Zir0b Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like the DGEX has a two-wave scenario, usually those don't work out and we get a more consolidated 1 part storm, or a weak first wave and a much stronger second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like the DGEX has a two-wave scenario, usually those don't work out and we get a more consolidated 1 part storm, or a weak first wave and a much stronger second wave. Yesterday worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yesterday worked out DGEX has an event at 114 hours and then another one at 138-144, there is a huge lull in between the events unlike yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Its not really two wave scenario There is no short wave on the DGEX except what is down off the se coast and the gfs has really no precip with that wave. What it is WAA and then the next sw ejects and doesnt get as sheered out as the first. Euro has no first wave either, just the waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I referenced Jan 96 this afternoon on page 5 or 6 in regards to HP and LP positions. It's rather glaring and I hate referencing 96! But it's verY similar with a neutral NAO no less I see your point, but next week will not be like the Jan 1996 H500 map with a cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 can we please hold off on the 96 and presidents storm analogs. This storm is 5 plus days away. For all we know this could cut to detroit giving us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I see your point, but next week will not be like the Jan 1996 H500 map with a cutoff low. Agreed H5 clearly is on another level! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 can we please hold off on the 96 and presidents storm analogs. This storm is 5 plus days away. For all we know this could cut to detroit giving us rain. Of course, referencing historic events is merely grasping and we all know that, but there is a reason 96 was second on the Cips output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Of course, referencing historic events is merely grasping and we all know that, but there is a reason 96 was second on the Cips output yea i see, if this was 2 days before the events and its spitting that out i can see. But not 5-6 days out. Just look at the past storm we all though this was going to be rain 3-4 days out and look how much it changed.... Heck look at how much it changed under 24 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea i see, if this was 2 days before the events and its spitting that out i can see. But not 5-6 days out. Just look at the past storm we all though this was going to be rain 3-4 days out and look how much it changed.... Heck look at how much it changed under 24 hrs lol Absolutely, hey one day the models will hit one out of the park outside of 2 days, maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I got wrapped up in 96 only because the #9 analog from the gfs showed a storm six days prior to that blizzard. I still think its possible to get a miller a out of this although I agree it has a low probability atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Would any mets like to chime in with their two cents regarding a possible 96 esque type system? High pressure looks to be in great position. Seems like the deep troughing is the piece of the puzzle missing at the moment but could that change? If it's similar to 96 then I have to get on my roof. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I got wrapped up in 96 only because the #9 analog from the gfs showed a storm six days prior to that blizzard. I still think its possible to get a miller a out of this although I agree it has a low probability atm http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new NorEaster85, check was #2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was refering to the 1/1/96 event being the #9 analog on the page that was posted before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Being that right now the energy being modeled to produce the slp will be coming out of the split southern branch of the PJ I would say this is more likey to be Miller A than B, although it may be a hybrid. One thing is for sure, the GOM will once again be open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Upton riding the GEFS. Not surprising given their handling of the complicated pattern the last month. They also mention the first posibility of a tuesday event. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GEFS AND ECMWF USED WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TODAY`S LONG TERM FORECAST. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE THAT DRIVES THE POTENTIAL MID WEEK STORM THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS AVAILABLE IN AWIPS (WHICH INCLUDES THE OPERATIONAL RUN). GEFS MEMBERS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40 N / 70 W BENCHMARK AROUND 06 Z THURSDAY (WEDNESDAY NGT). OBVIOUSLY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL TRACK THIS FAR OUT AND HOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN. FOR NOW...ONLY MENTIONING SNOW (PERSISTENCE). BEFORE WE GET TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE ECMWF SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON TUE AND LEADING UP TO THE POTENTIAL EVENT. WILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS DRY...HPC AS WELL AS RELATIVE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF THE PCPN FIELDS IN THE GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THE 30 POP FOR TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOCUS IS PROBABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THIS SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Wow, the Euro and