MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The EC just seems way too warm....we struggled to go to rain in the event 2 weeks ago with a much lousier setup...we don't have much of an onshore gradient with this compared to that event so I'm just lost why the EC and GEM to an extent are warming the surface so violently. ....the other thing I notice is that the appearance at 500mb is so strung out over the Plains at 72-96 hours on all the guidance...you would sort of thing the low track would want to go more SE based on that H5 appearance...its possible there is a delay currently ongoing and if that H5 depiction is correct we may see future runs going more east or SE with the track. Yea I agree. The GGEM doesn't even really have all that deep of a low pressure to begin with and a broad stripe of high pressure to the north across Canada and even has a secondary reflection to the coast but still somehow routs out the cold quickly... Even in the interior. The European has a stronger system and levels it out to 996-1000mb and an opened up H5 low as it moves thru the mid-atlantic. It certainly could argue for a more progressive further southeast system. The Euro is also hanging back a ton of energy in the SW US too. While i def think Philly and potentially NYC have a pretty high chance of seeing mixing and/or rain issues at some point with this next system.. its more than likely going to come after an extended period of overrunning snows with whatever decides to come out of the plains. Given what you said about the onshore gradient, as well as the fact that pretty much the entire region has a decent snowpack to help keep surface temps down, its probably not going to be a pretty transition if it comes down to a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thermal gradient on the NAM at 78 hours at 850mb is remarkable...its no wonder its breaking out snow from PA eastward...the 850mb temps are +3C south of PIT and -6C over Erie...further east we have +1C at Cape May and -5C over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thermal gradient on the NAM at 78 hours at 850mb is remarkable...its no wonder its breaking out snow from PA eastward...the 850mb temps are +3C south of PIT and -6C over Erie...further east we have +1C at Cape May and -5C over NYC. NYC metro gets crushed with overrunning snows on the 6z NAM...surface temperatures are much colder than 850s, too, so we'd probably change over to freezing rain for the bulk of the storm after a significant front end dump. Definitely not a pretty situation evolving in terms of road conditions, potential power outages, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thermal gradient on the NAM at 78 hours at 850mb is remarkable...its no wonder its breaking out snow from PA eastward...the 850mb temps are +3C south of PIT and -6C over Erie...further east we have +1C at Cape May and -5C over NYC. It's probably eventually going to be important to watch where this gradient and associated axis of overrunning snow sets up ahead of the system, cuz it could tip off which folks see an extended period of snow or frozen from the main storm system itself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here's the clown map from the 00z GFS FWIW: Definitely has a SW flow event look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Another run of the DGEX with a super bomb late in the period. Ironic that both the Euro and the 0z GFS now have some sort of low off the SE coastline the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2007 VDay storm now the #1 analog... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 From Mount Holly this morning on the Tuesday/Wednesday storm: FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD WORK ITS WAY UP THE TROUGH, REACHING THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM`S MAIN ENERGY WILL JUMP TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECONDARY LOW RACING TOWARD COASTAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE IN OUR REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. WHILE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WINTRY MIX FOR OUR REGION, THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FORECASTS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AND ON CLIMATOLOGY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GREATER FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOSTLY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2007 VDay storm now the #1 analog... http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL nastiest storm I may ever witness. Still can't believe I got 5-6 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This will very likely be a winter storm warning or ice storm warning event for NYC and LI. Plain rain is out of the question with the entire event below freezing at the surface per the model consensus 2 meter temps. I would forecast 6-10 inches of snow followed by .50 inch ice accrual. This upcoming event looks extremely dangerous for NYC and LI. It looks to make an event from the 93-94 winter and V-Day 2007 its *%$@&. Is there any viability to the DGEX explosive cyclogenesies and its 20 inch snow storm for the very end of the week ????? Thanks in advance for your take on these events and position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2007 VDay storm now the #1 analog... http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL I mentioned that earlier tonight after seeing the 0z GFS. Still though, the QPF totals were over 3" in a lot of places and no model is showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nastiest storm I may ever witness. Still can't believe I got 5-6 inches of sleet. Probably the worst for me as well. I ended up with about 10 inches of concrete when it was over. A few things I'll remember most about that storm was the spike in temperature, the condition of the roads, and having my car frozen into a puddle for two days. The spike in temp occurred around 11:00AM when we hit 40.6 with heavy rain, which fell on top of about 3-4 inches of snow/sleet. By 3PM the temp had dropped to 18.7 with heavy snow with 6-7 more inches falling. Everything that saturated from the 