ru89 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 oh boy... our friends north of ABE will love to see this again Don't worry, we've come to accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hell of a gradient setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From Mt. Holly LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER PROBABLE WINTER EVENT IS IN THE OFFING IN THE LONG TERM CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO IT OCCURRING AN ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. THERE ARE MODELING DIFFERENCES AS TO TIMING AND ALSO FASTER PHASING AND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A GFS AND ECMWF COMPROMISE. WE HAVE FOUND THAT THE OVERPHASED MIDWESTERN CUTTER SOLUTIONS OFFERED TODAY BY THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET HAVE HAD NOT MUCH SUCCESS THIS WINTER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THAT POSSIBILITY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OF NOTE ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SUGGESTING SOME SOLUTIONS ARE AT LEAST TRYING TO TAKE A LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION DEEPER INTO OUR CWA. SO WHILE POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD, WE BELIEVE ITS MORE TO DO WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THAN THE SURFACE LOWS EXITING TOO FAR STAGE SOUTHEAST. AS OF TODAY THE FORECAST CONSENSUS IS FOR A POSITIVE TILT TROF WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SUPPLYING FRESH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY, THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH LOW NUMBER ONE. THE ARCTIC AIR APPEARS TOO FRESH PLUS THE MODEL TRENDING IS AWAY FROM THE WARMER SOLUTION. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW NUMBER TWO WE DID INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SOME FREEZING RAIN, BUT THAT PTYPE WAS NOT MENTIONED AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW SKILLS AT FORECASTING THERMAL FIELDS SIX DAYS IN ADVANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL AVERAGE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS THERE APPEARS NO END TO THE COLD POSITIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hell of a gradient setting up. wow. as long as the 0C line is just to the south, we should be good for some instability! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's the sound being made by every snow weenie northwest of I81 in Pennsylvania this winter. Just kidding ... sorry folks .... couldn't resist. Warm Air Advection I really was just trying for a laugh and wasn't trying to issue a low blow/incite anger. I was one of the "screwed" zone folks until yesterday's storm. Let's hope this next potential for 2/1 to 2/4 pans out for a much larger area. Yup, and now that you got yours, you'll jump on the C PA bashing bandwagon too. Even if you were joking, it just isn't funny to those who are still waiting for their major event while watching everyone else get 4, 5, and even 6 of them over the past year and a half. I wasn't too happy with Earthlight's snide sub-title in one of the model threads leading up to this past storm, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 138 &144 &150 Dgex. Appears to be in the cooler GFS/ECM camp and not the wrapped up UKMET/GGEM Camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The means of the ECM @ 144 actually are alot further to the north then what the Operational has it and is alot closer to the 12 Z Nogaps position. ECM means has it in E TN.... while the NOGAPS @ 12 Z has is in W North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LMAO, back to back blockbuster winters. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 114 hour GFS is absolutely screaming at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 114 hour GFS is absolutely screaming at us link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Is this setup absolutely perfect or what? Still can't believe this is only 114 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The VV RH maps on the 18z gfs are telling Constant plume of moisture across the north and a sw ejecting at 123 and unable to go anywhere but ne along the gradient because of the PNA ridge, PV over eastern canada, and 1048 high over the dakotas. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 link? 120 is looking really nice. Gaining a lot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Somebody pinch me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Incredible overrunning...surface low is over MS at 135 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This is a joke right? Someone had asked if NYC was going to hit 100" this year and I kinda laughed... I don't know if I should be laughing anymore.. I can't get over this.. It's just unbelievable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If the confluence is modeled correctly on the GFS OP this is a terrific setup for the Middle Atlantic as far as overrunning snows go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 DC snowstorm at 141 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If the confluence is modeled correctly on the GFS OP this is a terrific setup for the Middle Atlantic as far as overrunning snows go. Indeed. It does have that special look for us. I hope the damn confluence holds and is modeled correctly. GFS has been pretty emphatic so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If the confluence is modeled correctly on the GFS OP this is a terrific setup for the Middle Atlantic as far as overrunning snows go. It really looks like the Presidents Day snowstorm of 2003 or a variant of it. John, we can't lose this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Man, this run is beautiful. The PNA ridge and the positioning of the PV are absolutely perfect. The shortwave off the west coast digs south and the gradient pattern to the east sets up a dome of cold air and terrific overrunning. By the way..Mid Atlantic gets a nice hit at 141-147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 gonna be to the south of the nyc metro this run which is right where we want it. Looks like a further south version of the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Indeed. It does have that special look for us. I hope the damn confluence holds and is modeled correctly. GFS has been pretty emphatic so far This pattern is great for a confluent flow to the south of the PV which is located over East/Northeast Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Indeed. It does have that special look for us. I hope the damn confluence holds and is modeled correctly. GFS has been pretty emphatic so far I think y'all get included in the fun from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Where is Eduggs, convective feedback on the GFS at 132 and 135 causing the surface low to elongate and shoot east. Of course, that is weenie talk for " bad run" LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think y'all get included in the fun from here on out. The question is, does the other direction as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Very close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The PV will not let this cut....if the GFS and Euro are modeling it correctly. On those models, its positioned over the Eastern Hudson Bay/Quebec, in previous GLC's it was over the other side of the bay or Western Canada. No storm is going to charge head on into a healthy, PV, like this one. Plus, the vortex is not weakening or pulling out during the storm, its just a matter of how far it exerts its influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Where is Eduggs, convective feedback on the GFS at 132 and 135 causing the surface low to elongate and shoot east. Of course, that is weenie talk for " bad run" LOL. Better yet, where's the NOGAPS guy? What did that model show BTW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 HP drops too far south on this run, thus surpressing the storm SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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