Epic winter signal continues to beam

[CoastalWx]

lol...

So I guess the "2". Thanks.

Well it's close. Maybe a hair less. I'm including the overrunning crap too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There's always the exception but at 96-120 it's tooled most other guidance this winter in general. If the euro ensembles are on board after 12z get the buckets of ice melt

5 days ago the euro was a mixed mess for this last event.

Night

[dendrite]

Well it's close. Maybe a hair less. I'm including the overrunning crap too.

Heck...I'd be happy with 0.75-1.00" QPF. I'm fine with piling up with warning criteria events. Anything over 1" is gravy to me. Of course this will end up either jackpotting Will or powderfreak when all is said and done.

[nzucker]

Well it's close. Maybe a hair less. I'm including the overrunning crap too.

Not SNE, but how does this look down here? I hear the 850mb freezing line doesn't get past my area (HPN) until 102, but is the QPF juicy at that point? Would surface temperatures be colder than what the ECM shows verbatim given the low-level cold air associated with the PV to the north?

[Ginx snewx]

I know that......I'm taking about with respect to snow, of which there is hardly and s of the NH border.

I find this hard to believe....N of the pike is gonna pull a decent snow out of this, even in V day we did.

You are primetime, Deion Sanders, in the zone, Michael Jordon, smelling the bat burning when you swing, Ted Williams ,Euro overshoots you rebound for the winning basket as time runs out, game set match McEnroe .

[CoastalWx]

PD II shifted N......I'd wanna hang myself.

Shoud get at least 6", somehow.

Probably will...even a net gainer for you. It can stop going north now.

It's really fighting that PV. It's probably gonna be a canal cutter, if it does come this far north, but the euro brought some of my fears to the table. I'll be happy with a few inches of snow to limit the rain damage. Lets hope 12z runs stop the trend.

[dendrite]

Not SNE, but how does this look down here? I hear the 850mb freezing line doesn't get past my area (HPN) until 102, but is the QPF juicy at that point? Would surface temperatures be colder than what the ECM shows verbatim given the low-level cold air associated with the PV to the north?

Not juicy. Just light WAA precip. The real deal gets into HPN 102-108. At 108 NYC is up to +4C 850s.

[CoastalWx]

Not SNE, but how does this look down here? I hear the 850mb freezing line doesn't get past my area (HPN) until 102, but is the QPF juicy at that point? Would surface temperatures be colder than what the ECM shows verbatim given the low-level cold air associated with the PV to the north?

It looks like you would get a couple of inches possible in overrunning snows. The good qpf doesn't come until the low is closer, but by then it may be rain or IP/ZR changing to rain.

[Ginx snewx]

Probably will...even a net gainer for you. It can stop going north now.

It's really fighting that PV. It's probably gonna be a canal cutter, if it does come this far north, but the euro brought some of my fears to the table. I'll be happy with a few inches of snow to limit the rain damage. Lets hope 12z runs stop the trend.

Windshield wiper, front end loaded followed by heavy cold Night chicos see ya mania.

[dendrite]

It looks like you would get a couple of inches possible in overrunning snows. The good qpf doesn't come until the low is closer, but by then it may be rain or IP/ZR changing to rain.

Yeah...the WAA isn't awful. Looks like 0.25" for HPN by 102hr when 0C is up to him.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Probably will...even a net gainer for you. It can stop going north now.

It's really fighting that PV. It's probably gonna be a canal cutter, if it does come this far north, but the euro brought some of my fears to the table. I'll be happy with a few inches of snow to limit the rain damage. Lets hope 12z runs stop the trend.

It absolutely will.....this is classic 2007-08.

[CoastalWx]

Heck...I'd be happy with 0.75-1.00" QPF. I'm fine with piling up with warning criteria events. Anything over 1" is gravy to me. Of course this will end up either jackpotting Will or powderfreak when all is said and done.

LOL. Well hopefully we all can share. Looking at 500, the euro changed it's tune a bit with the depiction of the trough in the Plains...although the outcome is still what we see tonight. I'll give it another day. If we see the trend stop..I'll feel better.

[CoastalWx]

Alright I'm beat. Night all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel very good about a warning criteria event N of the pike....regardless of what models show from here on out, climo is a rather large consideration and when mid level temps are the primary determinant....this area cleans up.

[nzucker]

It looks like you would get a couple of inches possible in overrunning snows. The good qpf doesn't come until the low is closer, but by then it may be rain or IP/ZR changing to rain.

Yeah, that's what I gathered. The track of the storm really torches the I-95 corridor with the low moving up through Pennsylvania/Ohio and then reforming, but I'll believe it when I see it...how many systems have taken that track in the past few years, and especially this season? The ECM also tends to have a warm bias so this could become more of an ice storm threat than what is currently showing up, as the 0z GFS never really moved the 2m freezing line north of NYC. I didn't like the trends tonight, though....seems as if the polar vortex is staying too far north to introduce much low-level cold, and the initial shortwave setting up the overrunning is trending stronger which means more SW flow at H5 ahead of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, that's what I gathered. The track of the storm really torches the I-95 corridor with the low moving up through Pennsylvania/Ohio and then reforming, but I'll believe it when I see it...how many systems have taken that track in the past few years, and especially this season? The ECM also tends to have a warm bias so this could become more of an ice storm threat than what is currently showing up, as the 0z GFS never really moved the 2m freezing line north of NYC. I didn't like the trends tonight, though....seems as if the polar vortex is staying too far north to introduce much low-level cold, and the initial shortwave setting up the overrunning is trending stronger which means more SW flow at H5 ahead of it.

