OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some people in CT are having the deepest snow depth they've ever had...I'm aiming for March 2001 depths, but it will be tough to reach unless we get another really big storm or a couple moderate events with little melting in between. Right now my depths are similar to February 2008 IMBY. Waaays off from March 2001 for me. I was too young to remember specifics, but from the images I can recall, we must have had 40" on the ground. What do you think? Any measurements to back that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quite a bit of SE ridging on the 00z NAM. Would probably be north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'll say this...the people here are real winter wx die-hards. To be so into this next threat within two days of the past epic storm. I probably would have taken a few days to just chill out and enjoy the scenery before jumping back in. I honestly haven't been following this threat, I'm still trying to recover from the blitzing we got the other night. I've literally never seen a snowpack like this in Westchester, to have two feet of snowpack on the coastal plain from NJ to MA is just impressive...This next event looks to be something out of the 93-94 winter's book with lots of mixed precipitation as the PV to our north locks in cold air at the surface but ridging develops at 500mb with a more neutral PNA index. I'd love to see more snow but as a delivery driver and per-diem substitute teacher, it's been a costly month with all these storms, consistently poor road conditions, and multiple snow days/early dismissals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I honestly haven't been following this threat, I'm still trying to recover from the blitzing we got the other night. I've literally never seen a snowpack like this in Westchester, to have two feet of snowpack on the coastal plain from NJ to MA is just impressive...This next event looks to be something out of the 93-94 winter's book with lots of mixed precipitation as the PV to our north locks in cold air at the surface but ridging develops at 500mb with a more neutral PNA index. I'd love to see more snow but as a delivery driver and per-diem substitute teacher, it's been a costly month with all these storms, consistently poor road conditions, and multiple snow days/early dismissals. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gotta love the 1056mb high N of MT on the end of the run of the SREFs. Not bad for a mean. baroclinic_instability, on 28 January 2011 - 10:19 PM, said:Now that we are getting into the short range--there is one very clear thing--the low level baroclinic zone is going to be nearly epic scale type stuff. I haven't seen such a concentrated polar front that far S in a very long time. The moist low level theta-e field across the warm sector in the vicinity of the ejecting baroclinic wave will lend itself to rapid non-linear cyclogenesis development--and as a result--tiny changes in the strength of the Pacific cyclone, phasing, and eventual ejecting wave over the plains is something that should be monitored closely. This will have a significant impact on the development of the low level cyclone/track/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL, as much snow as we have it's really not a problem here. Lot's of room to push it out of the way. I went by Liston's this afternoon and they were doing a booming business. Lot's of snowmachines in the lot. Trails are in great shape. oh yeah I bet. There's some good riding to be had around your parts, as long as we have the snow. Not as much of a need to go north. Great for business throughout the Berkshires. I just hope the crazies keep it under control. Our trails aren't like up north, much narrower etc. I pray there aren't the bad stories coming..... The snowbanks are getting crazy here though, merging onto highways etc. Really dangerous, can't even believe what it would be like with another foot plus next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 oh yeah I bet. There's some good riding to be had around your parts, as long as we have the snow. Not as much of a need to go north. Great for business throughout the Berkshires. I just hope the crazies keep it under control. Our trails aren't like up north, much narrower etc. I pray there aren't the bad stories coming..... The snowbanks are getting crazy here though, merging onto highways etc. Really dangerous, can't even believe what it would be like with another foot plus next week. This is a huge issue. Even here, where this has been a fairly mediocre year (a little above avg), the fact that most of the snow has been in 3-4 weeks has made huge bankings. I've had several "interesting" merge/pull out type things happen over the last 2 weeks. (finally got to use that one!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol. Try driving on narrow, winding two-way streets, a car parked on each side, with 3' snowbanks all over the place, slush and black ice covering the road...then imagine doing this in the insanely heavy traffic you have in the NYC metro area during rush hour. This is what I deal with on a nightly basis at my job. I'm sure road conditions up there are worse in absolute terms, but there's far more space to be navigated, more margin for error in the event of a skid, and fewer crazy, cell-phone clutching soccer moms to smash their SUV into yours. Having this much snow in such a densely populated area with so little room to maneuver is way different from driving on snowy roads in VT, which I've experienced many times. The 18z GFS looks to be snow-->sleet-->snow for extreme SNE/NYC metro with all snow up there. 