GFS have so much potential with that storm, its boatloaded with moisture, arctic air, and a nice set-up, this could lead to another fascinating evolution and another impacting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 4 Panel from the 18z gfs, speaking of moisture feed, check out the 700mb map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Analogs again want to show a more north track like they did with this past event.... http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new #2 analog jan 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What is an overrunning event? Overrunning is exactly what it sounds like, a storm pushing warm air ahead of itself (warm air advection or WAA) that rides up and over (overrunning) an entrenched colder air mass. The first batch of snow yesterday was overrunning, and the President's Day II storm in '03 was a perfect example of what overrunning can do for a storm. Want to see something even better....take a look at this link http://www.njfreeway...urfaceMaps.html Maybe its just me, but those surface maps look very similar to what some models are showing with the two big high pressures. When you take a look aloft though, so much different than our current situation. If we could only get the energy to phase over the gulf we might be in huge businss. What a killer storm that was. The radar actually wasn't that impressive, it was mostly just persistant banding over the same areas. Must have been some crazy blocking. Just goes to show you what can happen when a miller A tries to run into a massive bananna. '96 was a flawlessly perfect banana high configuration and a good old fashioned Miller A running right into it. Storms may have similar snowfall numbers, but we speak with extreme reverence around here about one of the only two NESIS 5 storms in recorded history. Nothing is a '96 analog. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Enough with the 96 talk already, every big storm on the horizon people seem to do this. It gets old. Just works the weenies up even more then they already need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Overrunning is exactly what it sounds like, a storm pushing warm air ahead of itself (warm air advection or WAA) that rides up and over (overrunning) an entrenched colder air mass. The first batch of snow yesterday was overrunning, and the President's Day II storm in '03 was a perfect example of what overrunning can do for a storm. '96 was a flawlessly perfect banana high configuration and a good old fashioned Miller A running right into it. Storms may have similar snowfall numbers, but we speak with extreme reverence around here about one of the only two NESIS 5 storms in recorded history. Nothing is a '96 analog. Nothing. This is the best overrunning example I know of....5-8 inches of snow fell from that little subtle shortwave at 500mb thanks to that 1040+ high. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1990/us1228.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is the best overrunning example I know of....5-8 inches of snow fell from that little subtle shortwave at 500mb thanks to that 1040+ high. http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us1228.php SWFE for FTL. Look at the SE ridge. Yuck! That so could have been this winter and stil can be. Looks at the -PNA too. Double yuck. Really PDII is the best over running example I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is the best overrunning example I know of....5-8 inches of snow fell from that little subtle shortwave at 500mb thanks to that 1040+ high. http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us1228.php Remember that one well. There was no "storm". A surprisingly intense moderate snowfall that far exceeded expectations in my then backyard of Reading, PA. Came mostly at night if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Overrunning is exactly what it sounds like, a storm pushing warm air ahead of itself (warm air advection or WAA) that rides up and over (overrunning) an entrenched colder air mass. The first batch of snow yesterday was overrunning, and the President's Day II storm in '03 was a perfect example of what overrunning can do for a storm. '96 was a flawlessly perfect banana high configuration and a good old fashioned Miller A running right into it. Storms may have similar snowfall numbers, but we speak with extreme reverence around here about one of the only two NESIS 5 storms in recorded history. Nothing is a '96 analog. Nothing. I agree with this; but one has to argue that if the February 5-6, 2010 storm came up the coast, it would be right up there with the blizzard of '96 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Check out the HP the srefs are showing at 87 hours.. 1052 just north of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Check out the HP the srefs are showing at 87 hours.. 1052 just north of the border Ear popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ouch, just looking at that hurt my ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not sure what to say about what I see setting up for the system this coming week......I know what some are thinking...and i'm thinking the same thing. Too good to be true ? You would think...but nope. It really is setting up to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not sure what to say about what I see setting up for the system this coming week......I know what some are thinking...and i'm thinking the same thing. Too good to be true ? You would think...but nope. It really is setting up to be a monster. We just had a monster, can anyone fanthom a 12-18 inch "monster in 7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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