SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 kinda looks like a slightly more amped up version of Feb 2-4 1996 The setup is somewhat similar though the degree of arctic air in the Plains is about 1/32nd of what it was in 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I thought this was a very interesting post from another blog, not sure if I'm allowed to post the URL so I won't. The great thing about the post is that it was posted on Nov 10, 2010, while most of us were still thinking this would be a unfavorable year. This guy should get big time props in my opinion. Phillywhiteo The Winter of 1995-96 Posted: (November 10, 2010 09:10 am) keeps creeping back into my thoughts. I was watching TWC late last evening and they compared the 1995 Hurricane season to this past season and it was remarkable how similar they were!! Both seasons had 21 named storms with most of them being fish storms(there were 2 U.S. landfalls in 1995). Obviously, they were both very hot summers too(I think 1995 was the 3rd hottest summer on record)!! I'm not sure how strong the La Nina was that year(maybe someone can help with that?), but I know it was a La Nina year. We know weather has a tendency to repeat itself and we try to look for analog years, but this past summer seems very similar to 1995. Now we have to see if we get a late November snowfall(we had a 2 incher in late November that year...I'm not predicting it). If I remember correctly we had our first real snow on December 10th(Western burbs) that year and the snow stayed on the ground until around January 20th(the blizzard of 1996 was in there too). This isn't a prediction and I'm not trying to hype anything, but I did find the similarities very interesting!! Enjoy the gorgeous weather the next few days!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yeah, we were riding the ensembles (both euro and gefs) while some others chose to ride the nogaps And the ECM did not do very well with last nights system at all.... Here at KABE we got 11.6 inches of snow... The ECM did not show this occurring (except in its longer range) The GFS did not show this occurring.... The GFS/ nor its means had a track as far west as the actual track occurred... The ECM did have the further west track solution correct but it was incorrect on the QPF.... However..before the ECM had the track correct..the NOGAPS already had it first.... Keep putting down the model , its all fine and well...but in the end ..the NOGAPS was correct before the rest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 And the ECM did not do very well with last nights system at all.... Here at KABE we got 11.6 inches of snow... The ECM did not show this occurring (except in its longer range) The GFS did not show this occurring.... The GFS/ nor its means had a track as far west as the actual track occurred... The ECM did have the further west track solution correct but it was incorrect on the QPF.... However..before the ECM had the track correct..the NOGAPS already had it first.... Keep putting down the model , its all fine and well...but in the end ..the NOGAPS was correct before the rest.... in hearing your tirades about how the storm will ultimately track west, I have to say I'm genuinely happy for you and that we were all able to cash in on this surprise over-performer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks to me like the NOAGPS would be an awsome front end snow event followed by freezing rain? Probably a very ugly situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Alex, that would be absurd to see three feet of snow on the ground. I can't even imagine. why, last year we had 40" in a couple days>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 And the ECM did not do very well with last nights system at all.... Here at KABE we got 11.6 inches of snow... The ECM did not show this occurring (except in its longer range) The GFS did not show this occurring.... The GFS/ nor its means had a track as far west as the actual track occurred... The ECM did have the further west track solution correct but it was incorrect on the QPF.... However..before the ECM had the track correct..the NOGAPS already had it first.... Keep putting down the model , its all fine and well...but in the end ..the NOGAPS was correct before the rest.... the Ensembles of both did better than the OPs; I agree that the OPs were pretty miserable in that time range. The ensembles have been more consistent this year than any particular model..... even the nogaps But no model nor ensemble showed the kind of snow deluge we got yesterday and last night. That was the quickest 16 inches I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks to me like the NOAGPS would be an awsome front end snow event followed by freezing rain? Probably a very ugly situation. even w/ that 1034 High just north of Toronto? i know i know its the nogaps at 144 hours, just trying to learn though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Overrunning events are my favorite and perhaps I won't need to worry about WAA this time. A repeat of PD2-style overrunning would be awesome. What is "WAA"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks to me like the NOAGPS would be an awsome front end snow event followed by freezing rain? Probably a very ugly situation. I cannot access