SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 no block, no H5 capture, fast nina flow. The irony of this winter is the Nina is so strong its screwing places that normally get storms during Nina winters because the pattern is just too progressive....that coupled with the negative AO is forcing alot of arctic highs southward preventing the cutting storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 would love to know what happens on the euro between 144 and 168...anyone have access? It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 would love to know what happens on the euro between 144 and 168...anyone have access? per midlo DC-BWI gets 1.10-1.20 QPF, so I'm guessing PHL-NYC gets a good amount of liquid as well based on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The irony of this winter is the Nina is so strong its screwing places that normally get storms during Nina winters because the pattern is just too progressive....that coupled with the negative AO is forcing alot of arctic highs southward preventing the cutting storms as well. Yes, the thing that was supposed to kill this winter is actually making it historic, that along with perfect block in December into January, PNA amplification now, and the -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like the odds are good we get some wintry precip next week. That's all we can ask for-- especially the day after a foot and a half snowfall lol. I wouldn't let my guard down for the clipper either, models have obviously trended pretty wimpy with it but the 500mb signature is still strong on most models at 54-66 hours although its a bit too far northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in. oh boy... our friends north of ABE will love to see this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in. per midlo DC-BWI gets 1.10-1.20 QPF, so I'm guessing PHL-NYC gets a good amount of liquid as well based on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There is a 1032 high overtop.. i doubt it would cut and a beautiful +pna out west. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Check out the ecmf setup at 144 hours. Huge arctic high extending across the midwest into canada stretching out north of the great lakes and nice PNA ridge. This setup is noted on several of the GEFS. Exactly what you want to see with no high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If anyone has learned anything from this season, the models at this point should be taken with a "large" grain of salt. Once again we have found overselves in a fortunate position where the ingrediants are on the table and its only a matter of how well they fall into place, or perhaps fall apart. Does anyone have any good analogs for this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Another quick hitting storm, I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That -AO, +PNA, and La-Nina flow is def working in our favor, no doubt about that. Another week of tracking, just great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The irony of this winter is the Nina is so strong its screwing places that normally get storms during Nina winters because the pattern is just too progressive....that coupled with the negative AO is forcing alot of arctic highs southward preventing the cutting storms as well. I remember we talked about this at the beginning of the season-- could the la nina become so strong that it would bring the pattern full circle and actually be good for places that normally dont do well in strong la ninas? Sounds just like 1916-17/17-18 If youll notice the top three la ninas were all cold and snowy in the northeast. Of course they were all around 100 years ago or older lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One difference from last storm is that the ludicrous GEM solution has a ton of support from its ensembles...my favorite two are #18, the 978mb low north of Detroit and #2...a 993mb low driving right into a double high center of 1054mb and 1040mb http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Check out the ecmf setup at 144 hours. Huge arctic high extending across the midwest into canada stretching out north of the great lakes and nice PNA ridge. This setup is noted on several of the GEFS. Exactly what you want to see with no high latitude blocking. ala Jan 96' set-up with the banana high and 1040 on the western side of LP. just comapring the HP and LP placements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in. per midlo DC-BWI gets 1.10-1.20 QPF, so I'm guessing PHL-NYC gets a good amount of liquid as well based on the track This is for next Wednesday right? Right behind the overrunner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One difference from last storm is that the ludicrous GEM solution has a ton of support from its ensembles...my favorite two are #18, the 978mb low north of Detroit and #2...a 993mb low driving right into a double high center of 1054mb and 1040mb http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm They didn't look anything like that yesterday. I find that solution very dubious in light of the better GEFS, the OP GFS, and OP Euro. Hopefully someone has the euro ensembles today, they were very good with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 They didn't look anything like that yesterday. I find that solution very dubious in light of the better GEFS, the OP GFS, and OP Euro. Hopefully someone has the euro ensembles today, they were very good with this event. Yeah, we were riding the ensembles (both euro and gefs) while some others chose to ride the nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This is for next Wednesday right? Right behind the overrunner? Euro has some over running before the event at 156 but its warm. The totals I gave (conservative probably) are for the precip associated with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro has some over running before the event at 156 but its warm. The totals I gave (conservative probably) are for the precip associated with the coastal. Sounds like all snow if it takes the BM track. If so, we could be exceed 30" snowcover next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 They didn't look anything like that yesterday. I find that solution very dubious in light of the better GEFS, the OP GFS, and OP Euro. Hopefully someone has the euro ensembles today, they were very good with this event. The GEM and its ensembles all appear to be finding the weakness in between the two highs, the problem is that those arctic highs coming down the Plains are almost always faster than anticipated, hence why the GEM solution is unlikely...that model after being pretty good through mid-December has been very bad since, and particularly so since we lost the big west based block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yeah, we were riding the ensembles (both euro and gefs) while some others chose to ride the nogaps GEFS gets high marks in my book this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The GEM and its ensembles all appear to be finding the weakness in between the two highs, the problem is that those arctic highs coming down the Plains are almost always faster than anticipated, hence why the GEM solution is unlikely...that model after being pretty good through mid-December has been very bad since, and particularly so since we lost the big west based block. Agree all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sounds like all snow if it takes the BM track. If so, we could be exceed 30" snowcover next week. Alex, that would be absurd to see three feet of snow on the ground. I can't even imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The GEM and its ensembles all appear to be finding the weakness in between the two highs, the problem is that those arctic highs coming down the Plains are almost always faster than anticipated, hence why the GEM solution is unlikely...that model after being pretty good through mid-December has been very bad since, and particularly so since we lost the big west based block. SG, do you think the big west based block is coming back at some point in Feb? And if so, when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One difference from last storm is that the ludicrous GEM solution has a ton of support from its ensembles...my favorite two are #18, the 978mb low north of Detroit and #2...a 993mb low driving right into a double high center of 1054mb and 1040mb http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm Would #2 be a concern for major ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Alex, that would be absurd to see three feet of snow on the ground. I can't even imagine. I was looking through the pictures thread and some of those photos look like the images we find when we google up those historic snowfall pics. I mean, googling for huge snowdepth images should now yield pics from the tristate area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 per midlo DC-BWI gets 1.10-1.20 QPF, so I'm guessing PHL-NYC gets a good amount of liquid as well based on the track lol- so what do we know abt this winter?...that blob of heavier precip will further north...PERFECT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Check out the ecmf setup at 144 hours. Huge arctic high extending across the midwest into canada stretching out north of the great lakes and nice PNA ridge. This setup is noted on several of the GEFS. Exactly what you want to see with no high latitude blocking. kinda looks like a slightly more amped up version of Feb 2-4 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 lol- so what do we know abt this winter?...that blob of heavier precip will further north...PERFECT! Yeah, and its better for it to be a bit south of us at this range, since there has been a north trend. We're the snow magnet this year lol. But it does look like we all get into the action, so I wouldnt be surprised for widespread significant accumulations throughout the I-95 corridor if this solution comes close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.