40 degree rain spike froze up solid. Major streets had about a 2 to 3 inch ice pack that was more reminiscent of an 1890's stagecoach path then a 21st century city street. Here is the temp graph from that day for Tamaqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Probably the worst for me as well. I ended up with about 10 inches of concrete when it was over. A few things I'll remember most about that storm was the spike in temperature, the condition of the roads, and having my car frozen into a puddle for two days. The spike in temp occurred around 11:00AM when we hit 40.6 with heavy rain, which fell on top of about 3-4 inches of snow/sleet. By 3PM the temp had dropped to 18.7 with heavy snow with 6-7 more inches falling. Everything that saturated from the 40 degree rain spike froze up solid. Major streets had about a 2 to 3 inch ice pack that was more reminiscent of an 1890's stagecoach path then a 21st century city street. Here is the temp graph from that day for Tamaqua. good stuff Voyager! I think Tamaqua, and especially Hazelton, does well this storm, although we're all in for the mix. Can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i think a lot of ya'll end up happy with this one when you look back as it will give you a great crust preserving your snowpack for the next round of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like one group of maps is wrong. Firstly, the EC track innitially is too far west for the low to logically track over Boston and off the coast of Maine. It's just a very unusual and unlikely track IMO. The mistake by the model could be one of several. Maybe the track is too far west early on. That western track would not trigger an offshore secondary especially with HP exiting the the ne coast. Or perhaps the low doesn't move over Boston but rather into Ontario--not off the Maine coast. That too would make more sense to me. If the track were further east on the other hand and the HP more locked in, we could see a secondary form off the MA coast and take over to make everybody happy. The verdict is still out. WX/PT Pete! Wow...remember you from the old ne.weather days in the 90s...i think i was marknphilly then...live in nh now. I think this is a classic swfe redeveloper where you guys get a front end dump, switch to sleet and frzg rain...low level cold holds longer than modeled and someone gets a wicked bad ice storm....then the cold comes chargin in and you have your snowpack crust. Maybe we get a couple more swfes and even a cutter but in a couple of weeks NAO goes negative and you guys are getting dumped on again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well I figured I'd throw this out there....From Upton this morning - .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE OUT AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF TO THE TENN VALLEY WED. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT A TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS WELL. THIS TRACK NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH A MIX LIKELY. INTERIOR LOCALES COULD REMAIN ALL SNOW HOWEVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON STORM EVOLUTION...FOR NOW WILL AVOID PTYPE SPECIFICS...AND LEAN TOWARD SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PTYPE BASED ON SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENT NEARS...INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MIXED PTYPES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE HAS SUGGESTED OTHERWISE...SO STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well I figured I'd throw this out there....From Upton this morning - .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE OUT AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF TO THE TENN VALLEY WED. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT A TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS WELL. THIS TRACK NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH A MIX LIKELY. INTERIOR LOCALES COULD REMAIN ALL SNOW HOWEVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON STORM EVOLUTION...FOR NOW WILL AVOID PTYPE SPECIFICS...AND LEAN TOWARD SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PTYPE BASED ON SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENT NEARS...INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MIXED PTYPES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE HAS SUGGESTED OTHERWISE...SO STAY TUNED. JB Morning update with 4-8" of snow NYC, then a change to sleet/ice. 3-6" PHL with more ice/sleet and maybe rain down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Do you think Long Island gets an icestorm that will rival 1/1994 in terms of accrual (>.75 inch ice accrual) Pattern looks prime for icestorm if the snow does change to extended ZR with 28-29 F temps for extended time. Very concerned about widespread tree and roof failures if this comes to fruition with deep cement snow around and long duration power outages. I really fear this. Does this look very probable for LI this week ? I hope this does not happen here. Ice storm warning incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JB Morning update with 4-8" of snow NYC, then a change to sleet/ice. 3-6" PHL with more ice/sleet and maybe rain down there. No models can be taken verbatum this year at all....every storm has models flip floping all over the place...It seems like we know something is coming and until 24 hrs out we don't know exactly what that is. Way to go this year is sit back and watch model trends and see how everything evolves for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Do you think Long Island gets an icestorm that will rival 1/1994 in terms of accrual (>.75 inch ice accrual) Pattern looks prime for icestorm if the snow does change to extended ZR with 28-29 F temps for extended time. Very concerned about widespread tree and roof failures if this comes to fruition with deep cement snow around and long duration power outages. I really fear this. Does this look very probable for LI this week ? I hope this does not happen here. Ice storm warning incoming. Jesus...I hope not....If you ask me, an ice storm is the absolute worst type of event that there is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jesus...I hope not....If you ask me, an ice storm is the absolute worst type of event that there is.... especially with a 15-25" snow depth region wide.