2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM would seem at 72 hours to indicate the southern disturbance is not going to phase with the northern one.

[Porsche]

The NAM would seem at 72 hours to indicate the southern disturbance is not going to phase with the northern one.

That is good isn't we don't want a phase correct?

[SnowGoose69]

That is good isn't we don't want a phase correct?

It is to an extent but the southern disturbance is so darn strong it raises heights big time along the east coast...NYC would likely be PL by 78-84 hours...again the NAM is often a bit warm at 850 at its range so it could be 2-3C too mild at 850.

[MJO812]

Looks like .25-.50 QPF of snow or sleet with the 1st batch of overrunning. The 2nd part doesn't look good. It's really amplified in the midwest.

[Sundog]

What direction is the movement of that precip shield? I'm on a phone I can't tell. Anything less than 90 degrees and Philly could be left out of part 1 completely. Not that it matters at this range and model though.

[Alpha5]

Take it FWIW but the NAM has an icy scenario for the NYC suburbs

[SnowGoose69]

Looks like .25-.50 QPF of snow or sleet with the 1st batch of overrunning. The 2nd part doesn't look good. It's really amplified in the midwest.

Honestly, seeing the NAM only be that amplified at 84 hours is not that bad....the flow is still confluent over the eastern Lakes...that storm would begin cutting more ENE after 90 hours.

[rossi]

Take it FWIW but the NAM has an icy scenario for the NYC suburbs

Actually for everyone form C. NJ on north -- Surface is very cold.

Rossi

[MJO812]

It is to an extent but the southern disturbance is so darn strong it raises heights big time along the east coast...NYC would likely be PL by 78-84 hours...again the NAM is often a bit warm at 850 at its range so it could be 2-3C too mild at 850.

I think it's sleet from 78-84 hours. The 850's are warm but the surface stays freezing throughout the 1st event. Here is the surface at 84 hours.

[Alpha5]

Honestly, seeing the NAM only be that amplified at 84 hours is not that bad....the flow is still confluent over the eastern Lakes...that storm would begin cutting more ENE after 90 hours.

I was thinking the same thing, with the PV still up in eastern Canada, and strong confluence over the Lakes and NNE, I'd expect the system to move more easterly afterwords.....

Its not going to bull rush the PV

[Jet-Phase]

I noticed that the 2003 PDII was one of the analogs listed. The latest NAM reminds me of the 2 part system where the first one came through a couple of days before the main event. The strong banana-looking Highs look very simila ralong with the moisture source and where the battle lines are for this to be more easterly track.

[SnowGoose69]

How you can get a 996mb low there with no phase with the southern stream system just amplifying on its own makes no sense....generally the only time you see surface lows that deep over AR are when you have closed lows at 500.

[Storm At Sea]

This thing could be heading to MI, sparing the heavy rain for I 95.

[Voyager]

While I understand soundings to a degree, what does the area I pointed to imply. The column looks plenty saturated, but then the lines separate between 500 and 750 mb before coming back together. Does this indicate some sort of mid level drying?

NAM looks like it beginning to show a significant SWFE long before the main low gets here (ala GFS?) a lot more moisture on the 12z run thus far.

Whats a SWFE?

Southwest flow event, or an overrunning event

Interesting that the answers come quick when someone asks about a SWFE, but no one cares to answer my question about soundings.

[MJO812]

This thing could be heading to MI, sparing the heavy rain for I 95.

I would be fine with that.

[Mikehobbyst]

Per the NAM it looks like 3-6 inches of moderate to heavy SN going to PL, the second batch looks to be .50-1.00 inch ice storm for NYC and LI. This would definately be a crippling and damaging event with ice for Tristate area. Surface stays in the upper 20's here with -40 temps in Quebec City. I am downright scared about this event on Long Island for severe and debilitating ice storm condition. This looks likely with 1994 upper air match almost perfectly. This will very likely happen. 1/1994 repeat almost exactly it is scary.

[Alpha5]

Interesting that the answers come quick when someone asks about a SWFE, but no one cares to answer my question about soundings.

I dont know the answer to your question

[SnowGoose69]

This thing could be heading to MI, sparing the heavy rain for I 95.

I wish but I doubt it....the NAM being overamplified as always, and slow as always causes the confluence to die more over the NE so you get an extra west solution there...unfortunately a disaster rain track is still in the cards but I don't see anyway we get one far enough west.