Tons.

That was the predominate track of 2007-08 and to a lesser degree, 2008-09.

[nzucker]

Tons.

Really? I don't remember many SW flow events last winter or this year...this looks more like an 07-08 style slop storm, hated that winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Really? I don't remember many SW flow events last winter or this year...this looks more like an 07-08 style slop storm, hated that winter.

Right, you said over the last "few" years, which I interpret as 3 years back.

Not relevant, anyway.......we are seeing that type of patter, now.

[dendrite]

Yeah, that's what I gathered. The track of the storm really torches the I-95 corridor with the low moving up through Pennsylvania/Ohio and then reforming, but I'll believe it when I see it...how many systems have taken that track in the past few years, and especially this season? The ECM also tends to have a warm bias so this could become more of an ice storm threat than what is currently showing up, as the 0z GFS never really moved the 2m freezing line north of NYC. I didn't like the trends tonight, though....seems as if the polar vortex is staying too far north to introduce much low-level cold, and the initial shortwave setting up the overrunning is trending stronger which means more SW flow at H5 ahead of it.

It's basically a classic SWFE with coastal redeveloper. We've had a lot of these going back to 2007. We were expecting more of them this winter, but the insane blocking played havoc with that. Now that the blocking has let up the SWFEs are popping up again.

[dendrite]

Really? I don't remember many SW flow events last winter or this year...this looks more like an 07-08 style slop storm, hated that winter.

Time for NYC to fall back to climo.

[simpsonsbuff]

OOOOOOOOOOO baby, this sounds good. Right around or a little less than 2 at KLEB?

[nzucker]

Time for NYC to fall back to climo.

It seems as if we are entering more of a gradient pattern with very cold air over Canada due to the PV but a bit of a SE ridge popping up. Despite continued blocking over Alaska and the Bering Strait, the PNA is definitely trending neutral/negative as we head towards the first days of February...this -EPO/-PNA pattern is definitely a signal for a SWFE regime that benefits NNE much more than the coastal plain down here. We've also lost the incredible NAO blocking that we enjoyed in December, so there's definitely hints of a more Niña-like pattern despite this being such an odd winter. However, I still need to see this SW flow event happen to believe it, as we've had so many storms trend south and turn into Miller B coastals this winter. Although the longwave trough orientation doesn't look favorable for a big coastal, you never know in Winter 10-11...

And yes, we have been incredibly lucky this year. I have 56" on the season with almost 2' of snowpack right now; we definitely don't deserve this much. I think we're in for an epic March as the NAO blocking resurrects itself with hints of a warming stratosphere, as well as continued signs of Canada being cold, so the winter is certainly not over for NYC metro. We may have to get through a couple of SW flow events first, although these tend to be much better in the northern suburbs than NYC itself...I remember my house had 5.5" on 1/28/09 and then changed to ice while Central Park didn't do nearly as well.

[jm1220]

It seems as if we are entering more of a gradient pattern with very cold air over Canada due to the PV but a bit of a SE ridge popping up. Despite continued blocking over Alaska and the Bering Strait, the PNA is definitely trending neutral/negative as we head towards the first days of February...this -EPO/-PNA pattern is definitely a signal for a SWFE regime that benefits NNE much more than the coastal plain down here. We've also lost the incredible NAO blocking that we enjoyed in December, so there's definitely hints of a more Niña-like pattern despite this being such an odd winter. However, I still need to see this SW flow event happen to believe it, as we've had so many storms trend south and turn into Miller B coastals this winter. Although the longwave trough orientation doesn't look favorable for a big coastal, you never know in Winter 10-11...

And yes, we have been incredibly lucky this year. I have 56" on the season with almost 2' of snowpack right now; we definitely don't deserve this much. I think we're in for an epic March as the NAO blocking resurrects itself with hints of a warming stratosphere, as well as continued signs of Canada being cold, so the winter is certainly not over for NYC metro. We may have to get through a couple of SW flow events first, although these tend to be much better in the northern suburbs than NYC itself...I remember my house had 5.5" on 1/28/09 and then changed to ice while Central Park didn't do nearly as well.

We need the blocky west -NAO to come back. Just playing the odds during this kind of Nina will burn us almost every time. We got extremely lucky during the last one and we need to luck out again. Just too much probability for the SE ridge to pop its ugly head.

With enough of a preexisting cold air dome, we can luck out for a time but if it weakens on future runs most of us south of Hartford are probably toast. As long as I don't hit the 40s again during the storm I probably keep a lot of the snowcover though and it turns to a cement afterwards.