the 12Z NOGAPs beyond 114 yet, but the 06Z run had a solution somewhat similar to the Euro from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 in hearing your tirades about how the storm will ultimately track west, I have to say I'm genuinely happy for you and that we were all able to cash in on this surprise over-performer Thanks...its not really a tirade or anything such but more or less experience in models and there biases and how to apply them & then the pattern recognition via the teleconnections. I have not actually looked into this time frame at this particular point and time...other then quick model glances here and there.. I know the ECM went basically from a GLC to south and east last night (aka GFS) to a little further N/W today at 12 Z....similar to the GFS.... At this point i would probably say the ECM is to far south at 144 hrs...same thing with the GFS... (last night was not a surprise though it was rather anticipated here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What is "WAA"? It's the sound being made by every snow weenie northwest of I81 in Pennsylvania this winter. Just kidding ... sorry folks .... couldn't resist. Warm Air Advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I cannot access the 12Z NOGAPs beyond 114 yet, but the 06Z run had a solution somewhat similar to the Euro from what I see. I thought someone had posted it a page or two back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What is "WAA"? Think Ninjas!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks to me like the NOAGPS would be an awsome front end snow event followed by freezing rain? Probably a very ugly situation. mmmm, no. HP anchored in. Thats is the euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What is "WAA"? Warm air advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 And the ECM did not do very well with last nights system at all.... Here at KABE we got 11.6 inches of snow... The ECM did not show this occurring (except in its longer range) The GFS did not show this occurring.... The GFS/ nor its means had a track as far west as the actual track occurred... The ECM did have the further west track solution correct but it was incorrect on the QPF.... However..before the ECM had the track correct..the NOGAPS already had it first.... Keep putting down the model , its all fine and well...but in the end ..the NOGAPS was correct before the rest.... Agreed on all counts. HOWEVER, your argument for the NOGAPS for the past storm was that it should be used as a tool. You stated that it's coastal solution meant that other guidance was too far east, citing its progressive bias. You leaned more towards a coastal hugger and your reasoning for the NOGAPS should've led to a coastal hugger or maybe even slightly inland. Instead, the NOGAPS was spot on with the system from where is was modeled 4 days ago. It's true that the model was correct this time, but the fact that it was correct negates your usage of it as a "tool" and further exaggerates its inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This is getting ridiculous. Since we started tracking the Dec 19 non-event, I don't think there has been a day where I haven't looked at the models in some form. Anyway, anyone have the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's the sound being made by every snow weenie northwest of I81 in Pennsylvania this winter. Just kidding ... sorry folks .... couldn't resist. Warm Air Advection That's a low blow... We have absolutely every reason to gripe after last night. EVERY REASON! My seasonal total in Pittston is under 15 inches for the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Agreed on all counts. HOWEVER, your argument for the NOGAPS for the past storm was that it should be used as a tool. You stated that it's coastal solution meant that other guidance was too far east, citing its progressive bias. You leaned more towards a coastal hugger and your reasoning for the NOGAPS should've led to a coastal hugger or maybe even slightly inland. Instead, the NOGAPS was spot on with the system from where is was modeled 4 days ago. It's true that the model was correct this time, but the fact that it was correct negates your usage of it as a "tool" and further exaggerates its inconsistency. It has been very correct the past 2 storms as far as its idea of the system being west of what most models had but it was undergoing pretty bad swings as well as you basically say...one run it was over NYC, the next it was slightly east of the BM....but given other models were over the BM or east like the NAM/GFS that was likely a good indicator it was coming west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 mmmm, no. HP anchored in. Thats is the euro look. My mistake, I thought that was the current run that had been posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 My mistake, I thought that was the current run that had been posted. what was posted is not going to be freezing rain, that is what the euro does and I believe that was 12z. You see the banana arctic hp? that keeps the slp south. See where the slp countous are bowing too? that is probably the track the rest of the run, which would be righ to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That's a low blow... We have absolutely every reason to gripe after last