dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It would probably be snowier than Vday on the front end. This will likely have a nice overrunning precip shield with it. Even if we taint, I'd expect decent snow before it happens. I'm not 100% convinced though we taint at all in this. Its all going to depend on the energy out west and its battle with the obscenely cold arctic air mass that will be in place prior to this. That PV up on Canada means business. There's an awful lot of confluence in S Quebec and NNE that this system has to overcome. And that is the problem for up here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think we're good. Remember the euro tainted us with this week's storm..and look what happened. trending colder is the way to lean 100% Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS and Euro are very different at D6 wrt temps over the GL and northeast. Wonder of the euro is burying the trough too far into the southwest US. Exactly what I came in here to post. Seems like its burying it far and holding too much energy back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think we're good. Remember the euro tainted us with this week's storm..and look what happened. trending colder is the way to lean I think Scott's onto something with the normal Euro and what'll be the normal NAM bias in the SW. The pattern this year is so repetitive - as bad as it was good for the M A last year...can probably lock up 6-12+ already...no matter what happens it'll probably work out...front end dump, two part system, three parts system, inverted trough, who knows doesnt seem to matter. -- FWIW here's the recent 120 hour. Not bad but it was north. Inside of 120 it didn't bounch all that much aside of 72 hours where it flunked out for some reason. Just informational...but I lean south if we were gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There must be a little convergence zone setting up here. There's actually a little vertical development to some of the cumulus here at home, and radar looked like a finger of -sn along the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 And that is the problem for up here...... Well this system will be juiced with G.O.M moisture and with a bit of a SE ridge in place, it might be able to overcome the confluence, but its just something to keep in mind as we look at these solutions. Its not uncommon to see models try to bury a system too far into an arctic air mass...a lot of weenies bring it up sometimes to try and rationalize not seeing a lakes cutter, but in this case, it has more validity because of that super arctic PV over Quebec. Its not just a run of the mill cold air mass up there. Take into account the Euro SW energy bias and its slight medium range warm bias, and there's reason to believe a colder solution could verify. But a lot is going to hinge on how phased the system is to our west. We could still see a pretty warm solution if that gets phased and amped up enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There must be a little convergence zone setting up here. There's actually a little vertical development to some of the cumulus here at home, and radar looked like a finger of -sn along the Pike. We have steady light weenie snow here. Probably like 3 mi vis but its coming down steadily with these tiny flakes. It almost looks like upslope snow on an east flow here even though I know it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nne and cne ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 As Organizing low has been saying ..maybe nothing can cut too far west with that PV in it's position near HB. We'll see. i dont believe this run at all but of course i would take Will or Scotts or another mets word over mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well this system will be juiced with G.O.M moisture and with a bit of a SE ridge in place, it might be able to overcome the confluence, but its just something to keep in mind as we look at these solutions. Its not uncommon to see models try to bury a system too far into an arctic air mass...a lot of weenies bring it up sometimes to try and rationalize not seeing a lakes cutter, but in this case, it has more validity because of that super arctic PV over Quebec. Its not just a run of the mill cold air mass up there. Take into account the Euro SW energy bias and its slight medium range bias, and there's reason to believe a colder solution could verify. But a lot is going to hinge on how phased the system is to our west. We could still see a pretty warm solution if that gets phased and amped up enough Great analysis, agree totally. Have a good rest of the day...errands and hopefully returning to an 18z NAM that is twice the fun for Saturday..ie 2-4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The previous SWFE trended warmer aloft than progs. We'll see. I feel hope for up here, but the Doc isn't a slam dunk guarantee lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i dont believe this run at all but of course i would take Will or Scotts or another mets word over mine! Why? because it shows snow for NNE........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think Scott's onto something with the normal Euro and what'll be the normal NAM bias in the SW. The pattern this year is so repetitive - as bad as it was good for the M A last year...can probably lock up 6-12+ already...no matter what happens it'll probably work out...front end dump, two part system, three parts system, inverted trough, who knows doesnt seem to matter. -- FWIW here's the recent 120 hour. Not bad but it was north. Inside of 120 it didn't bounch all that much aside of 72 hours where it flunked out for some reason. Just informational...but I lean south if we were gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There must be a little convergence zone setting up here. There's actually a little vertical development to some of the cumulus here at home, and radar looked like a finger of -sn along the Pike. Looks like a nice SE flow up above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Why? because it shows snow for NNE........... the way it leaves energy behind.....i just get the feeling that its going to need all its got to fight that monstrosity of a PV. it just doesnt sit well with me, that all. you and i are in the same same boat this time around. lets hope for the best, but id lean towards the GFS at this point, given that all the models are leaving energy behind.....but at the same time, the interaction off the west coast is next up, and THEN that energy ejects down the road, so we've got a bit to go and likely the energy probably wont eject like that at all......its going to be very interesting to see how it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We have steady light weenie snow here. Probably like 3 mi vis but its coming down steadily with these tiny flakes. It almost looks like upslope snow on an east flow here even though I know it isn't. Very light snow here too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well this system will be juiced with G.O.M moisture and with a bit of a SE ridge in place, it might be able to overcome the confluence, but its just something to keep in mind as we look at these solutions. Its not uncommon to see models try to bury a system too far into an arctic air mass...a lot of weenies bring it up sometimes to try and rationalize not seeing a lakes cutter, but in this case, it has more validity because of that super arctic PV over Quebec. Its not just a run of the mill cold air mass up there. Take into account the Euro SW energy bias and its slight medium range warm bias, and there's reason to believe a colder solution could verify. But a lot is going to hinge on how phased the system is to our west. We could still see a pretty warm solution if that gets phased and amped up enough Well i can see where we would have 2 camps on this storm, Us up here looking for it to be amped so it tracks further north and you guys down that way looking for something weaker and further south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 CMC is way south and east compared to 0z, GFS is always SE, ensembles the same way. I just can't see this turning into a moderate snow event for all of NNE. Maybe southern VT and NH, but not out in my neck of the woods. I'm expecting to see the EURO trend slight south compared to 0z, which did actually give NNE .3-.7" qpf depending on location (6-12" with temps in the low teens). Whats your take dendrite? Except for yesterdays storm, most models this far out showed a scrapper for NNE. Models trended north and west at last minute and we got several great snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We have steady light weenie snow here. Probably like 3 mi vis but its coming down steadily with these tiny flakes. It almost looks like upslope snow on an east flow here even though I know it isn't. i usually call it nuisance snow, but i might switch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 BTW, WxTap is providing Level II radar data it seems. The resolution of the data has been top notch over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this should be a meat grinder on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this should be a meat grinder on the euro. Heavy, heavy confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 BTW, WxTap is providing Level II radar data it seems. The resolution of the data has been top notch over the last few days. Yeah I noticed they made the switch on the closeup radar right before this past storm. They still had the old one up during the Jan 21 fluff bomb....I was just looking at radar images I saved from the past two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Heavy, heavy confluence. To heavy, Reminds me of last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this should be a meat grinder on the euro. 1993-1994 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 "nice" area of snows moving up off of S/C NJ right now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To heavy, Reminds me of last year.. The difference though is that last year the confluence was caused by a monster ridge where the PV is on that run...still confluence but in different ways. Quebec is the new Siberia this time while they were torching last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To heavy, Reminds me of last year.. it's pretty far north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 2 possibilities on this Euro run beyond 168 hours: either a bible bomb or a pattern flipping warm onslaught. at 192 hours out that is one galactic sized S/W careening down the Canadian Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We havent seen a canadian anomaly map in awhile Also, id like to point out, its easy to see when dryslot is posting just look for the ............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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