[rossi]

Per the NAM it looks like 3-6 inches of moderate to heavy SN going to PL, the second batch looks to be .50-1.00 inch ice storm for NYC and LI. This would definately be a crippling and damaging event with ice for Tristate area. Surface stays in the upper 20's here with -40 temps in Quebec City. I am downright scared about this event on Long Island for severe and debilitating ice storm condition. This looks likely with 1994 upper air match almost perfectly. This will very likely happen. 1/1994 repeat almost exactly it is scary.

How do you come up with second part at 84 hours?

Rossi

[MJO812]

Here are the 12z Nam soundings for NYC.

Surface never gets past 30.9.

At hour 78, 850's warm up to 1.2 and at hour 84, they warm up to 3.4.

Total QPF is 0.44.

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Knyc.txt

[Blizzardo]

our last storm was suppose to be an icy mix until the models started to turn colder with snow... It's going to be mostly snow with maybe a little mix.. just like last time... The snow just keeps coming and coming.

[Tiburon]

Soundings on the 12Z NAM for KNYC indicate a warm layer from 800-900 mb @ hr78, when 0.25" of QPF is falling, This is IP. By hr84, everything from 800 down to the surface is above freezing, with a surface temp around 29-30F, so that will be ZR (period QPF 0.05").

[Storm At Sea]

The NAM is a non event for I 95 with some ice/snow for PA (but nothing too major). I think at this point this is a best case scenario. On the EC, we really don't want anything to do with this. This looks like good ole fashion Chicago snowstorm. Everything is way to pronounced to get too excited on the EC. The WAA is very substantial on this run. I say let them have their fun in the Midwest and let the pattern re-establish itself.

[MJO812]

Soundings on the 12Z NAM for KNYC indicate a warm layer from 800-900 mb @ hr78, when 0.25" of QPF is falling, This is IP. By hr84, everything from 800 down to the surface is above freezing, with a surface temp around 29-30F, so that will be ZR (period QPF 0.05").

It is snow to sleet for NYC on the Nam.

[Tiburon]

It is snow to sleet for NYC on the Nam.

                         Station ID: KNYC Lat:   40.78 Long:  -73.96                                                        
NAM Model Run: 12Z JAN 29, 2011                                                                                            

Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr   
Sfc Prs(mb):    1007.7 1009.0 1008.2 1009.9 1012.0 1014.4 1017.4 1021.1 1023.8 1024.5 1024.5 1022.8 1020.5 1016.4 1015.3   
Mean SLP (mb):  1013.7 1015.0 1014.2 1016.0 1018.2 1020.6 1023.5 1027.3 1030.1 1030.8 1030.8 1029.0 1026.6 1022.5 1021.4   
2m agl Tmp (F):   22.1   31.6   29.3   28.1   24.9   30.0   27.1   19.4   15.4   24.8   23.3   25.0   27.4   30.9   30.1   
2m agl Dewpt(F):  21.0   24.7   26.4   27.0   24.0   24.9   21.5   14.5   10.8   17.6   19.6   22.3   25.7   29.8   28.7   
2m agl RH (%):      95     75     89     96     96     81     79     81     82     74     86     89     93     95     94   
10m agl Dir:       293    277    218     21    325    295    306    326    357     20     85     97     74     87     51   
10m agl Spd(kt):     6      6      3      1      5      8      8      7      7      3      3      7     11      9     10   
6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.02   0.04   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.08   0.25   0.05   
AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.02   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.15   0.39   0.44   
Sfc CAPE (J/kg):   0.5    0.0   19.9    0.0    0.0    6.9    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   
Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -1.4   -0.5    0.0    0.0    0.0   -0.8   -0.4    0.0   -1.4    0.0    0.0    0.0   -2.7   -1.8   -0.9   
0-3km Hel(J/kg): 174.9  114.1  152.1  131.5  166.9  127.7   93.5  172.7  200.2  181.9  195.9  350.7  691.3  707.4  362.5   
Precip H20 (in):  0.21   0.29   0.33   0.30   0.28   0.26   0.20   0.17   0.19   0.26   0.34   0.55   0.67   0.75   0.74   
Lifted Index(C):  14.9   14.9   14.0   15.6   14.5   14.6   16.0   16.4   20.0   19.5   17.5   13.9   11.0    6.7    5.5   
700mb VV(-ub/s):  -3.3   -1.4    5.0   -1.7   -0.6   -2.1   -1.8   -1.0   -1.2   -0.6    0.9    2.3    3.5    2.0   -0.3   
Thk1000-500mb(m)5240.6 5259.9 5248.7 5287.8 5282.8 5265.8 5280.9 5280.1 5302.7 5318.2 5335.9 5353.4 5384.1 5421.6 5451.7   
Thk1000-850mb(m)1273.0 1272.4 1270.4 1274.5 1269.3 1269.8 1266.8 1262.5 1260.8 1263.9 1268.5 1267.6 1282.7 1303.8 1313.1   
Thk850-700mb(m):1481.2 1493.6 1488.4 1493.5 1500.1 1498.7 1508.8 1506.5 1511.3 1513.3 1520.6 1533.0 1539.5 1547.3 1555.1   
SWEAT Index:      77.6   94.7  110.2   99.9   89.4  115.0  139.6  110.9  104.6   85.5   79.2  203.3  236.6  237.0  256.6   
Total Totals Idx  34.1   31.0   34.6   32.2   34.0   32.8   26.4   20.5   13.8   15.2   24.1   33.4   37.8   43.9   45.0   
Frz Hgt(ft amsl)   154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154   
0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000   6099   7000   
Equil Prs (mb):   1008   1009   1008   1010   1012   1014   1017   1021   1024   1024   1025   1023   1021   1016   1015   
Equil Hgt(amsl):   154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154   
Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   
Conv Wind Gust:    8.8   10.2   11.4   10.8   11.0   12.4   14.0   12.1   11.0    9.4    8.8   10.4   12.0   47.1   43.8   
Showalter Index:  15.5   16.1   15.3   16.3   15.2   15.6   16.6   16.7   19.8   19.5   18.0   14.7   11.6    6.7    5.1   
Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9   
Storm Dir (deg):   318    303    302    311    313    311    318    318    321    305    295    284    275    276    282   
Storm Spd (kts):    21     24     27     26     26     30     34     29     26     22     21     24     28     30     22   
2m HeatIndex(F):    22     32     29     28     25     30     27     19     15     25     23     25     27     31     30   
2m WindChill(F):    13     25     25     28     18     22     18      9      5     20     18     17     17     22     21   

