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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Without the block, we will again need a well timed high pressure. It could be an overrunning event if the high is there. If not, it could easily become a SWFE with a changeover...or could cut into the lakes depending on the shortwave's amplification.

Still lots of options on the table IRT the next week.

earthlight....do you have any feelings as to when we may see this blocking set up shop again?

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Some of the mets in the Mid-Atlantic forum are thinking against the cutter as well, citing a huge PV and mass of cold air over Hudson Bay that would prohibit any sort of GLC.

That's what I thought as well when I saw the GFS. If the PV comes down as modeled on the GFS, there is no way a storm would run up the OV and slam into that PV. Of course, the GFS could be wrong. Overall, with some models on the left of the region and some models on the right, I would say we are in a good spot ATTM.

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Given how far west the mean trough is likely to be, I think the most likely scenario is for a primary tracking NE into the Ohio Valley with some secondary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. However, agree that just about all scenarios are feasible at this point.

Without the block, we will again need a well timed high pressure. It could be an overrunning event if the high is there. If not, it could easily become a SWFE with a changeover...or could cut into the lakes depending on the shortwave's amplification.

Still lots of options on the table IRT the next week.

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Given how far west the mean trough is likely to be, I think the most likely scenario is for a primary tracking NE into the Ohio Valley with some secondary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. However, agree that just about all scenarios are feasible at this point.

Miller B option would be fine given the cold air we are getting.

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Given how far west the mean trough is likely to be, I think the most likely scenario is for a primary tracking NE into the Ohio Valley with some secondary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. However, agree that just about all scenarios are feasible at this point.

Good point. I guess there is a strong signal for that solution, given some models showing a cutter and some showing an eastern solution. Similar to GFS solution? Up into the OV, overrunning snow, transfer to coast?

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110127182425.gifsince i dont pay for the Euro, im going off of plymouth maps..

at 120 the Euro is NOT leaving the energy back in the SW (shocking)....1044 hP on the ND/SD border...1007 lP down by Brownsville (believe it or not)...its slower than the GEM

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Based on the Euro at 96 I think its cutting west but the SW bias is biting it again...if it does go west its going west for a totally different reason than the GEM...the GEM goes hard right with the southern S/W over OK, the Euro would just be hanging the energy back too much

goose take a look at the 120hr maps i posted...i think it looks GREAT

PNA all the way up to the Yukon

is it conceivable that the PV will be able to hold the HP in place over the upper midwest? if so, we are in business....

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Euro appears to disagree with ukmet and ggem is more GFS like. Looks like a nice system around 150 hours with a arctic temps moving in.

The northern disturbance is just moving too fast for it to develop any sort of cutter....that big storm in the NPAC at 120 might be what forces the PNA ridge east a bit and hence the north disturbance rips east...the Euro is dangerously close to cutting but again I think the big Plains high is going to make it very hard for any sort of cutter as it sort of did on this past event.

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The northern disturbance is just moving too fast for it to develop any sort of cutter....that big storm in the NPAC at 120 might be what forces the PNA ridge east a bit and hence the north disturbance rips east...the Euro is dangerously close to cutting but again I think the big Plains high is going to make it very hard for any sort of cutter as it sort of did on this past event.

SG, do you see a possible Miller B with this? or a Gulf Low all the way?

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SG, do you see a possible Miller B with this? or a Gulf Low all the way?

I agree with what jconsor said, the most likely scenario is a cutter or semi-cutter that tracks maybe OK ENE to maybe Cincinatti and then a secondary pops....I don't think we can get a cutter and the more this thing is delayed (which has been the seasonal trend ) the less chance there is...a Miller A also seems unlikely.

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I agree with what jconsor said, the most likely scenario is a cutter or semi-cutter that tracks maybe OK ENE to maybe Cincinatti and then a secondary pops....I don't think we can get a cutter and the more this thing is delayed (which has been the seasonal trend ) the less chance there is...a Miller A also seems unlikely.

the transfer option is a better option...those storms tend to last longer....you get the overrunning precip then the coastal precip...

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The Trials is posting above. You dont see it? LOL.

Its a nice overrunning event like the GFS.

Looks like the odds are good we get some wintry precip next week. That's all we can ask for-- especially the day after a foot and a half snowfall lol.

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the transfer option is a better option...those storms tend to last longer....you get the overrunning precip then the coastal precip...

Depends on the secondary development. Often-times those storms are faster because the secondary moves out to the ne taking the moisture with it. It does not always work the way last night did. One thing we have going for us this year with the coastal lows is above normal SSTs that do favor overintensification and in that case, heavy snow lasts longer.

WX/PT

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