Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have nearly 30" of ambient snow pack in Ayer, Massachusetts, as of this morning, and a good bit of it is higher moisture content at this point do to having had a couple of IP and icing/softening followed by harsh refreeze events over recent weeks. Going forward the pattern is fraught with opportunities for additional snows. There is a 1-3" suggestion off a clipper with a vort max diving under LI, as has been discussed for this weekend. Moisture starved, but we have seen in that past that higher ratios and decent dynamics can often squeeze additional snows over the QPF and immeidate synoptic appea. Interesting to see the 00z ECM back completely away from a Lakes cutter. I have seen this model do this in the past with its late middle range - when it pulls the plug, it doesn't go necessarily to the East Coast or vice versa necessarily, but disappears on the entity altogether, only to slowly reconstruct it in a new paradigm upon future runs. The amplitude out west with the ridge is pretty heavily agreed upon by the ensemble mean of the GFS family, and amid the other determinsitic guidance types - the CPC notwithstanding has the PNA spiking in the 4-7D range, albeit subtle. The point being this all actually supports another event cooking up the eastern seaboard in a week. We have entered snow removal problems most like - probably a slam dunk in areas of CT that boasted 15+ from the overnight event. We have narrowed side roads even up here in NW Middlesex County ini Mass. Pulling up to intersections is now and interesting proposition in having to negotiate around huge snow bank obsticles. With limited melt signaled leading into the weekend and next week, we thus continue along a phenomenal stretch of winter weather - perhaps historic before all is said and done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have nearly 30" of ambient snow pack in Ayer, Massachusetts, as of this morning, and a good bit of it is higher moisture content at this point do to having had a couple of IP and icing/softening followed by harsh refreeze events over recent weeks. Going forward the pattern is fraught with opportunities for additional snows. There is a 1-3" suggestion off a clipper with a vort max diving under LI, as has been discussed for this weekend. Moisture starved, but we have seen in that past that higher ratios and decent dynamics can often squeeze additional snows over the QPF and immeidate synoptic appea. Interesting to see the 00z ECM back completely away from a Lakes cutter. I have seen this model do this in the past with its late middle range - when it pulls the plug, it doesn't go necessarily to the East Coast or vice versa necessarily, but disappears on the entity altogether, only to slowly reconstruct it in a new paradigm upon future runs. The amplitude out west with the ridge is pretty heavily agreed upon by the ensemble mean of the GFS family, and amid the other determinsitic guidance types - the CPC notwithstanding has the PNA spiking in the 4-7D range, albeit subtle. The point being this all actually supports another event cooking up the eastern seaboard in a week. We have entered snow removal problems most like - probably a slam dunk in areas of CT that boasted 15+ from the overnight event. We have narrowed side roads even up here in NW Middlesex County ini Mass. Pulling up to intersections is now and interesting proposition in having to negotiate around huge snow bank obsticles. With limited melt signaled leading into the weekend and next week, we thus continue along a phenomenal stretch of winter weather - perhaps historic before all is said and done! EC ensembles also supporting something along the east coast, but pass it very close or on the se coast of sne. The dominant feature that I see going forward is a strong -epo like ridge into AK with the PV pinned over northeastern Hudson Bay. We have a positively tilted trough tucked in the Plains, with heights at times trying to rise above normal over the southeast. It has the appearance of a gradient like pattern with overrunning to miller b potential hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Thanks Tip and CoastalWx for your insight. It's always greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 And actually ... interestingly enough, the pattern beyond next week .... D13ish onward is signaling a pretty major thaw in there at some point. The CPC and CDC are decently clustered on a falling PNA in tandem with a rising NAO. Far from any certainty though - several times since autumn I have seen the NAO progged to go positive, only to have that get muted as the week 2-3 comes into week 1. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Thanks Tip and CoastalWx for your insight. It's always greatly appreciated! Feel free to make this our next lively SNE discussion thread - I didn't mean for this to be one of those theoretically based outlooks, but more at a tap on the shoulder with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 A few inches Saturday? SOME OF THE PAST GUIDANCE INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE SNOW THAN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE WITH THIS EVENT IN FUTURE RUNS. 5th below zero night of the year Sunday? Predicted low of 0. What a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I for one am looking forward to a few moderate events to keep adding inches to the pack w/o being overwhelming for the masses in the populated areas. We only got 4" last night and although more would have been fun, it was all very manageable and didn't