RobbTC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Next Wed is Groundhog Day.... A snowstorm would be very fitting for a day when everyone is hoping for Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 HP drops too far south on this run, thus surpressing the storm SE. Careful with that statement, HP doesn't supress, the flow does. Beautiful HP for February 14, 2007, no supression there. The flow over canada from the PV in eastern canada and the PNA ridge out west could lead to supression if the PV is too strong, however, right now given the GFS bias, I would say the NYC metro is in a very nice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Next Wed is Groundhog Day.... A snowstorm would be very fitting for a day when everyone is hoping for Spring! Everyone except AmericanWX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Better yet, where's the NOGAPS guy? What did that model show BTW.... Unfortunately , the 18 Z Nogaps has not updated and the 12 Z run never finished on the Nogaps site.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Unfortunately , the 18 Z Nogaps has not updated and the 12 Z run never finished on the Nogaps site.... you have all the weenies flocking to it now, it crashed just like the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 does it looks like a NJ event with the current GFS? I was talking about PA, not sure why you're asking about NJ. And anyway, right now only southern PA and NJ see anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What is an overrunning event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If the dgex had its way, next week would snow more than it didn't. Btw, this was the only long range model not to show a 4 inch rain event last week, so, keep that in the back of your head. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The + PNA is relentless on the gfs... Its gonna steer the whole pattern like it has and will continue to do, major overunning event is up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I was talking about PA, not sure why you're asking about NJ. And anyway, right now only southern PA and NJ see anything decent. If anyone remembers, this is exactly what the maps looked like 5-7 days before PDII in February 2003. Slowly but surely the 1 inch line came north. Same type of pattern too. Not endorsing a PDII type storm at this moment, but this setup could really produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Is this setup absolutely perfect or what? Still can't believe this is only 114 hours away. I always worry about PV modeling to ever say it's a perfect setup. I'll worry about that until it's snowing outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If anyone remembers, this is exactly what the maps looked like 5-7 days before PDII in February 2003. Slowly but surely the 1 inch line came north. Same type of pattern too. Not endorsing a PDII type storm at this moment, but this setup could really produce. Yup, initially it didn't look like we were going to get anything from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 18z GFS track brings back bad memories...... for me at least. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/events/2010/Feb5-6_winterstorm/summary_Feb5-6.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 you have all the weenies flocking to it now, it crashed just like the MM5. All I can tell you is that on 12 Z it was looking like this after 144 18 Z is running now just started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 18z GFS track brings back bad memories...... for me at least. dont worry, completely different pattern. The NAO will actually be positive for this event and there is not a STJ, the vort comes out of the split flow out west. So you are safe. Speaking of blocking, a nice scandanavian block is actually present at around 144 hours, that can be quite nice with a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 you have all the weenies flocking to it now, it crashed just like the MM5. THe NCEP site also crashed last night but that was because of the storm Someone needs to post the NOGAPS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What is an overrunning event? a not so technical def. around here, in winter, when warm air mass run over top cold air at the surface and creates cloud cover. every once and a while, some heavy snow develops. this may help a little ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warm_front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 THe NCEP site also crashed last night but that was because of the storm Someone needs to post the NOGAPS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Analogs again want to show a more north track like they did with this past event.... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Notice #9, nailed the interior days before we got the infamous "Blizzard of 96" I'll take a repeat of that combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Notice #9, nailed the interior days before we got the infamous "Blizzard of 96" I'll take a repeat of that combo I saw that too. Kinda surprised PDII didn't make the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Want to see something even better....take a look at this link http://www.njfreeway...urfaceMaps.html Maybe its just me, but those surface maps look very similar to what some models are showing with the two big high pressures. When you take a look aloft though, so much different than our current situation. If we could only get the energy to phase over the gulf we might be in huge businss. What a killer storm that was. The radar actually wasn't that impressive, it was mostly just persistant banding over the same areas. Must have been some crazy blocking. Just goes to show you what can happen when a miller A tries to run into a massive bananna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 HP drops too far south on this run, thus surpressing the storm SE. Yes but GFS has a tendency to shove HP a bit too far South if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Want to see something even better....take a look at this link http://www.njfreeway...urfaceMaps.html Maybe its just me, but those surface maps look very similar to what some models are showing with the two big high pressures. When you take a look aloft though, so much different than our current situation. If we could only get the energy to phase over the gulf we might be in huge businss. What a killer storm that was. The radar actually wasn't that impressive, it was mostly just persistant banding over the same areas. Must have been some crazy blocking. Just goes to show you what can happen when a miller A tries to run into a massive bananna. I referenced Jan 96 this afternoon on page 5 or 6 in regards to HP and LP positions. It's rather glaring and I hate referencing 96! But it's verY similar with a neutral NAO no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes but GFS has a tendency to shove HP a bit too far South if I'm not mistaken Most models in the medium to long range drop them too southerly with not enough easterly push and they are usually too slow with them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GEFS 18Z. Very nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Would any mets like to chime in with their two cents regarding a possible 96 esque type system? High pressure looks to be in great position. Seems like the deep troughing is the piece of the puzzle missing at the moment but could that change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think we are exactly where we want to be at this point. The GFS was SE and disorganized 5 days out for this most recent storm (which has always been it's bias). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Would any mets like to chime in with their two cents regarding a possible 96 esque type system? High pressure looks to be in great position. Seems like the deep troughing is the piece of the puzzle missing at the moment but could that change? I understand what you are saying about the HP, but the 500mb pattern from 96 compared to what is progged doesnlt look much alike whatsoever... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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