1000mb GPH (m):     108    119    112    125    142    161    184    211    229    237    238    225    208    177    168   
1000mb Temp (C):   -2.3   -0.8   -1.7   -2.3   -4.0   -2.2   -2.7   -6.6   -9.3   -6.2   -5.2   -5.1   -3.3   -0.7   -1.3   
1000mb Dewpt(C):   -5.8   -5.2   -3.5   -2.7   -4.6   -4.9   -6.6  -10.5  -12.8   -9.5   -8.0   -6.5   -3.9   -1.0   -1.6   
1000mb RH (%):       77     72     87     97     96     81     75     74     76     78     81     90     96     98     98   
1000mb Dir:         285    278    215     48    329    296    310    331      4     19     97    101     79    101     56   
1000mb Speed(kt):     6      7      4      1      6      8     12     11     11      3      5      9     13     10     11   

950mb GPH (m):     513    526    518    531    545    567    589    610    625    637    639    626    613    588    579   
950mb Temp (C):   -3.9   -3.9   -5.1   -4.5   -5.3   -5.2   -5.9   -9.0  -10.3   -8.9   -8.0   -7.7   -4.7   -0.5    0.6
950mb Dewpt(C):   -8.8   -9.6   -6.5   -5.6   -7.1   -8.5   -8.6  -12.5  -16.2  -13.8  -12.3   -9.5   -4.9   -0.5    0.5   
950mb RH (%):       69     65     90     92     87     78     81     76     62     68     72     87     98     99     99   
950mb Dir:         318    288    221    249    338    307    315    330      0    330    137    132    119    160    169   
950mb Speed(kt):    15     10      7      6     10     11     18     15     13      1      2     13     21     17      5   

900mb GPH (m):     938    949    940    955    968    989   1009   1027   1043   1055   1059   1046   1039   1021   1016   
900mb Temp (C):   -6.7   -7.3   -7.9   -6.1   -7.7   -8.2   -9.4   -8.6   -6.8   -7.5   -6.5   -7.9   -4.0    0.9    4.1
900mb Dewpt(C):  -10.3  -12.7   -9.1   -7.2   -9.5  -10.7  -13.4  -19.3  -22.7  -22.9  -17.6  -10.2   -4.2    0.9    3.6   
900mb RH (%):       76     66     91     92     87     82     73     42     27     28     41     84     98    100     96   
900mb Dir:         312    277    249    269    332    308    322    316    319    273    228    181    181    208    224   
900mb Speed(kt):    12     12     10     12     10     14     22     15     11      6      5     13     26     32     27   

