the follow up low to stay frozen a little longer than one would expect. This should be a pretty interesting upcoming week to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know this is ot..but i was just looking at the final pns for box with last event and longmeadow came in with 13.5 as did enfield ct.. i live very close to longmeadow and had about ten inches...i know that heavier band was a bit more intense just south of me but would love to here from someone in longmeadow to confirm that they had almost four inches more than i did. just a few miles nw of me they had only six inches..so in a ten mile nw to se gradient with the last storm the accums could have ranged from six to almost fourteen inches...would not that be something! just like the feb 06 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some of the models did have this. Almost a weak surface wave and accompanying s/w with it. Sometimes those happen when you get these more long duration storms. I remember a few times that these weak waves served to shift the winds more north and cause the follow up low to stay frozen a little longer than one would expect. >.5" QPF in SNE for the appetizer as the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 >.5" QPF in SNE for the appetizer. .25" here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The NAM is going to try and give us warning snows before the main event even arrives. dec 21-23 2008 ooops I think that was dec 19-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And a slight shift north from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not surprised. Last night I tried to play up overrunning snows before the main "wintry mix". I could definitely see a surprise dumping before we're all some of us are dumbfounded with paint peeling PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You're right - it was a sizeable shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK I'm SO confused now - A. What is this Pre-Storm I see that has poped out of NoWhere from the NAM's previous runs for Tuesday? And the precip ItSelf, pops out of Nowhere.. B. It's pretty hefty amounts.....again coming from Nowhere. C. The GFS doesn't have this at All. D. The GFS has slowed main event Down by 24 hours in One run. E. The NAM at 84 looks like the Beginings of a 1996/2003/1993 Superstorm Monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK I'm SO confused now - A. What is this Pre-Storm I see that has poped out of NoWhere from the NAM's previous runs for Tuesday? And the precip ItSelf, pops out of Nowhere.. B. It's pretty hefty amounts.....again coming from Nowhere. C. The GFS doesn't have this at All. D. The GFS has slowed main event Down by 24 hours in One run. E. The NAM at 84 looks like the Beginings of a 1996/2003/1993 Superstorm Monster. The NAM is likely wrong....I hope its not because if it has the right idea from 66-84 I think even my area will be all snow since that sort of setup rarely is non-snow north of around Trenton, NJ despite the fact the NAM shows 850s to 1-2C into CT and S NY by 78-84 hours... but it probably is off because I'm not sure the NAM solution of racing the southern shortwave out ahead of the Rockies northern stream bowling ball is correct...if that does not occur then the first wave never occurs and we get a setup more like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very first physically detectable difference in solar rad on the season taking place, as is typically the case nearing February 1. Every year, however, February 10 is the real magical date - so to speak - where a sunny day means a lot more radiation-wise than any date since the previous November 10. This is not formal science, no. It is just a little geek thing of mine I've noticed over the years: Parking a car - say - in a parking lot on February 10 onward is a good way to heat the inside of said car on an otherwise cold day. On Feb 10 and Nov 10 every spring and autumn, we cross over thresholds in sun angle - going positive in the former, negative in the latter. Like everything in nature there are no real boundaries, though - these dates of mine, too, suffer the same detection skewing. 'What is that, a tropical or extratropical cyclone out there?' These are demarcations we human's put on the fluid spectra of nature in an attempt to try and quantize order in the name science, rational thought, and logic...etc... This morning, it is sunny-like here in Ayer, and though we remain below freezing, the south side of my roof top, facing the sun, is currently rumbling down big slabs of snow - thank goodness, because I do not own a roof rake, and like most would otherwise need one heading into mid week . But, this is the first time a sunny day has had the radiative power to act on the blackness of the roof, to induce avalanches in an otherwise cold atmosphere. S,o that area of the electromagnetic intensity spectrum is upon us. 12 days from now that geek-door is already opening. For me, that is really when the cellar door opens and it gets harder and harder in eroding increments, everyday, until it is just simply May 1 and highly unlikely to happen until the ides of the following November. Last year, we had exceptionally ideal spring. I don't recall one backdoor cold front, and certainly not one interval lasting longer that a day or 2 when we suffered the more typical diarrhea month, April. I have since acquiring my own land taken up gardening with enthusiasm. This has provided a wonderful elixir for the horrible ennui that can otherwise be of the mud season in spring. April is now a month pleasantly distracted by the logistical planning, and even cultivating, as well as planting of the early hardier harvests. There is nothing like coming home from work after a stressful day at the office, donning in one's gardening belt, and slowly ambling up and down the aisles pruning and picking during mid summer's lingering vestigial evening daylight and heat. Throw in the distant rumble of thunder from a side-lit cumulonimbus, and it is gold. Who knows what this spring will hold? Last year, I firmly expected a belated warm season due to the presence of a -NAO persistently drilling vorticity maxima southeast toward out of eastern Quebec toward our