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Do you think Long Island gets an icestorm that will rival 1/1994 in terms of accrual (>.75 inch ice accrual) Pattern looks prime for icestorm if the snow does change to extended ZR with 28-29 F temps for extended time. Very concerned about widespread tree and roof failures if this comes to fruition with deep cement snow around and long duration power outages. I really fear this. Does this look very probable for LI this week ? I hope this does not happen here. Ice storm warning incoming. This is the WORST case scenario.. If this were to happen, there would be serious problems... and i mean serious problems... especially w/ our deep snow pack.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC Saturday Morning still going with Heavy Snow north of Ohio River and Mason Dixon Line - The heavy rains stay south of there .. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 644 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 02 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONG MEAN RIDGE FROM THE ERN PAC NWD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN SHAPE OCCUR AS SHRTWVS ROUND THE RIDGE. ASSOC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO BE STRONGEST OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY D+8. FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE... GUIDANCE DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF FROM ERN CANADA SWWD. ONE OR MORE INSTANCES OF FLOW SEPARATION WITHIN THIS MEAN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO TYPICAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES. WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUE ONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM. WITH UPSTREAM FLOW THE GFS COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TO ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING AND MOST OTHER MODELS. THE GFS FEEDS A LOW CONFIDENCE WRN CANADA SHRTWV INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE WEST BY WED AND IS RELATIVELY FAST/AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL-ERN STATES BY DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT. BY LATE IN THE FCST THE GEFS MEAN ALSO BECOMES RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH ITS ERN CONUS TROF. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE FAVOR HOLDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES FARTHER WWD THAN INDICATED BY THE GEFS MEAN AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO FAVORS GREATER WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLE MEANS VERSUS ONE INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF MAY BECOME TOO DEEP WITH ITS NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW BY DAY 6 FRI IN LIGHT OF SOME FCST HGT ANOMALIES REACHING 3-4 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL. THE DAYS 3-5 TUE-THU FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SOLN COMPARES WELL TO OTHER GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPLE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL-WRN STATES. DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT USE A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z ECMWF AS THE ECMWF MEAN COMPARES BETTER TO TELECONNECTIONS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. MINORITY WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF PROVIDES A LITTLE ADDED DETAIL WHILE DOWNPLAYING ITS LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTRIBUTES. MORNING PRELIM UPDATES BLEND EQUAL AMOUNTS OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS SIMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN THE SAME PATTERNS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT BLENDS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW, and I am not sure how much right now because I am having flash backs to the GEFS being too far S and E with SWFE, but there are still several ensemble members (5 or 6) showing a piece of that 1050 breaking off and bananaing into favorable position which produces a cold solution. Just something to keep an eye on. Also, I wonder if the NAM and SREFS are on to something breaking off a piece of this energy into a quick 5 inch event followed by whatever is left over with the energy out west Something to think about, very complication situation on hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JB Morning update with 4-8" of snow NYC, then a change to sleet/ice. 3-6" PHL with more ice/sleet and maybe rain down there. I don't read JB much and don't subscribe, so what is he thinking for inland areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't read JB much and don't subscribe, so what is he thinking for inland areas? Typical of JB to only mention the big cities but putting 2 and 2 together i would expect your area to be in the 4-8" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 He actually mentions a larger cone of 6 to 12" for the inland areas well N and W of the big cities...hard to believe this one does not have some rain in the big cities and probably even inland a bit out in my area. Can't have this many significant winter events without some serious ZR and even rain mixing in to make the deep snow fields granite! Typical of JB to only mention the big cities but putting 2 and 2 together i would expect your area to be in the 4-8" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS painting an ominous solution for NYC's N/W suburbs.... About 3-6 of snow then up to .5" of ice as the mid levels go above freezing but the surface stays cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't read JB much and don't subscribe, so what is he thinking for inland areas? He put the axis of heaviest snow from Springfield, MA to Springfiled, MO. (6-12") 75 miles either side of that line. Axis of heaviest would go through about Scranton on that line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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