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Epic winter signal continues to beam


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah, rough down here. Snow to PL/ZR and then maybe rain?

That would be an ugly storm for people with 30" of snow OTG lol

Looks like a foot of snow with a sleet mix/frzra coast to snow flash freeze. Think trend goes back south some starting tomorrow, still think major major storm for a whole lot of people. Wow

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I don't see how this is a good trend for SNE. Looks like the Lakes region gets hammered with this on the 00z GFS. Snow-Ice outside 128

Nothing is going to warm us at the surface with that HP draining mighty cold down. Do you remember 1993-94? Every one of those storms was modeled like this. Overrunning is always over warmed by models it seems in this type of pattern. I have no doubt it will give us plenty of snow and little sleet. Remember this winter's pattern. It's not changing next week.

'

;

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Nothing is going to warm us at the surface with that HP draining mighty cold down. Do you remember 1993-94? Every one of those storms was modeled like this. Overrunning is always over warmed by models it seems in this type of pattern. I have no doubt it will give us plenty of snow and little sleet. Remember this winter's pattern. It's not changing next week.

'

;

Yeah Im going to agree. Seasonal trend FTW. Outcome likely in the same neighborhood of recent storms even with a differences in pattern.

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I like where I sit with this storm, again. If it goes south, Im still far enough south where I should get some good snows most likely. If its warmer I still get a good dump before some ice, bring the snowpack into the 30s. In the middle and I get the jackpot with 12+ possible.

Of course, this could trend into a lakes cutter, but I dont see it happening.

My guess IMBY

major 8+ snowstorm: 50% chance

major snowstorm with taint: 40%

suppresion: 1%

cuts west/non wintry solution: 9%

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Gotta love how horrible the GFS 2m temps are...especially in the LR.

Date: 6.5 day AVN valid 12Z FRI  4 FEB 11
Station: KFWN
Latitude:   41.20
Longitude: -74.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   227                                                                 
SFC  998   240 -35.6 -36.2  95  0.5 -35.7 324   2 237.6 237.7 237.6 238.1  0.17
 2  950   608 -15.7 -33.0  21 17.4 -17.6 141   3 261.3 261.3 258.7 262.0  0.25
 3  900  1018 -13.3 -40.0   9 26.7 -16.1 171   8 267.8 267.8 263.4 268.2  0.13

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Not that it matters, but I have to think I sleet this run because the H85 0c line gets so close at hr 120....even if it doesn't quite make it to me, my H7-8 temps must sh** the bed at least brielfy at the height.

You're safe verbatim this run. H85 is the warmest layer.
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