dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think this storm puts at least CNE and lower NNE on the path to a big winter. So far this is an average winter in terms of amounts, but with an epic stretch the last 4 weeks. SNE is in the midst of historic. This storm could help get us up here into something memorable and potentially historic going into Feb. It would also be great to see NNE score a foot or more on this because if blocking returns they could go dry for a while. All good points, The long range on the GFS has at least the potential for a couple more either SWFE's or Miller B type storms out towards the end of its run but thats like being out in space... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think this storm puts at least CNE and lower NNE on the path to a big winter. So far this is an average winter in terms of amounts, but with an epic stretch the last 4 weeks. SNE is in the midst of historic. This storm could help get us up here into something memorable and potentially historic going into Feb. It would also be great to see NNE score a foot or more on this because if blocking returns they could go dry for a while. I was thnking the same thing about CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah--the expansiveness and orientation of the qpf shield has me pretty confident I'm in a great spot in the current depictions. My biggest concern for the region is whether it trends warmer. It'll take a pretty significant shift for that to impact me. But, I think temp profiles will be the primary determiner of snow amounts for most. Right now, I'd be most comfortable in eastern NY/western areas of SNE/C-NNE. Least comfortable in areas south/east of there. Though I can't see this being warm enough to not provide net gain for just about all. Colder is possible, too. Actually thought that would be the case yesterday so was suprrised to see the GFS and EC come in warmer. I was thinking a little bit about the storm last year that steadfastly pushed a cold high out of the way. IIRC correctly, the more reliable voices here were thinking the models were likely wrong because we thought the cold high would win out. Wound up with a 'cold air cancel'. Am I making that one up? (Maybe it was the one that ended up dropping 2' on Pete and me/points west and heavy rain for everyone else) Yes, You and i and most up here are in a good posistion for this one, Southern areas are looking at a real mess of everything if this would track verbatium, These types of storms are what usually gives us here the most snows, I will take my chances with these all day long and the rest of the east coast can have the Miller A's, We saw how those usually work out for us here earlier this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Think you guys up there will get snow...but this is going to come south and trend colder..just be prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Think you guys up there will get snow...but this is going to come south and trend colder..just be prepared Remember even if it goes a little further south this is will have a large area of precip. I believe we all do well especially CNE South of the white mountains of NH into southern NE. coast may have mix issues as well as the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 19/15, weird combo of -sn and murk. Let's see, snow, Arctic cold, snow, Arctic cold, more snow. Yep, that works. More of the same this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Think you guys up there will get snow...but this is going to come south and trend colder..just be prepared Just like we're all getting 1-4" today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Think you guys up there will get snow...but this is going to come south and trend colder..just be prepared This storm will bring the ping to CT. At least it'll glacialize your pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just like we're all getting 1-4" today? Just about an inch here overnight, still flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just like we're all getting 1-4" today? Heavy dusting reported at KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here's ALY's comments this morning. They're going for a rn/sn mix for the southern half of their cwa attm. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE THICKNESS AND PLUMES...ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. IF THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS ARE CORRECT...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH TOWARD I90 ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT...A FEW OF THOSE MEMBERS SEEN IN THE GEFS PLUMES ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. SO...WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS R/S MIX AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. QPF/S FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RATHER HIGH. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 285K SURFACE SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...WE ADVECT 4 TO 6 G/KG FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT FOR THE REGION. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...WE ARE REMINDED OF MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT AS A COUPLE OF THOSE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE QPF. UNTIL THIS STORM OVER THE PACIFIC BECOMES SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND MENTIONS WITHIN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JB all over the southerly track It seems that an axis of 6-12 inch shows will develop 75 miles either side of the line from Springfield Missouri to Springfield Mass.. that axis passing a little south of Springfield Illinois though they are in the heavy snow as well as Chicago, over the Springfield in Ohio, north of the springfield I know of in Pa. From Springfield the axis should continue to Portsmouth. That is the centering axis. The increasing amounts of non snow cut into this further south and lighter precip further north. There should be a large area of freezing rain with this over the piedmont of the mid atlantic states and for a time before the change to snow in the plains as the arctic surges south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nobody is talking about the cold after the storm on the GFS, I have two nights of soundings that are literally off the sounding charts, - 30 stuff with dews somewhere, wow is that real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Feet