IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 STOP. It cost us $20,000 to redo our basement last year after flooding. We're not doing it again. I'm praying we don't get the typical March flooding that follows these typs of winters but its definitly worth noting, when you have a large snow pack and a very active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 When is the last time LC was right? Rossi Also, the dude is infatuated with "heat ridges". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Without the block, we will again need a well timed high pressure. It could be an overrunning event if the high is there. If not, it could easily become a SWFE with a changeover...or could cut into the lakes depending on the shortwave's amplification. Still lots of options on the table IRT the next week. earthlight....do you have any feelings as to when we may see this blocking set up shop again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Some of the mets in the Mid-Atlantic forum are thinking against the cutter as well, citing a huge PV and mass of cold air over Hudson Bay that would prohibit any sort of GLC. That's what I thought as well when I saw the GFS. If the PV comes down as modeled on the GFS, there is no way a storm would run up the OV and slam into that PV. Of course, the GFS could be wrong. Overall, with some models on the left of the region and some models on the right, I would say we are in a good spot ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Given how far west the mean trough is likely to be, I think the most likely scenario is for a primary tracking NE into the Ohio Valley with some secondary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. However, agree that just about all scenarios are feasible at this point. Without the block, we will again need a well timed high pressure. It could be an overrunning event if the high is there. If not, it could easily become a SWFE with a changeover...or could cut into the lakes depending on the shortwave's amplification. Still lots of options on the table IRT the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Given how far west the mean trough is likely to be, I think the most likely scenario is for a primary tracking NE into the Ohio Valley with some secondary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. However, agree that just about all scenarios are feasible at this point. Miller B option would be fine given the cold air we are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Given how far west the mean trough is likely to be, I think the most likely scenario is for a primary tracking NE into the Ohio Valley with some secondary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. However, agree that just about all scenarios are feasible at this point. Good point. I guess there is a strong signal for that solution, given some models showing a cutter and some showing an eastern solution. Similar to GFS solution? Up into the OV, overrunning snow, transfer to coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro anyone? lol I'm not sure if the 12z Tombo initialized. He's probably taking a break after last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro anyone? at 96 hrs there is a 1045mb hP on the canadian/montana border... closed low in the SW and energy diving down out of canada....similar look to a lot of other models so far, GFS and Euro are is very good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 How about the clippers on euro? H7 maps look decent off ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 since i dont pay for the Euro, im going off of plymouth maps.. at 120 the Euro is NOT leaving the energy back in the SW (shocking)....1044 hP on the ND/SD border...1007 lP down by Brownsville (believe it or not)...its slower than the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Based on the Euro at 96 I think its cutting west but the SW bias is biting it again...if it does go west its going west for a totally different reason than the GEM...the GEM goes hard right with the southern S/W over OK, the Euro would just be hanging the energy back too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Based on the Euro at 96 I think its cutting west but the SW bias is biting it again...if it does go west its going west for a totally different reason than the GEM...the GEM goes hard right with the southern S/W over OK, the Euro would just be hanging the energy back too much goose take a look at the 120hr maps i posted...i think it looks GREAT PNA all the way up to the Yukon is it conceivable that the PV will be able to hold the HP in place over the upper midwest? if so, we are in business.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 goose take a look at the 120hr maps i posted...i think it looks GREAT PNA all the way up to the Yukon It looks better than I'd have thought based on what 96 hours looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro appears to disagree with ukmet and ggem is more GFS like. Looks like a nice system around 150 hours with a arctic temps moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 When is the last time LC was right? Rossi About the same time DT was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro appears to disagree with ukmet and ggem is more GFS like. Looks like a nice system around 150 hours with a arctic temps moving in. The northern disturbance is just moving too fast for it to develop any sort of cutter....that big storm in the NPAC at 120 might be what forces the PNA ridge east a bit and hence the north disturbance rips east...the Euro is dangerously close to cutting but again I think the big Plains high is going to make it very hard for any sort of cutter as it sort of did on this past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 and hr 144...not as good as I would have thought....but a 1003 down that far south, with HP is a real good spot is just tasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The northern disturbance is just moving too fast for it to develop any sort of cutter....that big storm in the NPAC at 120 might be what forces the PNA ridge east a bit and hence the north disturbance rips east...the Euro is dangerously close to cutting but again I think the big Plains high is going to make it very hard for any sort of cutter as it sort of did on this past event. SG, do you see a possible Miller B with this? or a Gulf Low all the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes, it also has a beautiful banana high building in, similar to many of the GEFS. Seems to be no shortgage of HP's this year. Euro looks pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 per DT on facebook: "***ALERT*** THURS 12Z EURO has ANOTHER major snowstorm for Northern VA/ DC to PHL to NYC and NJ to CT and BOS FEB 2 ****" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SG, do you see a possible Miller B with this? or a Gulf Low all the way? I agree with what jconsor said, the most likely scenario is a cutter or semi-cutter that tracks maybe OK ENE to maybe Cincinatti and then a secondary pops....I don't think we can get a cutter and the more this thing is delayed (which has been the seasonal trend ) the less chance there is...a Miller A also seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 at hr 168 is kinda races the LP NE from the position it was at at hr144...product of the downstream blacking (lack there of) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 at hr 168 is kinda races the LP NE from the position it was at at hr144...product of the downstream blacking (lack there of) no block, no H5 capture, fast nina flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I agree with what jconsor said, the most likely scenario is a cutter or semi-cutter that tracks maybe OK ENE to maybe Cincinatti and then a secondary pops....I don't think we can get a cutter and the more this thing is delayed (which has been the seasonal trend ) the less chance there is...a Miller A also seems unlikely. the transfer option is a better option...those storms tend to last longer....you get the overrunning precip then the coastal precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 would love to know what happens on the euro between 144 and 168...anyone have access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 would love to know what happens on the euro between 144 and 168...anyone have access? The Trials is posting above. You dont see it? LOL. Its a nice overrunning event like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The Trials is posting above. You dont see it? LOL. Its a nice overrunning event like the GFS. Looks like the odds are good we get some wintry precip next week. That's all we can ask for-- especially the day after a foot and a half snowfall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 the transfer option is a better option...those storms tend to last longer....you get the overrunning precip then the coastal precip... Depends on the secondary development. Often-times those storms are faster because the secondary moves out to the ne taking the moisture with it. It does not always work the way last night did. One thing we have going for us this year with the coastal lows is above normal SSTs that do favor overintensification and in that case, heavy snow lasts longer. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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