[earthlight]

Epic gradient setup for you guys. I was kinda expecting this to develop earlier in January but the blocking held on a bit longer, and then the PNA went nuts and delayed it's onset. But it's been trying to set up for a while. The antecedent airmass is so good, too...everybody should do pretty well N of HPN with at least a good bit of snow before a changeover to sleet (reserved to S of the Pike most likely).

I'm going to have a ton of fun tracking this one...I really enjoyed forecasting them in '07'-08 and it's been a while. Good luck to all of you guys, wishing you feet and feet of snow

[earthlight]

OOOOOOOOOOO baby, this sounds good. Right around or a little less than 2 at KLEB?

Dude, I still have that text from you on Dec 26.. "initialization errors of numerous diagnostic quantities..."...makes me LOL every time.

[ORH_wxman]

It seems as if we are entering more of a gradient pattern with very cold air over Canada due to the PV but a bit of a SE ridge popping up. Despite continued blocking over Alaska and the Bering Strait, the PNA is definitely trending neutral/negative as we head towards the first days of February...this -EPO/-PNA pattern is definitely a signal for a SWFE regime that benefits NNE much more than the coastal plain down here. We've also lost the incredible NAO blocking that we enjoyed in December, so there's definitely hints of a more Niña-like pattern despite this being such an odd winter. However, I still need to see this SW flow event happen to believe it, as we've had so many storms trend south and turn into Miller B coastals this winter. Although the longwave trough orientation doesn't look favorable for a big coastal, you never know in Winter 10-11...

And yes, we have been incredibly lucky this year. I have 56" on the season with almost 2' of snowpack right now; we definitely don't deserve this much. I think we're in for an epic March as the NAO blocking resurrects itself with hints of a warming stratosphere, as well as continued signs of Canada being cold, so the winter is certainly not over for NYC metro. We may have to get through a couple of SW flow events first, although these tend to be much better in the northern suburbs than NYC itself...I remember my house had 5.5" on 1/28/09 and then changed to ice while Central Park didn't do nearly as well.

We had a SWFE on Jan 18th.

[simpsonsbuff]

Dude, I still have that text from you on Dec 26.. "initialization errors of numerous diagnostic quantities..."...makes me LOL every time.

HA! Still HAVE ZERO idea what they were thinking... I'm not a great forecaster on my own, but I do know how to aggregate thoughts and weed out of the BS.

[nzucker]

We need the blocky west -NAO to come back. Just playing the odds during this kind of Nina will burn us almost every time. We got extremely lucky during the last one and we need to luck out again. Just too much probability for the SE ridge to pop its ugly head.

With enough of a preexisting cold air dome, we can luck out for a time but if it weakens on future runs most of us south of Hartford are probably toast. As long as I don't hit the 40s again during the storm I probably keep a lot of the snowcover though and it turns to a cement afterwards.

I'm not sure we got lucky in the last storm; we had a strong -EPO/+PNA pattern due to the MJO moving into Phase 8, and this allowed for a favorable track of the system. We've had a lot of KU events with the MJO in Phase 8, so I don't think the teleconnections were that bad for the Gulf Low. That being said, I would like to see the models develop a bit more NAO blocking in the longer range; if we don't have a -NAO, we have to depend on the polar vortex to sit over Hudson Bay/Quebec instead of retreating farther north and allowing a SE ridge to build underneath it, which seems to be happening for this storm. It appears we're losing the +PNA while maintaining a -EPO block, which means that the I-95 corridor should see more snow-->ice or snow-->rain events with SW flow events becoming more common. There's a big difference between your area and mine, though....you tend to jackpot in big coastals but don't have the ability to rack up 3-5" snow in every SWFE like the northern suburbs can. So I don't feel totally dead in the water in this pattern by any means.

We had a SWFE on Jan 18th.

Yes, that's true...I had sort of forgotten about that event given the madness of all the recent coastals, but we had 1.5" snow here followed by tons of freezing rain before the changeover; schools were closed across Westchester with truly terrible road conditions. I know NNE did pretty well in that storm. What I meant was mostly in regards to how warm and amplified the 0z ECM came in; it seemed to do this with the last storm, too, and then backed off enough to keep everyone from DC north all snow. I doubt we see a traditional coastal with the trough axis aligned so far west, but I think it's possible the low pressure transfers earlier to save NYC north from flooding rains. The GFS seems to be a bit more in tune with what I'd expect for temperature profiles given the intense PV to our north, giving us all a good front-end dump of snow and then changing to freezing rain for southern areas without too much liquid. There's a fine line between a 93-94 type epic overrunning event and a warm SWFE that only hits NNE, and I feel we're riding that line right now.

[centralmass]

Nice temp on the Worcester bufkit

110204/1200Z 156 31003KT -31.2F

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_korh.dat

[free_man]

We should seriously have an elevation real estate thread. I wonder what the highest residential zoned property is in NH.

that would be interesting to find out. I'm always looking for weenie parcels to invest in even though it's kind of a pipe dream for the next couple years.