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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Its not really two wave scenario There is no short wave on the DGEX except what is down off the se coast and the gfs has really no precip with that wave. What it is WAA and then the next sw ejects and doesnt get as sheered out as the first. Euro has no first wave either, just the waa.

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I referenced Jan 96 this afternoon on page 5 or 6 in regards to HP and LP positions. It's rather glaring and I hate referencing 96! But it's verY similar with a neutral NAO no less

I see your point, but next week will not be like the Jan 1996 H500 map with a cutoff low.

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can we please hold off on the 96 and presidents storm analogs. This storm is 5 plus days away. For all we know this could cut to detroit giving us rain.

Of course, referencing historic events is merely grasping and we all know that, but there is a reason 96 was second on the Cips output

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Of course, referencing historic events is merely grasping and we all know that, but there is a reason 96 was second on the Cips output

yea i see, if this was 2 days before the events and its spitting that out i can see. But not 5-6 days out. Just look at the past storm we all though this was going to be rain 3-4 days out and look how much it changed.... Heck look at how much it changed under 24 hrs lol

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yea i see, if this was 2 days before the events and its spitting that out i can see. But not 5-6 days out. Just look at the past storm we all though this was going to be rain 3-4 days out and look how much it changed.... Heck look at how much it changed under 24 hrs lol

Absolutely, hey one day the models will hit one out of the park outside of 2 days, maybe! ;)

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Would any mets like to chime in with their two cents regarding a possible 96 esque type system? High pressure looks to be in great position. Seems like the deep troughing is the piece of the puzzle missing at the moment but could that change?

If it's similar to 96 then I have to get on my roof. Lol

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Being that right now the energy being modeled to produce the slp will be coming out of the split southern branch of the PJ I would say this is more likey to be Miller A than B, although it may be a hybrid. One thing is for sure, the GOM will once again be open for business.

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Upton riding the GEFS. Not surprising given their handling of the complicated pattern the last month. They also mention the first posibility of a tuesday event.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY

WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM

AFFECTING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

GEFS AND ECMWF USED WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TODAY`S LONG TERM

FORECAST.

ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE

THAT DRIVES THE POTENTIAL MID WEEK STORM THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS

AVAILABLE IN AWIPS (WHICH INCLUDES THE OPERATIONAL RUN). GEFS

MEMBERS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40 N / 70

W BENCHMARK AROUND 06 Z THURSDAY (WEDNESDAY NGT). OBVIOUSLY...LOTS

OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL TRACK THIS FAR OUT AND HOW

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN. FOR

NOW...ONLY MENTIONING SNOW (PERSISTENCE).

BEFORE WE GET TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN

BRANCH SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE ECMWF SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW

ON TUE AND LEADING UP TO THE POTENTIAL EVENT. WILE THE OPERATIONAL

GFS IS DRY...HPC AS WELL AS RELATIVE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF THE PCPN

FIELDS IN THE GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THE 30 POP FOR TUESDAY...TUESDAY

NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOCUS IS PROBABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IN

ANY CASE...THIS SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

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What is an overrunning event?

Overrunning is exactly what it sounds like, a storm pushing warm air ahead of itself (warm air advection or WAA) that rides up and over (overrunning) an entrenched colder air mass. The first batch of snow yesterday was overrunning, and the President's Day II storm in '03 was a perfect example of what overrunning can do for a storm.

Want to see something even better....take a look at this link http://www.njfreeway...urfaceMaps.html Maybe its just me, but those surface maps look very similar to what some models are showing with the two big high pressures. When you take a look aloft though, so much different than our current situation. If we could only get the energy to phase over the gulf we might be in huge businss. What a killer storm that was. The radar actually wasn't that impressive, it was mostly just persistant banding over the same areas. Must have been some crazy blocking. Just goes to show you what can happen when a miller A tries to run into a massive bananna.

CurrSur-0900Z-07Jan96.jpg

CurrSur-1300Z-07Jan96.jpg

CurrSur-1900Z-07Jan96.jpg

CurrSur-2200Z-07Jan96.jpg

'96 was a flawlessly perfect banana high configuration and a good old fashioned Miller A running right into it. Storms may have similar snowfall numbers, but we speak with extreme reverence around here about one of the only two NESIS 5 storms in recorded history. Nothing is a '96 analog. Nothing.

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Overrunning is exactly what it sounds like, a storm pushing warm air ahead of itself (warm air advection or WAA) that rides up and over (overrunning) an entrenched colder air mass. The first batch of snow yesterday was overrunning, and the President's Day II storm in '03 was a perfect example of what overrunning can do for a storm.

'96 was a flawlessly perfect banana high configuration and a good old fashioned Miller A running right into it. Storms may have similar snowfall numbers, but we speak with extreme reverence around here about one of the only two NESIS 5 storms in recorded history. Nothing is a '96 analog. Nothing.

This is the best overrunning example I know of....5-8 inches of snow fell from that little subtle shortwave at 500mb thanks to that 1040+ high.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1990/us1228.php

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This is the best overrunning example I know of....5-8 inches of snow fell from that little subtle shortwave at 500mb thanks to that 1040+ high.

http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us1228.php

SWFE for FTL. Look at the SE ridge. Yuck! That so could have been this winter and stil can be. Looks at the -PNA too. Double yuck. Really PDII is the best over running example I can remember.

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This is the best overrunning example I know of....5-8 inches of snow fell from that little subtle shortwave at 500mb thanks to that 1040+ high.

http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us1228.php

Remember that one well. There was no "storm". A surprisingly intense moderate snowfall that far exceeded expectations in my then backyard of Reading, PA. Came mostly at night if I recall.

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Overrunning is exactly what it sounds like, a storm pushing warm air ahead of itself (warm air advection or WAA) that rides up and over (overrunning) an entrenched colder air mass. The first batch of snow yesterday was overrunning, and the President's Day II storm in '03 was a perfect example of what overrunning can do for a storm.

'96 was a flawlessly perfect banana high configuration and a good old fashioned Miller A running right into it. Storms may have similar snowfall numbers, but we speak with extreme reverence around here about one of the only two NESIS 5 storms in recorded history. Nothing is a '96 analog. Nothing.

I agree with this; but one has to argue that if the February 5-6, 2010 storm came up the coast, it would be right up there with the blizzard of '96 for sure.

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Not sure what to say about what I see setting up for the system this coming week......I know what some are thinking...and i'm thinking the same thing. Too good to be true ? You would think...but nope. It really is setting up to be a monster.

We just had a monster, can anyone fanthom a 12-18 inch "monster in 7 days?

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