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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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6Z GFS advertises 5-8" snow for NYC metro than some sleet/ice...

post-852-0-04124500-1296308216.jpg

This is the sort of thing I'm worried about....

HPN: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

BDR: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KBDR&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Yes, this does tend to misrepresent precip in marginal situations, but it goes to show the potential for an ice storm is certainly there

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New SREFS still show the precip breaking out way ahead of the main system with snow over the NYC metro as early as 6Z Tuesday and still snowing at 00z Wednesday. 850 and surface still below 0 at 87 hours but warming quickly. This is all ahead of the main system which is still over the south.

KNYC gets .5 of precip all snow through this time.

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FWIW, the DGEX track is VERY similar to the 00z ECMWF. I know that there are a lot of factors to consider, but at face value, it looks like the ECMWF is indeed way too warm, given that sort of track. (someone else eluded to this very early this morning)

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might be the weenie in me showing up, but that looks 96ish to me.

No. There is no blocking and the pac looks different. 96 is a poor analogue until the blocking comes back and then its still a poor analogue because that was a highly anomolous setup. This storm is getting mentioned way too much. As great as all the storms have been, that one is still unlike any of these because that had single digit and negative temps to start over the north east and it had a long duration over running before the coastal ever got up here.

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The Wxsim program with the 6z data has come in with a more liquid solution...almost 1/3 of the precip falling with temps above freezing (I personally have doubts if temps will ever really get above freezing here)

Summary

2" of light snow during Tuesday starting after Midnight monday nite (both the tuesday and wednesday AM commutes could be problems)

Heavier precip after midnight into Wed AM...2 or 3" of more snow before changeover

Almost 1" of liquid falls before temps get above freezing around 2pm on Wed afternoon.

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I personally think its time to burry the 96 analog. That was a once in a lifetime event for almost everyone involved here. To get another one like it or exactly like it would be a merical, so i think just drop it from here on out, if its there one a model one day within said 12 to 48 hours out from the event then maybe one could bring it up, but just let it go, its in the past.

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WE ALL personally think its time to burry the 96 analog. That was a once in a lifetime event for almost everyone involved here. To get another one like it or exactly like it would be a merical, so i think just drop it from here on out, if its there one a model one day within said 12 to 48 hours out from the event then maybe one could bring it up, but just let it go, its in the past.

fyp.

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At 72 hours, light to moderate precip is coming into the area. 850's look ok with the surface below freezing.

Ant, maybe this time it will be reverse and we get blizzard instead of ice storm...

For that to happen, we need a strong high up north and the storm to be much weaker than what is modeled.

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