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Epic winter signal continues to beam


Typhoon Tip

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that would be interesting to find out. I'm always looking for weenie parcels to invest in even though it's kind of a pipe dream for the next couple years.

Don't quote me, as the laws may have changed since I worked in NH back in the 80s, but I believe NH has a "rural lands" zoning district that is applied to privately owned land that is not "on the beaten trail". I don't believe there is a restriction against building on those lands, other than code or environmental. I would say that theoretically you could build a cabin on any privately owned land in the state.

I'd think that there are significant wood and paper company private holdings across the north lands. You could call Georgia Pacific or Weyerhouser and see if they want to sell anything.

The last I knew there was a small privately owned parcel of real estate near the summit of Mount Washington, so I would say that in theory that's your place!

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Don't quote me, as the laws may have changed since I worked in NH back in the 80s, but I believe NH has a "rural lands" zoning district that is applied to privately owned land that is not "on the beaten trail". I don't believe there is a restriction against building on those lands, other than code or environmental. I would say that theoretically you could build a cabin on any privately owned land in the state.

I'd think that there are significant wood and paper company private holdings across the north lands. You could call Georgia Pacific or Weyerhouser and see if they want to sell anything.

The last I knew there was a small privately owned parcel of real estate near the summit of Mount Washington, so I would say that in theory that's your place!

I'll have to look into all of that this weekend. Thanks for the information.

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Nothing is going to warm us at the surface with that HP draining mighty cold down. Do you remember 1993-94? Every one of those storms was modeled like this. Overrunning is always over warmed by models it seems in this type of pattern. I have no doubt it will give us plenty of snow and little sleet. Remember this winter's pattern. It's not changing next week.

'

;

Agreed...Anyone worried about warming and rain with this on the coast shouldn't be

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It seems as if we are entering more of a gradient pattern with very cold air over Canada due to the PV but a bit of a SE ridge popping up. Despite continued blocking over Alaska and the Bering Strait, the PNA is definitely trending neutral/negative as we head towards the first days of February...this -EPO/-PNA pattern is definitely a signal for a SWFE regime that benefits NNE much more than the coastal plain down here. We've also lost the incredible NAO blocking that we enjoyed in December, so there's definitely hints of a more Niña-like pattern despite this being such an odd winter. However, I still need to see this SW flow event happen to believe it, as we've had so many storms trend south and turn into Miller B coastals this winter. Although the longwave trough orientation doesn't look favorable for a big coastal, you never know in Winter 10-11...

And yes, we have been incredibly lucky this year. I have 56" on the season with almost 2' of snowpack right now; we definitely don't deserve this much. I think we're in for an epic March as the NAO blocking resurrects itself with hints of a warming stratosphere, as well as continued signs of Canada being cold, so the winter is certainly not over for NYC metro. We may have to get through a couple of SW flow events first, although these tend to be much better in the northern suburbs than NYC itself...I remember my house had 5.5" on 1/28/09 and then changed to ice while Central Park didn't do nearly as well.

Your stats are interesting to me because you have otg and for the season almost exactly what I have. I also think your sense of where this is heading is right. I think we up here really benefit with the current pattern and then we go back to blocking and you guys score again. So you guys might suffer a bit for a a little while, but doesnt look like a torch.....you get a nice icy crust and don't lose much snowpack while locking it up with the cold air that is coming down. You are gonna need some polartec tubers man

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There's lots of mixing issues on this particular run of the GFS, but I wouldn't worry too much about it... yet. The ensemble guidance agrees with ops, but both the GFS and Euro have had a warm bias this winter. The track of the surface low wasn't terribly different, so I'd still guess that north of the Ohio River is looking at decent snow out of this run.

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My guess this looks look like it will be a solid tainted system for most providing net gain. I'm feeling pretty comfortable where I am. But, the EC coming in warmer (and I think GFS has done the same--at least with 06 run?), I'm temperating my enthusiasm a bit. But, unless something totally disastrous happens, I'm feeling good about the NW areas from Litchfiled Count through northern worcester and above. Fun times.

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I'm not sure if I recall a winter where we've had so much foggy weather. There have been many mornings with fog iti seems, though I have not kept count.

At least it's not fog associated with a torch that gobbles a snowpack.

Just got back from the dog walk and i was thinking the exact same thing. Down in my yard there is no fog but the hills behind the house are @ 600-700' and the tops are obscured.

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I think this storm puts at least CNE and lower NNE on the path to a big winter. So far this is an average winter in terms of amounts, but with an epic stretch the last 4 weeks. SNE is in the midst of historic. This storm could help get us up here into something memorable and potentially historic going into Feb. It would also be great to see NNE score a foot or more on this because if blocking returns they could go dry for a while.

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I'm wary (not 'weary') of a shift south just because SNE is the killzone this year. I'll probably be nervous about that until it's over.

But it does look very nice right now. :snowman:

stranger things have happened...but....this kind of storm with a lot of overrunning and an expansive precip field has me less worried. If it were a coastal/Miller B only then I'd worry more.

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Well, It would have to go pretty far south, The precip field is pretty expansive.

Yeah--the expansiveness and orientation of the qpf shield has me pretty confident I'm in a great spot in the current depictions. My biggest concern for the region is whether it trends warmer. It'll take a pretty significant shift for that to impact me. But, I think temp profiles will be the primary determiner of snow amounts for most. Right now, I'd be most comfortable in eastern NY/western areas of SNE/C-NNE. Least comfortable in areas south/east of there. Though I can't see this being warm enough to not provide net gain for just about all.

Colder is possible, too. Actually thought that would be the case yesterday so was suprrised to see the GFS and EC come in warmer. I was thinking a little bit about the storm last year that steadfastly pushed a cold high out of the way. IIRC correctly, the more reliable voices here were thinking the models were likely wrong because we thought the cold high would win out. Wound up with a 'cold air cancel'. Am I making that one up? (Maybe it was the one that ended up dropping 2' on Pete and me/points west and heavy rain for everyone else)

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