MainePhotog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Scott, I am quite content with what we have here really for snowpack, IF we had no snow then i would be crowing, We have a decent snowpack and we are retaining it, Trails have been great here for riding, If we get more thats all the better, If not, As long as it stays cold we should be all set.... ++ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Another -30C 850 invasion of air into the northern plains/lakes by the end of the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The difference though is that last year the confluence was caused by a monster ridge where the PV is on that run...still confluence but in different ways. Quebec is the new Siberia this time while they were torching last year. Its true its totally differnt up there this year as no cold was to be found, But the end result could be the same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 E-Gads! AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it's pretty far north though. And i certainly would not mine being in the battleground........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm glad to see a SWFE possible even if we taint at some point. It seems like over running events are often the best chance to see the serious SN+ here in the NW corner. I recall in Dec 2007 we had one that was dropping 2-3"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We havent seen a canadian anomaly map in awhile Also, id like to point out, its easy to see when dryslot is posting just look for the ............................ Thank you young man, Now get back to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Another -30C 850 invasion of air into the northern plains/lakes by the end of the Euro run. So much for a thaw........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 2 possibilities on this Euro run beyond 168 hours: either a bible bomb or a pattern flipping warm onslaught. at 192 hours out that is one galactic sized S/W careening down the Canadian Rockies. btw - that is my new favorite weenie term. Ha, ha Bible Bomb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 E-Gads! AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. Some of the more affluent people on the board should start their own airline. Call it Weenie Air, but have trans-continental flights to Asia so they can sample the atmosphere over the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 E-Gads! AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 All true, until one gets to "NE NNE". CAR is 22" below avg for this point in the season, has only 7" on the ground, and is still +5F for Jan despite the recent cold wx. Vim Toot's description of conditions in potatoland, on the NNE thread, is classic. Wasted it there. Not much readership for that snow-beggared part of the world this year these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Some of the more affluent people on the board should start their own airline. Call it Weenie Air, but have trans-continental flights to Asia so they can sample the atmosphere over the Pacific. With a shaped dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 With a shaped dropsonde. LOL, yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think Scott's onto something with the normal Euro and what'll be the normal NAM bias in the SW. The pattern this year is so repetitive - as bad as it was good for the M A last year...can probably lock up 6-12+ already...no matter what happens it'll probably work out...front end dump, two part system, three parts system, inverted trough, who knows doesnt seem to matter. -- FWIW here's the recent 120 hour. Not bad but it was north. Inside of 120 it didn't bounch all that much aside of 72 hours where it flunked out for some reason. Just informational...but I lean south if we were gambling. Careful though. The Euro was definitely a bit too far NW, but it was also a little too fast, so that will add a latitudinal error when you look at verification, that's not representative of the track error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think this pattern has 6-12"/6hr storms written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not sure if it was posted, but Crazy Uncle was a bit less amped than the Euro...probably a good snow hit for SNE and CNE taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not sure if it was posted, but Crazy Uncle was a bit less amped than the Euro...probably a good snow hit for SNE and CNE taken verbatim. Either way.. I really don't think we can discount these two trends with this storm... 1. This storm will be NW of the model consensus at. 36-72 hours out Until I see a break in that I think we have to take those into consideration with this storm 2. This storm will be stronger than the models depict it at 36-72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 And as a result the Mid Atlantic winter last year is our winter this year, The difference though is that last year the confluence was caused by a monster ridge where the PV is on that run...still confluence but in different ways. Quebec is the new Siberia this time while they were torching last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ggem is a ctblizz special...starts snowing tuesday afternoon and doesn't really end until thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Either way.. I really don't think we can discount these two trends with this storm... 1. This storm will be NW of the model consensus at. 36-72 hours out Until I see a break in that I think we have to take those into consideration with this storm 2. This storm will be stronger than the models depict it at 36-72 hours out Looks like brutal subsidence over MHT no matter the scenario right now. Looks good for 6-12" CON north and 6-12" ASH south. Probably flurries in Manchvegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not sure if it was posted, but Crazy Uncle was a bit less amped than the Euro...probably a good snow hit for SNE and CNE taken verbatim. I always thought, at least where I live, that all of Maine is in NNE. Where actually could one say CNE begins and stops? Is Maine divided as CNE and NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like brutal subsidence over MHT no matter the scenario right now. Looks good for 6-12" CON north and 6-12" ASH south. Probably flurries in Manchvegas. yeah...it doesn't look good in that area for the next several weeks. more like no-snowNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The next 4 days will be rather difficult as we watch how this develops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ggem is a ctblizz special...starts snowing tuesday afternoon and doesn't really end until thursday morning. In his book that's 'continuous light snowfall into saturday' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 In his book that's 'continuous light snowfall into saturday' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 In his book that's 'continuous light snowfall into saturday' 12-18" with lollies to 24"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12-18" with lollies to 24"? as he said earlier, hard hat warning for driveway snowbank collapse. I cant help but think of him and his poor family pulling out of the driveway and losing Kevin into the depths of tolland forever. just remind him not to hit the horn or collapse will be imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I always thought, at least where I live, that all of Maine is in NNE. Where actually could one say CNE begins and stops? Is Maine divided as CNE and NNE? Northern Maine= north of a line connecting Rangeley to Greenville to Millinocket to Houlton. South of that line is central NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like brutal subsidence over MHT no matter the scenario right now. Looks good for 6-12" CON north and 6-12" ASH south. Probably flurries in Manchvegas. no snow for you snownh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.