850mb GPH (m):    1381   1391   1383   1400   1411   1431   1451   1473   1490   1501   1506   1492   1491   1481   1481   
850mb Temp (C):  -10.6  -10.1   -9.3   -8.7   -8.9   -9.7   -7.1   -5.7   -5.7   -5.9   -5.1   -5.1   -2.7    1.2    3.4
850mb Dewpt(C):  -12.7  -15.8   -9.9  -10.1  -11.7  -14.0  -18.7  -25.4  -25.8  -25.0  -15.4   -5.2   -2.7    1.2    3.1   
850mb RH (%):       85     63     95     90     81     71     40     20     19     21     44     99    100    100     98   
850mb Dir:         276    274    260    284    281    291    302    291    298    277    238    229    223    232    233   
850mb Speed(kt):    10     18     18     11     12     19     26     20     19     13     13     26     36     45     34   

800mb GPH (m):    1844   1859   1851   1868   1880   1899   1924   1947   1964   1976   1983   1971   1973   1969   1972   
800mb Temp (C):  -13.3   -9.7  -10.2  -10.3   -9.1   -8.7   -6.7   -6.7   -6.1   -6.3   -4.7   -2.7   -1.6   -0.1    1.0 
800mb Dewpt(C):  -18.2  -18.3  -10.8  -12.9  -15.1  -17.5  -24.1  -29.0  -25.6  -23.3  -12.4   -2.7   -1.6   -0.6    0.5   
800mb RH (%):       67     50     96     81     62     49     24     15     20     25     55    100    100     96     96   
800mb Dir:         272    276    264    267    279    283    294    288    289    273    254    243    239    242    243   
800mb Speed(kt):    15     27     25     12     20     29     33     26     26     22     21     36     46     50     29 

Really? Snow at the outset--early, then the warm surge comes in and turns it to IP then ZR. Don't know how you look at that and see otherwise. IP is sleet, you know. Even the snow that falls will be wet junk.

[MJO812]

                         Station ID: KNYC Lat:   40.78 Long:  -73.96                                                        
NAM Model Run: 12Z JAN 29, 2011                                                                                            

Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr   
Sfc Prs(mb):    1007.7 1009.0 1008.2 1009.9 1012.0 1014.4 1017.4 1021.1 1023.8 1024.5 1024.5 1022.8 1020.5 1016.4 1015.3   
Mean SLP (mb):  1013.7 1015.0 1014.2 1016.0 1018.2 1020.6 1023.5 1027.3 1030.1 1030.8 1030.8 1029.0 1026.6 1022.5 1021.4   
2m agl Tmp (F):   22.1   31.6   29.3   28.1   24.9   30.0   27.1   19.4   15.4   24.8   23.3   25.0   27.4   30.9   30.1   
2m agl Dewpt(F):  21.0   24.7   26.4   27.0   24.0   24.9   21.5   14.5   10.8   17.6   19.6   22.3   25.7   29.8   28.7   
2m agl RH (%):      95     75     89     96     96     81     79     81     82     74     86     89     93     95     94   
10m agl Dir:       293    277    218     21    325    295    306    326    357     20     85     97     74     87     51   
10m agl Spd(kt):     6      6      3      1      5      8      8      7      7      3      3      7     11      9     10   
6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.02   0.04   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.08   0.25   0.05   
AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.02   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.06   0.15   0.39   0.44   
Sfc CAPE (J/kg):   0.5    0.0   19.9    0.0    0.0    6.9    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   
Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -1.4   -0.5    0.0    0.0    0.0   -0.8   -0.4    0.0   -1.4    0.0    0.0    0.0   -2.7   -1.8   -0.9   
0-3km Hel(J/kg): 174.9  114.1  152.1  131.5  166.9  127.7   93.5  172.7  200.2  181.9  195.9  350.7  691.3  707.4  362.5   
Precip H20 (in):  0.21   0.29   0.33   0.30   0.28   0.26   0.20   0.17   0.19   0.26   0.34   0.55   0.67   0.75   0.74   
Lifted Index(C):  14.9   14.9   14.0   15.6   14.5   14.6   16.0   16.4   20.0   19.5   17.5   13.9   11.0    6.7    5.5   
700mb VV(-ub/s):  -3.3   -1.4    5.0   -1.7   -0.6   -2.1   -1.8   -1.0   -1.2   -0.6    0.9    2.3    3.5    2.0   -0.3   
Thk1000-500mb(m)5240.6 5259.9 5248.7 5287.8 5282.8 5265.8 5280.9 5280.1 5302.7 5318.2 5335.9 5353.4 5384.1 5421.6 5451.7   
Thk1000-850mb(m)1273.0 1272.4 1270.4 1274.5 1269.3 1269.8 1266.8 1262.5 1260.8 1263.9 1268.5 1267.6 1282.7 1303.8 1313.1   
Thk850-700mb(m):1481.2 1493.6 1488.4 1493.5 1500.1 1498.7 1508.8 1506.5 1511.3 1513.3 1520.6 1533.0 1539.5 1547.3 1555.1   
SWEAT Index:      77.6   94.7  110.2   99.9   89.4  115.0  139.6  110.9  104.6   85.5   79.2  203.3  236.6  237.0  256.6   
Total Totals Idx  34.1   31.0   34.6   32.2   34.0   32.8   26.4   20.5   13.8   15.2   24.1   33.4   37.8   43.9   45.0   
Frz Hgt(ft amsl)   154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154   
0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000   6099   7000   
Equil Prs (mb):   1008   1009   1008   1010   1012   1014   1017   1021   1024   1024   1025   1023   1021   1016   1015   
Equil Hgt(amsl):   154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154   
Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   
Conv Wind Gust:    8.8   10.2   11.4   10.8   11.0   12.4   14.0   12.1   11.0    9.4    8.8   10.4   12.0   47.1   43.8   
Showalter Index:  15.5   16.1   15.3   16.3   15.2   15.6   16.6   16.7   19.8   19.5   18.0   14.7   11.6    6.7    5.1   
Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9   
Storm Dir (deg):   318    303    302    311    313    311    318    318    321    305    295    284    275    276    282   
Storm Spd (kts):    21     24     27     26     26     30     34     29     26     22     21     24     28     30     22   
2m HeatIndex(F):    22     32     29     28     25     30     27     19     15     25     23     25     27     31     30   
2m WindChill(F):    13     25     25     28     18     22     18      9      5     20     18     17     17     22     21   

1000mb GPH (m):     108    119    112    125    142    161    184    211    229    237    238    225    208    177    168   
1000mb Temp (C):   -2.3   -0.8   -1.7   -2.3   -4.0   -2.2   -2.7   -6.6   -9.3   -6.2   -5.2   -5.1   -3.3   -0.7   -1.3   
1000mb Dewpt(C):   -5.8   -5.2   -3.5   -2.7   -4.6   -4.9   -6.6  -10.5  -12.8   -9.5   -8.0   -6.5   -3.9   -1.0   -1.6   
1000mb RH (%):       77     72     87     97     96     81     75     74     76     78     81     90     96     98     98   
1000mb Dir:         285    278    215     48    329    296    310    331      4     19     97    101     79    101     56   
1000mb Speed(kt):     6      7      4      1      6      8     12     11     11      3      5      9     13     10     11   

950mb GPH (m):     513    526    518    531    545    567    589    610    625    637    639    626    613    588    579   
950mb Temp (C):   -3.9   -3.9   -5.1   -4.5   -5.3   -5.2   -5.9   -9.0  -10.3   -8.9   -8.0   -7.7   -4.7   -0.5    0.6   
950mb Dewpt(C):   -8.8   -9.6   -6.5   -5.6   -7.1   -8.5   -8.6  -12.5  -16.2  -13.8  -12.3   -9.5   -4.9   -0.5    0.5   
950mb RH (%):       69     65     90     92     87     78     81     76     62     68     72     87     98     99     99   
950mb Dir:         318    288    221    249    338    307    315    330      0    330    137    132    119    160    169   
950mb Speed(kt):    15     10      7      6     10     11     18     15     13      1      2     13     21     17      5   

