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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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From Mt. Holly

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ANOTHER PROBABLE WINTER EVENT IS IN THE OFFING IN THE LONG TERM

CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRIOR TO IT OCCURRING AN ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE

NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW

NORMAL AND WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. THERE ARE MODELING

DIFFERENCES AS TO TIMING AND ALSO FASTER PHASING AND THIS FORECAST

PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A GFS AND ECMWF COMPROMISE. WE HAVE FOUND THAT

THE OVERPHASED MIDWESTERN CUTTER SOLUTIONS OFFERED TODAY BY THE CAN

GGEM AND UKMET HAVE HAD NOT MUCH SUCCESS THIS WINTER. THE ECMWF HAS

TRENDED AWAY FROM THAT POSSIBILITY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OF NOTE

ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SUGGESTING SOME SOLUTIONS ARE AT LEAST TRYING

TO TAKE A LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE MIXED

PRECIPITATION DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.

SO WHILE POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD, WE

BELIEVE ITS MORE TO DO WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THAN THE

SURFACE LOWS EXITING TOO FAR STAGE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF TODAY THE FORECAST CONSENSUS IS FOR A POSITIVE TILT TROF WITH

THE ARCTIC HIGH SUPPLYING FRESH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A

SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ON

TUESDAY, THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH LOW

NUMBER ONE. THE ARCTIC AIR APPEARS TOO FRESH PLUS THE MODEL TRENDING

IS AWAY FROM THE WARMER SOLUTION. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH LOW NUMBER TWO WE DID INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF MIXED

PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH

THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SOME FREEZING RAIN, BUT THAT PTYPE

WAS NOT MENTIONED AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW SKILLS

AT FORECASTING THERMAL FIELDS SIX DAYS IN ADVANCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL AVERAGE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS THERE

APPEARS NO END TO THE COLD POSITIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN.

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It's the sound being made by every snow weenie northwest of I81 in Pennsylvania this winter.

Just kidding ... sorry folks .... couldn't resist.

Warm Air Advection

I really was just trying for a laugh and wasn't trying to issue a low blow/incite anger. I was one of the "screwed" zone folks until yesterday's storm.

Let's hope this next potential for 2/1 to 2/4 pans out for a much larger area.

Yup, and now that you got yours, you'll jump on the C PA bashing bandwagon too. Even if you were joking, it just isn't funny to those who are still waiting for their major event while watching everyone else get 4, 5, and even 6 of them over the past year and a half. I wasn't too happy with Earthlight's snide sub-title in one of the model threads leading up to this past storm, either.

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If the confluence is modeled correctly on the GFS OP this is a terrific setup for the Middle Atlantic as far as overrunning snows go.

It really looks like the Presidents Day snowstorm of 2003 or a variant of it.

John, we can't lose this winter... :snowman:

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The PV will not let this cut....if the GFS and Euro are modeling it correctly.

On those models, its positioned over the Eastern Hudson Bay/Quebec, in previous GLC's it was over the other side of the bay or Western Canada.

No storm is going to charge head on into a healthy, PV, like this one. Plus, the vortex is not weakening or pulling out during the storm, its just a matter of how far it exerts its influence.

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