Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro ensembles agree with the Euro OP....possibly just a hair faster. Hmm, not good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS painting an ominous solution for NYC's N/W suburbs.... About 3-6 of snow then up to .5" of ice as the mid levels go above freezing but the surface stays cold 6Z GFS advertises 5-8" snow for NYC metro than some sleet/ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One would think being the "battle zone" for this event is probably not the safest place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 6Z GFS advertises 5-8" snow for NYC metro than some sleet/ice... This is the sort of thing I'm worried about.... HPN: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec BDR: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KBDR&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Yes, this does tend to misrepresent precip in marginal situations, but it goes to show the potential for an ice storm is certainly there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 New SREFS still show the precip breaking out way ahead of the main system with snow over the NYC metro as early as 6Z Tuesday and still snowing at 00z Wednesday. 850 and surface still below 0 at 87 hours but warming quickly. This is all ahead of the main system which is still over the south. KNYC gets .5 of precip all snow through this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 While I understand sounding to a degree, what does the area I pointed to imply. The column looks plenty saturated, but then the lines separate between 500 and 750 mb before coming back together. Does this indicate some sort of mid level drying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW, the DGEX track is VERY similar to the 00z ECMWF. I know that there are a lot of factors to consider, but at face value, it looks like the ECMWF is indeed way too warm, given that sort of track. (someone else eluded to this very early this morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 might be the weenie in me showing up, but that looks 96ish to me. No. There is no blocking and the pac looks different. 96 is a poor analogue until the blocking comes back and then its still a poor analogue because that was a highly anomolous setup. This storm is getting mentioned way too much. As great as all the storms have been, that one is still unlike any of these because that had single digit and negative temps to start over the north east and it had a long duration over running before the coastal ever got up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Wxsim program with the 6z data has come in with a more liquid solution...almost 1/3 of the precip falling with temps above freezing (I personally have doubts if temps will ever really get above freezing here) Summary 2" of light snow during Tuesday starting after Midnight monday nite (both the tuesday and wednesday AM commutes could be problems) Heavier precip after midnight into Wed AM...2 or 3" of more snow before changeover Almost 1" of liquid falls before temps get above freezing around 2pm on Wed afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 might be the weenie in me showing up, but that looks 96ish to me. only if you like rain, because that shows rain or ZR straight up the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I personally think its time to burry the 96 analog. That was a once in a lifetime event for almost everyone involved here. To get another one like it or exactly like it would be a merical, so i think just drop it from here on out, if its there one a model one day within said 12 to 48 hours out from the event then maybe one could bring it up, but just let it go, its in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WE ALL personally think its time to burry the 96 analog. That was a once in a lifetime event for almost everyone involved here. To get another one like it or exactly like it would be a merical, so i think just drop it from here on out, if its there one a model one day within said 12 to 48 hours out from the event then maybe one could bring it up, but just let it go, its in the past. fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2007 VDay storm now the #1 analog... http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL That was the worst sleet storm that I ever saw. I got 5 inches of sleet with temps starting off in the upper teens. 17 hours of sleet after 1 inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 54 hours on the 12Z NAM the southern disturbance is way more amplified while the northern one is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Same here....6" of IP That was the worst sleet storm that I ever saw. I got 5 inches of sleet with temps starting off in the upper teens. 17 hours of sleet after 1 inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM looks like it beginning to show a significant SWFE long before the main low gets here (ala GFS?) a lot more moisture on the 12z run thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Same here....6" of IP 2 days before that event, the models had a major blizzard for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't like the looks of the Nam at 66 hours. It looks really amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM looks like it beginning to show a significant SWFE long before the main low gets here (ala GFS?) a lot more moisture on the 12z run thus far. Whats a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM looks like it beginning to show a significant SWFE long before the main low gets here (ala GFS?) a lot more moisture on the 12z run thus far. The stronger the southern wave is the more likely there could be major overrunning snows well in advance, almost causing a two part storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Whats a SWFE? Southwest flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Whats a SWFE? Southwest flow event, or an overrunning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Southwest flow event, or an overrunning event Thanks to both of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The stronger the southern wave is the more likely there could be major overrunning snows well in advance, almost causing a two part storm. Well ATTM probably our best chance of 3 - 6" before the slop-fest begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2 days before that event, the models had a major blizzard for the NYC area. Ant, maybe this time it will be reverse and we get blizzard instead of ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Southwest flow event, or an overrunning event single white females (entertained) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It seems unlikely for a storm to cut given the positioning of the PV.....definitely have to watch its orientation on the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At 72 hours, light to moderate precip is coming into the area. 850's look ok with the surface below freezing. Ant, maybe this time it will be reverse and we get blizzard instead of ice storm... For that to happen, we need a strong high up north and the storm to be much weaker than what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow is the NAM going nuts insane moisture of the NE at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM has strong WAA precip again, seems like it wants to continue to break this into a 2 part storm Makes sense too...-40c 850's showing up in Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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