MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kev better hope for a little south trend. I do think he'll get a bump in that direction but not much. I like these set-ups. Prolonged period of Accumulating snow. Very favorable outlook for the East Slope. Snowing for 48 hours. Nice. Haven't had those yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Based on the depicted qpf, I hope his range of 6-12 is a big fail. I'm fine with the lower totals as long as there's some sleet and rain taint, locking in a semi-permanent 25-35" depth. Condo collapsing, roof reducing, home hollowing, bring-it-down-to-the-basement heavy wet 10" is what is up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK boys, plop in ur fav city and holy ****e http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Ksfz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kev better hope for a little south trend. I do think he'll get a bump in that direction but not much. I like these set-ups. Prolonged period of Accumulating snow. Very favorable outlook for the East Slope. The more amped this system is the chances of it staying on a more northern track increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm fine with the lower totals as long as there's some sleet and rain taint, locking in a semi-permanent 25-35" depth. Condo collapsing, roof reducing, home hollowing, bring-it-down-to-the-basement heavy wet 10" is what is up right now. IDk about wet, the only layer near freezing is 8h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kev better hope for a little south trend. I do think he'll get a bump in that direction but not much. I like these set-ups. Prolonged period of Accumulating snow. Very favorable outlook for the East Slope. Agreed. Just because it comes south doesn't mean NNE doesn't get snow..Just means there's no mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What's the depth up there at 2k? was thinking about it yesterday when I was at 1320' locally out measuring Seems like 48+/-" is common along the spine of the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Even if this stays all snow, ratios will probably be low. I'm thinking nothing over a foot south of the pike. If there's taint, then less then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed. Just because it comes south doesn't mean NNE doesn't get snow..Just means there's no mixing Your right for your area that would be critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed. Just because it comes south doesn't mean NNE doesn't get snow..Just means there's no mixing Feet. GFS known warm bias lol at the blue - 30 stuff on the 5 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is there something wrong with the GFS 2m temperatures following the storm? It seems insanely cold, especially when the airmass itself is not (850s of -15C with surface temperature of -31F in ORH?) Could the very deep snowpack be playing havoc with the 2m temperatures on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I doubt this is all snow south of I-90 in NY and south of NH/VT border in NE. But certainly looks like a fun juicy storm. I'll be thrilled to get more than .5" qpf from an event this winter. Seems like 48+/-" is common along the spine of the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed. Just because it comes south doesn't mean NNE doesn't get snow..Just means there's no mixing I think that the Cold is going to be a brickwall that will help to skip this along more W-E. Going to be tough to drive this thing far N. I see it moving right under us, possibley to close for comfort for you but just about perfect for a spot at 42.42N / 72.94W. JB actually seems on to this one, however, that makes me nervous.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah it seems like the GFS is just forecasting insane radiation...model temperature of -23C at 986mb in ORH but a 2m temperature -35C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think that the Cold is going to be a brickwall that will help to skip this along more W-E. Going to be tough to drive this thing far N. I see it moving right under us, possibley to close for comfort for you but just about perfect for a spot at 42.42N / 72.94W. JB actually seems on to this one, however, that makes me nervous.lol Well JB gave himself about a 150 mi +/- area with his track depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IDk about wet, the only layer near freezing is 8h Still a long ways away. There's some cold air around, but blocking? I don't see any reason for this to pan out substantially colder than the models are showing, higher chance of becoming substantially warmer if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I doubt this is all snow south of I-90 in NY and south of NH/VT border in NE. But certainly looks like a fun juicy storm. I'll be thrilled to get more than .5" qpf from an event this winter. IDK, Seems to me this is one of those familiar situations where the mix line gets up to the Mid-Hudson Valley east through CT. These systems are high risk/ reward. I actually like them as in the past I've scored with this set-up. Worst case scenario some pl mixes in. However, I'm feeling good about starting an Epic Feb/March couplet right out of the gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone the Upstate side said that the Euro was all snow in BUF to UCA, but about 70% snow and 30% other in ALB . But ALB had .9" as snow first.... Does anyone know what the actual Euro track was? I'll just feel better when I see all northward adjustments end on the models. This one looks more classic La Nina...think events from 07-08.. IDK, Seems to me this is one of those familiar situations where the mix line gets up to the Mid-Hudson Valley east through CT. These systems are high risk/ reward. I actually like them as in the past I've scored with this set-up. Worst case scenario some pl mixes in. However, I'm feeling good about starting an Epic Feb/March couplet right out of the gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is steady Eddie. JB FTW?! Big Winter Incoming.Big Big Winter. Holy Mother of Roof Collapsing God. surprised to see JB so low on amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Practically all of eastern U.S. over .5" LE, but Madawaska FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Still a long ways away. There's some cold air around, but blocking? I don't see any reason for this to pan out substantially colder than the models are showing, higher chance of becoming substantially warmer if anything. Not likely to get too much warmer...good antecedent cold and strong PV to the north. I like the QPF depictions though with all of that moisture overrunning the arctic. This could be an epic qpf producer and perhaps not too windy either. 1-2 ft on top of what we have would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Practically all of eastern U.S. over .5" LE, but Madawaska FTL. They can't catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not likely to get too much warmer...good antecedent cold and strong PV to the north. I like the QPF depictions though with all of that moisture overrunning the arctic. This could be an epic qpf producer and perhaps not too windy either. 1-2 ft on top of what we have would be epic. Cold is no concern here, I don't think we are going to see much variation with the track from here on out unless we have a weaker system and it gets shunted south, But i don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IDK, Seems to me this is one of those familiar situations where the mix line gets up to the Mid-Hudson Valley east through CT. These systems are high risk/ reward. I actually like them as in the past I've scored with this set-up. Worst case scenario some pl mixes in. However, I'm feeling good about starting an Epic Feb/March couplet right out of the gate. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ugh sucks to see the Euro far north again at 00z. That's a lot of rain down here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone the Upstate side said that the Euro was all snow in BUF to UCA, but about 70% snow and 30% other in ALB . But ALB had .9" as snow first.... Does anyone know what the actual Euro track was? I'll just feel better when I see all northward adjustments end on the models. This one looks more classic La Nina...think events from 07-08.. I like where you sit, Rick. ALY's current call is a rn/sn mix in the southern half of their cwa. I'm certain that includes a N/S gradient wihtin the mix area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Great to see the Euro far north again at 00z. That's a lot of snow up here in CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ugh sucks to see the Euro far north again at 00z. That's a lot of rain down here in SNE. yes if you are riding the 0z solution. how did 0z ens. look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=gyx 18.7" on bufkit for GYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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