Maritimes, sweeping mirth killing cold wedge after cold wedge across our area. Did not happen. The NAO seemed to just give up nearing March - really. Hence began the incredible 10 month above normal period. Whatever happens this go, I don't know about you folks, but I couldn't live in any other latitude. But I digress... hehe. Let's see. Based on everything I have looked at this morning this is a long duration light snow event slated for this week, with a couple of 6 hour periods where moderate snow would take place. This, notwithstanding any coastal headaches or climo on such events for lower CT-RI and SE MA. Quivel over that as we see fit - . There is lower probability in my mind for icing from this, even though at first glance that would appear to be so in the synoptic layout. The reason is that the magnitude of the arctic air; in this case just as in others in the past, the models will be too liberal in the amount that gets eroded, modifying lower tropospheric thickness some circa-100 miles or so too far on the N side of mean polar boundary. I'd take the mean of the 0C 850 placement and click it south 50 or so miles... I would also plan for icing between said boundary to points ~ 50 miles S of the 0C 850. Also, just because it is +1C at 850 doesn't mean icing, it doesn't mean you even have much IP. The fall velocity of frozen hydro-meteoroids is fast enough to pass through 1C intervening layer of warmth and survive that phase state. You really need it over 2C, and thick enough at that. Obviously this is all much to specific, but just some early thoughts. The governing look to this is that SPV up N of here is drilling a strong lateral confluence with the more southern stream, into the upper GL and Onterio areas. Nothing will penetrate that. Even the mightily west- biased GGEM is capitulating. More over, I have pretty much never - EVER - seen a warm solution win when such an aligning of deep layer streams had taken on that orientation. Cold, always.... If anything, I would be concerned that the whole package of events doesn't end up south, in which case we're watchers. Barring that, this appears that you got an interesting situation for SNE. Many areas ...really can't handle more snow. If the ground were bare, we probably would call it a low impact, long duration event. But because there is the antecedent issue with snow removal, not too mention navigating around in these 6-9' tall hallways we've created being difficult, having 4-12" of snow over 48 hours with perhaps (yes) a little ice thrown on top changes the stakes a bit. That converts this to higher impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This pre-event is just the cold air being booted from most areas south of 42 north.... Sets up the main event as a mess with only northern NY and NE getting mostly snow. Of course the NAM isn't very reliable at 84 hours. Looks clearer and clearer that this is only gonna be all snow from about GFL to LEB and points north maybe. But a fun complex event with hopefully a good dose of snow along with the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone may be dumbfounded by sleet. pelted into incoherence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z ecmwf actually looks like an ice storm for parts of sne. ORH would have serious problems verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z ecmwf actually looks like an ice storm for parts of sne. ORH would have serious problems verbatim. I could be wrong, but I think the ECM would be wrong if it is really indicating that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z ecmwf actually looks like an ice storm for parts of sne. ORH would have serious problems verbatim. Would be interesting if that were to take place on the heels of the modest warning snows per the NAM. Although, like Rick said, the NAM looks like it's scouring out any of the cold air--at least below the MA/CT line prior to the Wednesday system. Just got in from some back woods snowshoeing. Good workout.. Nice warm day. 27.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I could be wrong, but I think the ECM would be wrong if it is really indicating that - It very well may be wrong...just showing what it says verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nyc thread is depressing in regards to this system...and frankly this thread is getting depressing too...i like what tt had to say about all this and i hope his solution verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It very well may be wrong...just showing what it says verbatim. 12-18" with lollies of 24" for us?/kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Historic warm front on the NAM. Almost looks like that main storm is hanging back waiting for the PV to dive into the upper midwest on its backside. The ensuing cyclone would be the greatest winter storm in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 It very well may be wrong...just showing what it says verbatim. Yea, and come to think about .... I thought ice events were common during La Ninas anyway. some year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12-18" with lollies of 24" for us? /kevin kevin would probably get a roof-caving 1-2" of rain at 32-34 degrees verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12-18" with lollies of 24" for us? /kevin Bufkit based on the 06z gfs had 18.9" for GYX........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some of the models did have this. Almost a weak surface wave and accompanying s/w with it. Sometimes those happen when you get these more long duration storms. I remember a few times that these weak waves served to shift the winds more north and cause the follow up low to stay frozen a little longer than one would expect. I was developing a similar, but severely weenie, version of this idea: To my untrained eye, it's almost as if the first wave in the NAM 84h might allow HP in Canada to build in Eward and catch up with the later storm enough to feed in some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 kevin would probably get a roof-caving 1-2" of rain at 32-34 degrees verbatim. Damn. That smarts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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