and feet of sleet for you, Kevin. Where and how the hell would he shovel that with the "Glacier Tolland" in his front yard? Weenie flakes falling here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 No snow here, blue skies right now w/ a few clouds. Heavy heavy hz just below, Moneypit is right ; I've never seen so much AM valley fog or haze in a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just about an inch here overnight, still flakes flying. What's the depth up there at 2k? was thinking about it yesterday when I was at 1320' locally out measuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JB all over the southerly track It seems that an axis of 6-12 inch shows will develop 75 miles either side of the line from Springfield Missouri to Springfield Mass.. that axis passing a little south of Springfield Illinois though they are in the heavy snow as well as Chicago, over the Springfield in Ohio, north of the springfield I know of in Pa. From Springfield the axis should continue to Portsmouth. That is the centering axis. The increasing amounts of non snow cut into this further south and lighter precip further north. There should be a large area of freezing rain with this over the piedmont of the mid atlantic states and for a time before the change to snow in the plains as the arctic surges south JB has a storied history of being correct, so I will heed his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I was thnking the same thing about CNE/NNE. i'm thinking snow/sleet for interior S new england. all i can say is if we get 1.5 QPF roofs are gonna be a comin' down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Where and how the hell would he shovel that with the "Glacier Tolland" in his front yard? Weenie flakes falling here right now. The funny thing, before you know it he be starting threads about collecting snow melt to wash his car and filling the 'munk buckets. That will be after his 'roof collapse' and 'epic mud season' threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 "It seems that an axis of 6-12 inch shows will develop 75 miles either side of the line from Springfield Missouri to Springfield Mass.. that axis passing a little south of Springfield Illinois though they are in the heavy snow as well as Chicago, over the Springfield in Ohio, north of the springfield I know of in Pa. From Springfield the axis should continue to Portsmouth. That is the centering axis. The increasing amounts of non snow cut into this further south and lighter precip further north. There should be a large area of freezing rain with this over the piedmont of the mid atlantic states and for a time before the change to snow in the plains as the arctic surges south" basically sounds like the model concensus - heavy snow axis basically NW CT to PSM, mixing south of there, lighter qpf north. However, 150 mi wiggle room....that's a locked forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The funny thing, before you know it he be starting threads about collecting snow melt to wash his car and filling the 'munk buckets. That will be after his 'roof collapse' and 'epic mud season' threads. And around the same time as Ginx's 'Severe Flooding' thread. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 "It seems that an axis of 6-12 inch shows will develop 75 miles either side of the line from Springfield Missouri to Springfield Mass.. that axis passing a little south of Springfield Illinois though they are in the heavy snow as well as Chicago, over the Springfield in Ohio, north of the springfield I know of in Pa. From Springfield the axis should continue to Portsmouth. That is the centering axis. The increasing amounts of non snow cut into this further south and lighter precip further north. There should be a large area of freezing rain with this over the piedmont of the mid atlantic states and for a time before the change to snow in the plains as the arctic surges south" basically sounds like the model concensus - heavy snow axis basically NW CT to PSM, mixing south of there, lighter qpf north. However, 150 mi wiggle room....that's a locked forecast 75 miles either side of Springfield Mass for 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 "It seems that an axis of 6-12 inch shows will develop 75 miles either side of the line from Springfield Missouri to Springfield Mass.. that axis passing a little south of Springfield Illinois though they are in the heavy snow as well as Chicago, over the Springfield in Ohio, north of the springfield I know of in Pa. From Springfield the axis should continue to Portsmouth. That is the centering axis. The increasing amounts of non snow cut into this further south and lighter precip further north. There should be a large area of freezing rain with this over the piedmont of the mid atlantic states and for a time before the change to snow in the plains as the arctic surges south" basically sounds like the model concensus - heavy snow axis basically NW CT to PSM, mixing south of there, lighter qpf north. However, 150 mi wiggle room....that's a locked forecast Based on the depicted qpf, I hope his range of 6-12 is a big fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The funny thing, before you know it he be starting threads about collecting snow melt to wash his car and filling the 'munk buckets. That will be after his 'roof collapse' and 'epic mud season' threads. Where would we be without me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Think you guys up there will get snow...but this is going to come south and trend colder..just be prepared Old boy scout, Always prepared, But, If i was you, I would be on guard as well if it stays where it is, We are bound for one here sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is steady Eddie. JB FTW?! Big Winter Incoming.Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Based on the depicted qpf, I hope his range of 6-12 is a big fail. Odd that he of all forecasters would be going easy on the accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is steady Eddie. JB FTW?! Big Winter Incoming.Big Big Winter. Got to luv the clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kev better hope for a little south trend. I do think he'll get a bump in that direction but not much. I like these set-ups. Prolonged period of Accumulating snow. Very favorable outlook for the East Slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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