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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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no block, no H5 capture, fast nina flow.

The irony of this winter is the Nina is so strong its screwing places that normally get storms during Nina winters because the pattern is just too progressive....that coupled with the negative AO is forcing alot of arctic highs southward preventing the cutting storms as well.

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would love to know what happens on the euro between 144 and 168...anyone have access?

It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in.

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The irony of this winter is the Nina is so strong its screwing places that normally get storms during Nina winters because the pattern is just too progressive....that coupled with the negative AO is forcing alot of arctic highs southward preventing the cutting storms as well.

Yes, the thing that was supposed to kill this winter is actually making it historic, that along with perfect block in December into January, PNA amplification now, and the -AO.

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Looks like the odds are good we get some wintry precip next week. That's all we can ask for-- especially the day after a foot and a half snowfall lol.

I wouldn't let my guard down for the clipper either, models have obviously trended pretty wimpy with it but the 500mb signature is still strong on most models at 54-66 hours although its a bit too far northward.

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It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in.

per midlo DC-BWI gets 1.10-1.20 QPF, so I'm guessing PHL-NYC gets a good amount of liquid as well based on the track

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Check out the ecmf setup at 144 hours. Huge arctic high extending across the midwest into canada stretching out north of the great lakes and nice PNA ridge. This setup is noted on several of the GEFS. Exactly what you want to see with no high latitude blocking.

f144.gif

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If anyone has learned anything from this season, the models at this point should be taken with a "large" grain of salt. Once again we have found overselves in a fortunate position where the ingrediants are on the table and its only a matter of how well they fall into place, or perhaps fall apart. Does anyone have any good analogs for this setup?

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The irony of this winter is the Nina is so strong its screwing places that normally get storms during Nina winters because the pattern is just too progressive....that coupled with the negative AO is forcing alot of arctic highs southward preventing the cutting storms as well.

I remember we talked about this at the beginning of the season-- could the la nina become so strong that it would bring the pattern full circle and actually be good for places that normally dont do well in strong la ninas? Sounds just like 1916-17/17-18 If youll notice the top three la ninas were all cold and snowy in the northeast. Of course they were all around 100 years ago or older lol.

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One difference from last storm is that the ludicrous GEM solution has a ton of support from its ensembles...my favorite two are #18, the 978mb low north of Detroit and #2...a 993mb low driving right into a double high center of 1054mb and 1040mb

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

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Check out the ecmf setup at 144 hours. Huge arctic high extending across the midwest into canada stretching out north of the great lakes and nice PNA ridge. This setup is noted on several of the GEFS. Exactly what you want to see with no high latitude blocking.

f144.gif

ala Jan 96' set-up with the banana high and 1040 on the western side of LP. just comapring the HP and LP placements

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It's a quick moving coastal that goes just about over the BM, maybe a touch SE and drops about .5 to .65 across the metro area less north more south. Its very cold with an arctic HP moving in.

per midlo DC-BWI gets 1.10-1.20 QPF, so I'm guessing PHL-NYC gets a good amount of liquid as well based on the track

This is for next Wednesday right? Right behind the overrunner?

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One difference from last storm is that the ludicrous GEM solution has a ton of support from its ensembles...my favorite two are #18, the 978mb low north of Detroit and #2...a 993mb low driving right into a double high center of 1054mb and 1040mb

http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm

They didn't look anything like that yesterday. I find that solution very dubious in light of the better GEFS, the OP GFS, and OP Euro. Hopefully someone has the euro ensembles today, they were very good with this event.

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They didn't look anything like that yesterday. I find that solution very dubious in light of the better GEFS, the OP GFS, and OP Euro. Hopefully someone has the euro ensembles today, they were very good with this event.

Yeah, we were riding the ensembles (both euro and gefs) while some others chose to ride the nogaps :whistle:

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Euro has some over running before the event at 156 but its warm. The totals I gave (conservative probably) are for the precip associated with the coastal.

Sounds like all snow if it takes the BM track. If so, we could be exceed 30" snowcover next week.

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They didn't look anything like that yesterday. I find that solution very dubious in light of the better GEFS, the OP GFS, and OP Euro. Hopefully someone has the euro ensembles today, they were very good with this event.

The GEM and its ensembles all appear to be finding the weakness in between the two highs, the problem is that those arctic highs coming down the Plains are almost always faster than anticipated, hence why the GEM solution is unlikely...that model after being pretty good through mid-December has been very bad since, and particularly so since we lost the big west based block.

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The GEM and its ensembles all appear to be finding the weakness in between the two highs, the problem is that those arctic highs coming down the Plains are almost always faster than anticipated, hence why the GEM solution is unlikely...that model after being pretty good through mid-December has been very bad since, and particularly so since we lost the big west based block.

Agree all the way.

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The GEM and its ensembles all appear to be finding the weakness in between the two highs, the problem is that those arctic highs coming down the Plains are almost always faster than anticipated, hence why the GEM solution is unlikely...that model after being pretty good through mid-December has been very bad since, and particularly so since we lost the big west based block.

SG, do you think the big west based block is coming back at some point in Feb? And if so, when?

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One difference from last storm is that the ludicrous GEM solution has a ton of support from its ensembles...my favorite two are #18, the 978mb low north of Detroit and #2...a 993mb low driving right into a double high center of 1054mb and 1040mb

http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm

Would #2 be a concern for major ice?

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Alex, that would be absurd to see three feet of snow on the ground. I can't even imagine.

I was looking through the pictures thread and some of those photos look like the images we find when we google up those historic snowfall pics. I mean, googling for huge snowdepth images should now yield pics from the tristate area ;)

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Check out the ecmf setup at 144 hours. Huge arctic high extending across the midwest into canada stretching out north of the great lakes and nice PNA ridge. This setup is noted on several of the GEFS. Exactly what you want to see with no high latitude blocking.

f144.gif

kinda looks like a slightly more amped up version of Feb 2-4 1996

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lol- so what do we know abt this winter?...that blob of heavier precip will further north...PERFECT!

Yeah, and its better for it to be a bit south of us at this range, since there has been a north trend. We're the snow magnet this year lol. But it does look like we all get into the action, so I wouldnt be surprised for widespread significant accumulations throughout the I-95 corridor if this solution comes close to verifying.

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