ag3 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have seen freezing drizzle but not a long period of freezing rain. The area saw snow and sleet in the VD storm. The only difference between that storm and this storm coming up are the temps. The temps during that storm were really cold. 1994 had many ice storms. Some were crippling. And yeah, VD 2007, I saw very little freezing rain. Lots of sleet and a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1994 had many ice storms. Some were crippling. The 1978 icestorm was really bad. http://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For the 2007 Sleet storms, since it was a heavier density than snow, had the afternath of a 8" snowfall when it was all cleared up. A boatload of sleet ontop of 18 to 24 inches of snow would be quite impressive to look at and perhaps will bulid a huge crust on it, which will take a long time to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm trying to make sense of next week's potential. I realize ALL snow is looking unlikely, but which of the following scenarios is more likely for NYC/LI proper? A) Accumulation snow followed by ice B ) Accumulating snow followed by ice then rain C) Accumulating snow followed by rain. Also, what would be the range of accumulating snow in any of those scenarios? Also earliest start times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What about the Interior regions of PA? I know it doesn't look good on the EC as you have stated but do the same conditions apply here? The NAM is a non event for I 95 with some ice/snow for PA (but nothing too major). I think at this point this is a best case scenario. On the EC, we really don't want anything to do with this. This looks like good ole fashion Chicago snowstorm. Everything is way to pronounced to get too excited on the EC. The WAA is very substantial on this run. I say let them have their fun in the Midwest and let the pattern re-establish itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nam text soundings show snow to freezing rain for NYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm trying to make sense of next week's potential. I realize ALL snow is looking unlikely, but which of the following scenarios is more likely for NYC/LI proper? A) Accumulation snow followed by ice B ) Accumulating snow followed by ice then rain C) Accumulating snow followed by rain. Also, what would be the range of accumulating snow in any of those scenarios? Also earliest start times? The Euro and GGEM show all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NYC can see significant freezing rain under the right circumstances. You would usually need a cold high providing NE/NNE winds at the surface with a low that tracks close enough to the coast to bring in warmer air aloft. This is what happened during VD 2007, although it was mostly sleet. But parts of CNJ saw significant freezing rain, especially in Monmouth and Northern Ocean counties. I'm looking at the January 7-8, 1994 upper air charts and it could be a close analog with the way the initial s/w with this storm takes on a SWFE form, as well as the 850 low going well n&w of the big cities, similar to Jan 7-8, 1994. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94-500MillibarMaps.html Personally I have given up on this being a mostly snow event and I think the concern should be about the ice potential. About a week and a half ago we saw significant freezing rain getting down into the immediate NYC suburbs, even into NYC itself if I recall correctly in a far less favorable setup in a double barrel low setup with the primary low heading into Buffalo. This time we have a parade of highs in southern Canada so I think some areas are in for significant icing as long as we don't get an overphased storm in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We're at 1000 so I hope no one minds if I start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm trying to make sense of next week's potential. I realize ALL snow is looking unlikely, but which of the following scenarios is more likely for NYC/LI proper? A) Accumulation snow followed by ice B ) Accumulating snow followed by ice then rain C) Accumulating snow followed by rain. Also, what would be the range of accumulating snow in any of those scenarios? Also earliest start times? I'm not sure we know. The Euro and GGEM have rain. Sounds like the NAM has snow to sleet & fr. rain. The GFS had snow to fr. rain to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not sure we know. The Euro and GGEM have rain. Sounds like the NAM has snow to sleet & fr. rain. The GFS had snow to fr. rain to rain. The GGEM had a long period of snow then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GGEM had a long period of snow then rain. Thanks, Snow88! Didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thanks, Snow88! Didn't know that. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS also has more overrunning precip like the nam has at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS is MUCH strong with that H over ND/SD and its influence over the NE is resulting in a colder solution than the NAM shows at 78hrs. Even the 850s are displaced 150 miles south on the GFS compared to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This thread needs to be closed - there is already a part 2 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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