tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 102 sub 1000 low over indy...850 line hfd to pougheepsie...frz line hpn to mpo then along i80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 108 sub 1000 low over central ohio....everyones rain with 40 in the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 108 sub 1000 low over central ohio....everyones rain with 40 in the cities Seems like a big cutter from the Euro. Let's hope it is as accurate as it was with past storm 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 114 sub 1000 low over avp....2m temps in the 50s for dc...45 for nyc and phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think we're all getting rain, the setup doesn't appear conducive for anything else, now I'm worried about the flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 120 exits off the maine coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any QPF up to NYC at 90? Seems a bit warm with the low being over Arkansas, but it is the ECM by hr 90 .01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 114 sub 1000 low over avp....2m temps in the 50s for dc...45 for nyc and phl It actually looks east of 12z here. I just can't see it torching that much unless the cold air dome is that much weaker than other models have. Still time for trends in either direction at 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 120 exits off the maine coast Jesus, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think we're all getting rain, the setup doesn't appear conducive for anything else, now I'm worried about the flooding. Five days out? You do remember this past snow also didn't have the optimal setup. The Euro is pretty bad at recognizing stubborn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seems like a big cutter from the Euro. Let's hope it is as accurate as it was with past storm 5 days out. I am not too worried yet...how many times have we seen a 990s low over Scranton? I also think the low-level cold might hold out a bit better than verbatim on the 0z ECM although I do expect the major I-95 cities to flip to rain after a few inches of snow and then some IP/ZR. Definitely setting up to be another messy situation come mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 by hr 90 .01-.1 Could it be our streak of good luck is coming to an abrupt end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jesus, lol lol well i mean it goes over boston and is just off the maine coast...either way its a torch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How much energy is left behind in the south west? O-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol well i mean it goes over boston and is just off the maine coast...either way its a torch.... So it did cut down rain amounts from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How much QPF for NYC and HPN through 102? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol well i mean it goes over boston and is just off the maine coast...either way its a torch.... How long do we torch? Hopefully not long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So it did cut down rain amounts from 12z? .75-1 of rain for us...more for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How long do we torch? Hopefully not long. a good 6-8 hrs of, its prob over 12 with temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How much QPF for NYC and HPN through 102? about .25-.35, but the 850 line is already a good bit to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How much energy is left behind in the south west? O-o it has a cutoff low over nw mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 about .25-.35, but the 850 line is already a good bit to your north. We probably get 2" of snow, then some ZR, then a bunch of rain here...not great but not the worst thing that's ever happened. This is talking about the ECM verbatim which isn't wise given how it overamplified the last storm at Day 5 and wasn't nearly cold enough with 850s given the set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 it has a cutoff low over nw mexico .... Probably going to get it stuck there forever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We probably get 2" of snow, then some ZR, then a bunch of rain here...not great but not the worst thing that's ever happened. This is talking about the ECM verbatim which isn't wise given how it overamplified the last storm at Day 5 and wasn't nearly cold enough with 850s given the set-up. yea u get about an inch or a little more of rain this run maybe a tenth or so of frz rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jesus, lol Sounds like one group of maps is wrong. Firstly, the EC track innitially is too far west for the low to logically track over Boston and off the coast of Maine. It's just a very unusual and unlikely track IMO. The mistake by the model could be one of several. Maybe the track is too far west early on. That western track would not trigger an offshore secondary especially with HP exiting the the ne coast. Or perhaps the low doesn't move over Boston but rather into Ontario--not off the Maine coast. That too would make more sense to me. If the track were further east on the other hand and the HP more locked in, we could see a secondary form off the MA coast and take over to make everybody happy. The verdict is still out. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 fwiw heres the ukmet at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 120hr (not the best graphics) shows hinting of a secondary over the NC/SC border, but it doesn't seem to want to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like one group of maps is wrong. Firstly, the EC track innitially is too far west for the low to logically track over Boston and off the coast of Maine. It's just a very unusual and unlikely track IMO. The mistake by the model could be one of several. Maybe the track is too far west early on. That western track would not trigger an offshore secondary especially with HP exiting the the ne coast. Or perhaps the low doesn't move over Boston but rather into Ontario--not off the Maine coast. That too would make more sense to me. If the track were further east on the other hand and the HP more locked in, we could see a secondary form off the MA coast and take over to make everybody happy. The verdict is still out. WX/PT The EC just seems way too warm....we struggled to go to rain in the event 2 weeks ago with a much lousier setup...we don't have much of an onshore gradient with this compared to that event so I'm just lost why the EC and GEM to an extent are warming the surface so violently. ....the other thing I notice is that the appearance at 500mb is so strung out over the Plains at 72-96 hours on all the guidance...you would sort of thing the low track would want to go more SE based on that H5 appearance...its possible there is a delay currently ongoing and if that H5 depiction is correct we may see future runs going more east or SE with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 120hr (not the best graphics) shows hinting of a secondary over the NC/SC border, but it doesn't seem to want to take over. I think the necessary adjustment that we would need to make this event another snowy one would be for the northern stream to again be faster (same adjustments that occurred subsequent to last Friday night's guidance for this past week). Then the incoming HP would be KEY once again. The exiting HP not as important and a s/w in the northern stream could set up the confluence to lock some HP and cold air in over NE and the Great Lakes/Ontario. This would have a blocking effect and a secondary that would probably take over. Maybe this is a longshot but it's not out of the realm of possibility. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 When the NAM showed the 1/11 storm at 84 hours being so far west I made a post that stated if you showed someone the NAM at 36 hours, what would you expect to see it show at 84 without someone showing or telling you...the end result was nothing like the NAM was indicating at 84 hours...sure enough that storm wound up well southeast....the same thing is appearing to me with tonight's GEM and Euro at 96...if you showed me that setup over the Plains at 96 and the East and asked me what I thought I'd see at 120 I'd probably tell you the surface low would fizzle and we'd get redevelopment off the coast as a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.