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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Seems like a big cutter from the Euro. Let's hope it is as accurate as it was with past storm 5 days out.

I am not too worried yet...how many times have we seen a 990s low over Scranton? I also think the low-level cold might hold out a bit better than verbatim on the 0z ECM although I do expect the major I-95 cities to flip to rain after a few inches of snow and then some IP/ZR. Definitely setting up to be another messy situation come mid-week.

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about .25-.35, but the 850 line is already a good bit to your north.

We probably get 2" of snow, then some ZR, then a bunch of rain here...not great but not the worst thing that's ever happened. This is talking about the ECM verbatim which isn't wise given how it overamplified the last storm at Day 5 and wasn't nearly cold enough with 850s given the set-up.

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We probably get 2" of snow, then some ZR, then a bunch of rain here...not great but not the worst thing that's ever happened. This is talking about the ECM verbatim which isn't wise given how it overamplified the last storm at Day 5 and wasn't nearly cold enough with 850s given the set-up.

yea u get about an inch or a little more of rain this run maybe a tenth or so of frz rain..

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Jesus, lol

Sounds like one group of maps is wrong. Firstly, the EC track innitially is too far west for the low to logically track over Boston and off the coast of Maine. It's just a very unusual and unlikely track IMO. The mistake by the model could be one of several. Maybe the track is too far west early on. That western track would not trigger an offshore secondary especially with HP exiting the the ne coast. Or perhaps the low doesn't move over Boston but rather into Ontario--not off the Maine coast. That too would make more sense to me. If the track were further east on the other hand and the HP more locked in, we could see a secondary form off the MA coast and take over to make everybody happy. The verdict is still out.

WX/PT

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Sounds like one group of maps is wrong. Firstly, the EC track innitially is too far west for the low to logically track over Boston and off the coast of Maine. It's just a very unusual and unlikely track IMO. The mistake by the model could be one of several. Maybe the track is too far west early on. That western track would not trigger an offshore secondary especially with HP exiting the the ne coast. Or perhaps the low doesn't move over Boston but rather into Ontario--not off the Maine coast. That too would make more sense to me. If the track were further east on the other hand and the HP more locked in, we could see a secondary form off the MA coast and take over to make everybody happy. The verdict is still out.

WX/PT

The EC just seems way too warm....we struggled to go to rain in the event 2 weeks ago with a much lousier setup...we don't have much of an onshore gradient with this compared to that event so I'm just lost why the EC and GEM to an extent are warming the surface so violently. ....the other thing I notice is that the appearance at 500mb is so strung out over the Plains at 72-96 hours on all the guidance...you would sort of thing the low track would want to go more SE based on that H5 appearance...its possible there is a delay currently ongoing and if that H5 depiction is correct we may see future runs going more east or SE with the track.

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120hr (not the best graphics) shows hinting of a secondary over the NC/SC border, but it doesn't seem to want to take over.

I think the necessary adjustment that we would need to make this event another snowy one would be for the northern stream to again be faster (same adjustments that occurred subsequent to last Friday night's guidance for this past week). Then the incoming HP would be KEY once again. The exiting HP not as important and a s/w in the northern stream could set up the confluence to lock some HP and cold air in over NE and the Great Lakes/Ontario. This would have a blocking effect and a secondary that would probably take over. Maybe this is a longshot but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

WX/PT

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When the NAM showed the 1/11 storm at 84 hours being so far west I made a post that stated if you showed someone the NAM at 36 hours, what would you expect to see it show at 84 without someone showing or telling you...the end result was nothing like the NAM was indicating at 84 hours...sure enough that storm wound up well southeast....the same thing is appearing to me with tonight's GEM and Euro at 96...if you showed me that setup over the Plains at 96 and the East and asked me what I thought I'd see at 120 I'd probably tell you the surface low would fizzle and we'd get redevelopment off the coast as a Miller B.

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