night. EVERY REASON! My seasonal total in Pittston is under 15 inches for the year... I really was just trying for a laugh and wasn't trying to issue a low blow/incite anger. I was one of the "screwed" zone folks until yesterday's storm. Let's hope this next potential for 2/1 to 2/4 pans out for a much larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Thanks...its not really a tirade or anything such but more or less experience in models and there biases and how to apply them & then the pattern recognition via the teleconnections. I have not actually looked into this time frame at this particular point and time...other then quick model glances here and there.. I know the ECM went basically from a GLC to south and east last night (aka GFS) to a little further N/W today at 12 Z....similar to the GFS.... At this point i would probably say the ECM is to far south at 144 hrs...same thing with the GFS... (last night was not a surprise though it was rather anticipated here) Yeah I here what you're saying, but if you remember last week at this time the NOGAPS was showing an inland runner and adjusted east. It was also a little over amp'd and NW with the glorified clipper/cold front and eventually made a 60/40 compromise with the weaker/far southeast ECM. I think the idea you are saying is to bring the GFS/ECM farther north, but also bring the NOGAPS south a bit. Sound about right? ECM appears to be in pretty good agreement with the GEFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 My mistake, I thought that was the current run that had been posted. This image is the current image Its 144 hrs which is wed 12 Z .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's the sound being made by every snow weenie northwest of I81 in Pennsylvania this winter. Just kidding ... sorry folks .... couldn't resist. Do Ottawans make the same noise? Warm Air Advection Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This is getting ridiculous. Since we started tracking the Dec 19 non-event, I don't think there has been a day where I haven't looked at the models in some form. Anyway, anyone have the Euro ensembles? This whole winter is a ploy by the NWS to increase its ratings BTW Euro Ensembles come out around 3:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From HPC. Read the whole thing BROKEN FIBER OPTIC CABLE LIMITED MODEL AVAILIBILITY THIS MORNING AT TIME OF PRODUCT ISSUANCE. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES OF THE PAST TWO DAYS CONCERNED THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROF AXIS AND DELIVERY OF COLD AIR INTO CONUS WITH GFS SHUNTING MORE COLD AIR EASTWARD WITH ITS EASTWARD ORIENTED TROF AXIS WHILE ECMWF DROVE ITS TROF AXIS CONSIDERABLY MORE WEST. THIS WAS RESOLVED BY THE USE OF LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS WHICH WERE CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. TODAYS RUNS ARE SHOWING A CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH A SUPRESSION BY THE ECMWF OF ITS DEEP SFC INVERTED TROF IN THE MS VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS YIELDED ITS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING MORE SFC LOW TO COME OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE PERIOD. AT THE MID LEVELS GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A LINGERING POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WHILE TAKING THE MAIN TROF EAST DRIVING COLD AIR SOUTH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ERN CONUS. 00Z/12Z CMC AND UKMET BRING OUT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AS A GREATER WHOLE ENTITY RESULTING IN DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY. LAGGED AVERAGES FOR THE ECMWF ARE UNAVAILABLE. THE GFS ENS MEAN SEEMS TO BE A GOOD FIRST GUESS SOLUTION WITH REASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM PRIOR HPC SOLUTIONS AND A REASONABLE CONVERGENCE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS IS THE MORNING HPC SOLUTION FOR TODAY. NEW 12Z GFS KEEPS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN AND THIS WAS ADDED TO BLENDED SOLUTION TO ADD SOME DETAIL FOR AFTERNOON FINLA HPC PROGS. A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW WILL LEAVE A SWATH OF LT SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC ONSHORE LOW WILL BREAK OUT RAIN ACROSS TX AND LA AND WORK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO MID WEEK. SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD EITHER COMING OUT BODILY AS PER CMC AND UKMET INDUCING A STRONG LOWER MS VALLEY LOW OR COME OUT SHEARED LEAVING BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE TROF AXIS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LATTER SOLUTION PREFERRED AT THIS TIME BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WED. THIS SOLUTION HAS A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TUES TO THURSDAY ACROSS NR TX TO OK AND UP THE CENTRAL MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLC REGIONS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From the New England thread: Euro ensembles have something like the op wrt day 6 system. Nice little low scooting south of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From the New England thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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