CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That high is in a nice position for some messenger OES too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS looks just south of the euro. It's been trending a little more north with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0 line south of hartford at 126, transitioning offshore. Good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Great event on the 18z GFS verbatim. Might get some pingers up into S CT and maybe to HFD-PVD...but a lot of qpf...over an inch of qpf. All snow though for N of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS looks just south of the euro. It's been trending a little more north with each run. Yeah, I don't like that. I think this really could be sort of a gross wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'd love for the GFS to verify. All snow with another 12 hrs of bonus light snow with n-ne winds and a srfc trough hanging back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, I don't like that. I think this really could be sort of a gross wintry mix Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'd love for the GFS to verify. All snow with another 12 hrs of bonus light snow with n-ne winds and a srfc trough hanging back. Yeah it never totally shuts it off until later Thursday afternoon. I'm weary of this trending into a front end snow to paint peeler though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah it never totally shuts it off until later Thursday afternoon. I'm weary of this trending into a front end snow to paint peeler though. By Wed I will be SN to PL and BTV will be in 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yuck. considering the number of roof and building collapses we've seen here in CT I think snow, sleet, ZR would really be problematic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 They can have some good winters down there in the right pattern. I will forever be jealous of Jan 2005 on the cape as I will never ever see that in the spfd area...i have friends who were there during the storm and were awestruck with just how epic it was...and then to get eight to ten inches a few days later!!!!! the only ones who can compete with that kind of thing are those in sw sc ct this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By Wed I will be SN to PL and BTV will be in 8-14". Lets keep it ticking north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like as of right now this will be starting Wednesday midday. I hope this can stay put and not slow down to Wednesday night. A nice daytime storm instead of 3-6am peaks we seem to be getting would be nice. Im getting picky with my snowstorms I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here's a map I threw together because I am bored and have no life. There is definitely small errors all over the place on it. A cool little map of our climate and area though. Foothills are just to my NW by 15 miles, The mtn section is to wide, The foothills should be increased and the mtn section should only be about 2" NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0 line south of hartford at 126, transitioning offshore. Good run whats your total thus far this season and current depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I found the ALY AFD pretty good this afternoon. BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE EASTERN U.S. SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TIME WINDOW OF LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE TIMES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL NORTHEASTERN U.S. IMPACT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT GETS CLOSER. INTERESTING THAT 2 YEARS AGO A BIG STORM WAS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE TIME PERIOD AROUND GROUND HOG DAY...THAT EVENTUALLY WAS ONLY A MERE "SHADOW" OF WHAT SOME WERE SUGGESTING 4-5 DAYS IN ADVANCE. WITH THOSE LESSONS IN MIND...SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH SUCH A CONSENSUS ON THE SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM...THAT IDENTIFYING THE POTENTIAL OVER A VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA IS O.K....BUT FINER DETAILS OF WHAT IMPACT IF ANY AND WHERE WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE IMPACT GETS NEARER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 considering the number of roof and building collapses we've seen here in CT I think snow, sleet, ZR would really be problematic here. That is when it started getting bad up here. 2/1/08...2/13/08. The all snow events aren't that bad especially if you've had a lot of fluff. Once the IP/ZR/wet SN starts getting into the snowpack on the roof it just becomes concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That is when it started getting bad up here. 2/1/08...2/13/08. The all snow events aren't that bad especially if you've had a lot of fluff. Once the IP/ZR/wet SN starts getting into the snowpack on the roof it just becomes concrete. Did you guys see the SWE maps I put in Ryans snow depth thread, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I found the ALY AFD pretty good this afternoon. BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE EASTERN U.S. SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TIME WINDOW OF LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE TIMES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL NORTHEASTERN U.S. IMPACT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT GETS CLOSER. INTERESTING THAT 2 YEARS AGO A BIG STORM WAS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE TIME PERIOD AROUND GROUND HOG DAY...THAT EVENTUALLY WAS ONLY A MERE "SHADOW" OF WHAT SOME WERE SUGGESTING 4-5 DAYS IN ADVANCE. WITH THOSE LESSONS IN MIND...SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH SUCH A CONSENSUS ON THE SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM...THAT IDENTIFYING THE POTENTIAL OVER A VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA IS O.K....BUT FINER DETAILS OF WHAT IMPACT IF ANY AND WHERE WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE IMPACT GETS NEARER. 09 winter falls to big daddy no comparison. Terrible reference, very weenish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Great map! Still new around here so the airport codes help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Did you guys see the SWE maps I put in Ryans snow depth thread, not good. Yeah. I had over a foot of liquid in my snowpack at one point in 07/08. I shoveled the roof at one point in February though. I think I mentioned in another post earlier that the bottom was about 4-6" of solid ice. What a disaster that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah. I had over a foot of liquid in my snowpack at one point in 07/08. I shoveled the roof at one point in February though. I think I mentioned in another post earlier that the bottom was about 4-6" of solid ice. What a disaster that was. Did you end up with any damage, your house is beautiful from the pics you have posted over the years. I remember that whole year very well, Congrats Dendrite year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 09 winter falls to big daddy no comparison. Terrible reference, very weenish Did that storm miss ots? I am trying to remember it but cant. I dont remember winter being too exciting in 08-09 though. A few decent storms for the valley best one was in Dec and that was not anything epic just a good dump of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is naturally colder than the OP...gets the 0C 850 line to near NYC at its peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Great map! Still new around here so the airport codes help a lot. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=ne&time=current&field=stnsYou can choose individual states on the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 box discussion intersting as they seem to not be surprised if the entire thing slides out underneath us due to the monster arctic hp. if that happens i guess it will be a field day in the mid atlantic. box also seems to think most of the area could get an inch of snow tomorrow..that would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is naturally colder than the OP...gets the 0C 850 line to near NYC at its peak. It ticked north a bit, but we'll see if that is real come 00z or another funky off-hour blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah. I had over a foot of liquid in my snowpack at one point in 07/08. I shoveled the roof at one point in February though. I think I mentioned in another post earlier that the bottom was about 4-6" of solid ice. What a disaster that was. I went up on my roof in 96 with the deep snow pack to clear the snow from my skylights and from the edges, it was my first winter in the house and I wasnt sure if they would leak with the ice build up. I had thick ice under the snow also and needless to say I slipped off the roof. I landed in the deep snow pack that was deeper from the snow I cleared off the eaves and didnt get hurt. I lay in the snow laughing my azz off. Got a snow rake and dont go up there any more, skylights dont leak, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 box discussion intersting as they seem to not be surprised if the entire thing slides out underneath us due to the monster arctic hp. if that happens i guess it will be a field day in the mid atlantic. box also seems to think most of the area could get an inch of snow tomorrow..that would be cool I saw that, too. I think it's not entirely different from what ALY was suggesting in their AFD (though Steve might know better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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