take me half a day to clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like the classic SW US energy dumping ground, which opens up a plethora of possibilities middle of next week. In addition, there are signs that as an increasing active Pacific jet impinges on the western ridge, it could trigger anticyclonic wave breaking, then forcing the PV way south into Ontario. Has the potential for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I like where you guys are heading with this. keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There is an impressive storm exactly a week away on the 12Z GFS that looks like it has some potential. Day 7, energy comes across the southwest and looks like it tried to develop a low off NC or so and come north. I hope this time it ends up helping NNE folks a little more! Other than that, cold, with some clippers that freshen things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Next week screams overruning event. Could be prolific too. 12z GFS is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Next week screams overruning event. Could be prolific too. 12z GFS is nice. Since mid-Dec, we've constantly had another storm on the horizon to watch. Non stop threats that actually deliver! Amazing stretch so far. And January was supposed to be the milder month with later Feb and March getting back into a colder and snowier pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I tell you What guys.. I got 6 inches from the last storm and I'm ready to track a monster here d7.. can you imagine if the boxing day storm didn't screw most of sne??? One thing is for certain.. don't muck the seasonal NW trend This winter screams late monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 EC ensembles also supporting something along the east coast, but pass it very close or on the se coast of sne. Sorry but a lot of NNE'ers wouldn't complain if something tracked through SE'ern New England, haha. No hard feelings, but in order for us to get a large synoptic storm that's pretty much what needs to happen. Plus, some ice in SNE would mean that snowpack would last till May. I keep thinking it is bound to happen at some point if these things keep tracking in this general vicinity. I'm getting sick of being stuck between 160-170" up here at the ski area, haha. Given that our snowfall average is around 2" per day all winter long, this 1" per day stuff means we are losing ground. If it doesn't snow up here soon, my 80-85" on the season at my house will be passed by the CT shoreline if it hasn't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Thanks for the thoughts on the upcoming potentials. Sorry but a lot of NNE'ers wouldn't complain if something tracked through SE'ern New England, haha. No hard feelings, but in order for us to get a large synoptic storm that's pretty much what needs to happen. Heh, you beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GGEM does a major phase job and rides the SLP up into the GL. Lot's of moving pieces with this upcoming potential. Another wait till Saturday/Sunday deal to get a better feel. Saturday clipper does not look too bad on the GGEM either. s/w shoots under SNE so could bring some goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Next week screams overruning event. Could be prolific too. 12z GFS is nice. Looks OTS for NNE at this distance, though obviously that could change. (At day 5, this last one had 15-20" for MBY.) Probably it will take an HV torch/deluge to break the "not quite far enough NW" pattern. At least the crumbs off the edges have given most of NNE not named "Aroostook" near normal snow and snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GGEM does a major phase job and rides the SLP up into the GL. Lot's of moving pieces with this upcoming potential. Another wait till Saturday/Sunday deal to get a better feel. Saturday clipper does not look too bad on the GGEM either. s/w shoots under SNE so could bring some goods. I do like the clipper output ... could be a couple inches here. Hoping Euro doesn't go back to its nasty cutter ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks OTS for NNE at this distance, though obviously that could change. (At day 5, this last one had 15-20" for MBY.) Probably it will take an HV torch/deluge to break the "not quite far enough NW" pattern. At least the crumbs off the edges have given most of NNE not named "Aroostook" near normal snow and snowpack. On the GFS, yes. The GGEM would be a good hit before a changeover and even than, verbatim, I am sure N ME is pretty cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I do like the clipper output ... could be a couple inches here. Hoping Euro doesn't go back to its nasty cutter ways. Looks good up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If John Madden was a meteorologist ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If John Madden was a meteorologist ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Windexy today/ tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If John Madden was a meteorologist ... ...BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro is meh on the clipper, But the trust factor on the euro is low right now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If John Madden was a meteorologist ... literally laughed out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 euro has a nice snow event middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 2-4 for the GTG looking likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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