0z NAM looks more amplified and may lead to a cutter that goes from ice to rain. We have a very potent cold air source to our north with the PV parked over Hudson Bay/Northern Quebec, but I'm definitely worried about this storm tracking to our west with the breakdown of the -NAO we've seen the last few weeks and a moderating PNA signal. Interestingly, it may be the SW flow event that NNE has been waiting for while everyone else deals with a sloppy/icy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 oh yeah I bet. There's some good riding to be had around your parts, as long as we have the snow. Not as much of a need to go north. Great for business throughout the Berkshires. I just hope the crazies keep it under control. Our trails aren't like up north, much narrower etc. I pray there aren't the bad stories coming..... The snowbanks are getting crazy here though, merging onto highways etc. Really dangerous, can't even believe what it would be like with another foot plus next week. What is this 'highway' that you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Try driving on narrow, winding two-way streets, a car parked on each side, with 3' snowbanks all over the place, slush and black ice covering the road...then imagine doing this in the insanely heavy traffic you have in the NYC metro area during rush hour. This is what I deal with on a nightly basis at my job. I'm sure road conditions up there are worse in absolute terms, but there's far more space to be navigated, more margin for error in the event of a skid, and fewer crazy, cell-phone clutching soccer moms to smash their SUV into yours. Having this much snow in such a densely populated area with so little room to maneuver is way different from driving on snowy roads in VT, which I've experienced many times. The 18z GFS looks to be snow-->sleet-->snow for extreme SNE/NYC metro with all snow up there. 0z NAM looks more amplified and may lead to a cutter that goes from ice to rain. We have a very potent cold air source to our north with the PV parked over Hudson Bay/Northern Quebec, but I'm definitely worried about this storm tracking to our west with the breakdown of the -NAO we've seen the last few weeks and a moderating PNA signal. Interestingly, it may be the SW flow event that NNE has been waiting for while everyone else deals with a sloppy/icy mess. Don't worry. You were worried about a torch January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is this 'highway' that you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Don't worry. You were worried about a torch January. Just shows you how accurate long-range forecasting is...I, along with many other mets, thought this winter was going to be a messy one for our area with progressively warmer conditions...and look what happened! The hits just keep on coming in Winter 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just shows you how accurate long-range forecasting is...I, along with many other mets, thought this winter was going to be a messy one for our area with progressively warmer conditions...and look what happened! The hits just keep on coming in Winter 10-11 Other Mets?! lol I'm more worried about suppression than a cutter. I could see this pushed south but a western/cutter solution seems unlikely with what's on the table currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Did you get much with this last one? I saw Savoy only got like 3" and Pittsfield an inch. In the HV.. POU got 3" to give an idea of the northern limits.... quote name='ski MRG' timestamp='1296272900' post='388624'] Other Mets?! lol I'm more worried about suppression than a cutter. I could see this pushed south but a western/cutter solution seems unlikely with what's on the table currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How 1994-esque does the GFS look at 96 hours. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How 1994-esque does the GFS look at 96 hours. Wow. What does that mean for all of ne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How 1994-esque does the GFS look at 96 hours. Wow. 2010-11. To me, it's a combination of 1960-61 and 1993-94. I'm leaving 1995-96 out because of the spectacular and fairly long torches in Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How 1994-esque does the GFS look at 96 hours. Wow. Now that would be nice to see happen... It's not pointing too far west, is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2010-11. To me, it's a combination of 1960-61 and 1993-94. I'm leaving 1995-96 out because of the spectacular and fairly long torches in Jan and Feb. We will need to forget all past winters after this one. I think we call this "the new benchmark winter of 2010 2011" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now that would be nice to see happen... It's not pointing too far west, is it? Nevermind... nails NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS gets pretty warm at 120. Still a nice hit for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS gets pretty warm at 120. Still a nice hit for most. Will trend colder... all that snow on the ground...and stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Will trend colder... all that snow on the ground...and stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS gets pretty warm at 120. Still a nice hit for most. Yeah, rough down here. Snow to PL/ZR and then maybe rain? That would be an ugly storm for people with 30" of snow OTG lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Big snow and sleet dump next week. I'm thinking we're going all the way to huge records this year. The pattern is locked and it's as if the teleconnections are working together to keep us wintry. NAO hands off to EPO who hands of to PNA/AO handing off to NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks good for interior MA up through NNE Maybe Mica Vim Toot will get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is wicked cold Thursday/Friday Would like the Euro to tick colder on Wednesday's storm and not trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is wicked cold Thursday/Friday Would like the Euro to tick colder on Wednesday's storm and not trend north. -22C H85 here. With deep snow. Oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, rough down here. Snow to PL/ZR and then maybe rain? That would be an ugly storm for people with 30" of snow OTG lol Isn't it a whole bunch of ZR @ hr 120 verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Big snow and sleet dump next week. I'm thinking we're going all the way to huge records this year. The pattern is locked and it's as if the teleconnections are working together to keep us wintry. NAO hands off to EPO who hands of to PNA/AO handing off to NAO. I don't see how this is a good trend for SNE. Looks like the Lakes region gets hammered with this on the 00z GFS. Snow-Ice outside 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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