900mb GPH (m):     938    949    940    955    968    989   1009   1027   1043   1055   1059   1046   1039   1021   1016   
900mb Temp (C):   -6.7   -7.3   -7.9   -6.1   -7.7   -8.2   -9.4   -8.6   -6.8   -7.5   -6.5   -7.9   -4.0    0.9    4.1   
900mb Dewpt(C):  -10.3  -12.7   -9.1   -7.2   -9.5  -10.7  -13.4  -19.3  -22.7  -22.9  -17.6  -10.2   -4.2    0.9    3.6   
900mb RH (%):       76     66     91     92     87     82     73     42     27     28     41     84     98    100     96   
900mb Dir:         312    277    249    269    332    308    322    316    319    273    228    181    181    208    224   
900mb Speed(kt):    12     12     10     12     10     14     22     15     11      6      5     13     26     32     27   

850mb GPH (m):    1381   1391   1383   1400   1411   1431   1451   1473   1490   1501   1506   1492   1491   1481   1481   
850mb Temp (C):  -10.6  -10.1   -9.3   -8.7   -8.9   -9.7   -7.1   -5.7   -5.7   -5.9   -5.1   -5.1   -2.7    1.2    3.4   
850mb Dewpt(C):  -12.7  -15.8   -9.9  -10.1  -11.7  -14.0  -18.7  -25.4  -25.8  -25.0  -15.4   -5.2   -2.7    1.2    3.1   
850mb RH (%):       85     63     95     90     81     71     40     20     19     21     44     99    100    100     98   
850mb Dir:         276    274    260    284    281    291    302    291    298    277    238    229    223    232    233   
850mb Speed(kt):    10     18     18     11     12     19     26     20     19     13     13     26     36     45     34   

800mb GPH (m):    1844   1859   1851   1868   1880   1899   1924   1947   1964   1976   1983   1971   1973   1969   1972   
800mb Temp (C):  -13.3   -9.7  -10.2  -10.3   -9.1   -8.7   -6.7   -6.7   -6.1   -6.3   -4.7   -2.7   -1.6   -0.1    1.0   
800mb Dewpt(C):  -18.2  -18.3  -10.8  -12.9  -15.1  -17.5  -24.1  -29.0  -25.6  -23.3  -12.4   -2.7   -1.6   -0.6    0.5   
800mb RH (%):       67     50     96     81     62     49     24     15     20     25     55    100    100     96     96   
800mb Dir:         272    276    264    267    279    283    294    288    289    273    254    243    239    242    243   
800mb Speed(kt):    15     27     25     12     20     29     33     26     26     22     21     36     46     50     29 

Really? Snow at the outset--early, then the warm surge comes in and turns it to IP then ZR. Don't know how you look at that and see otherwise.

NYC rarely sees freezing rain. This is the Nam, so I wouldn't take it seriously just yet.

[SnowGoose69]

NYC rarely sees freezing rain. This is the Nam, so I wouldn't take it seriously just yet.

I agree, The NAM is way too mild at 72-84...as I said 2-3C, maybe more....I have never in my life seen NYC see anything but snow in that sort of synoptic setup, ever....certainly not freezing rain....its just hard with that sort of vortex and the S/W that far away too see temps warm that much....the key is the thickness being only 540-546....I've seen these setups before and usually you're snow to around a 543 thickness with sleet from 543 to as much as 550.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0211.php

[JBG]

NYC rarely sees freezing rain. This is the Nam, so I wouldn't take it seriously just yet.

In December 1973 storm, Valentines Day 2007 storm? Well including IP, it happens.

[MJO812]

I agree, The NAM is way too mild at 72-84...as I said 2-3C, maybe more....I have never in my life seen NYC see anything but snow in that sort of synoptic setup, ever....certainly not freezing rain....its just hard with that sort of vortex and the S/W that far away too see temps warm that much....the key is the thickness being only 540-546....I've seen these setups before and usually you're snow to around a 543 thickness with sleet from 543 to as much as 550.

I have seen freezing drizzle but not a long period of freezing rain.

In December 1973 storm, Valentines Day 2007 storm? Well including IP, it happens.

The area saw snow and sleet in the VD storm. The only difference between that storm and this storm coming up are the temps. The temps during that storm were really cold.

[Tiburon]

In December 1973 storm, Valentines Day 2007 storm? Well including IP, it happens.

The reason why NYC rarely sees ZR is because of their proximity to maritime air. Rarely does the layers 800-950mb warm above 0C while keeping the surface below. Usually a warm low level fetch warms the whole lower atmosphere and you see plain rain. It's either the "warm nose" @ 700-800mb that yields IP or it's just good old rain.

And just to note, I wasn't arguing that we will see ZR--I was stating what the model indicated, irrespective of climo.