jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Holy hell what a mess. 4" of snow on the front end, to about 4" of sleet, followed by 9" of snow. Formed a glacier that lasted here until late March in piles. Temps stuck in the teens/low 20s that whole storm -- KAVP had 12*F and sleet at one point. Then you had temps plunging into the single digits afterwards. That's about what we had in State College as well. That was the thickest, heaviest foot of snow/slop I've ever seen. And we didn't even have freezing rain-just driving, torrential sleet sandwiched in between lots of snow. It soon after froze into a cement that you couldn't even move with a wrecking ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The one good thing about this thing tracking west is that its more likely we'll get an event from the storm at 160-180 hours...if the first storm ultimately goes more SE I think the 2nd event is a miss....so the choice might be 2 inches, then sleet/ZR and then another storm...or 5-8 inches mostly snow, then no 2nd event. since, you are putting that out there. I'll take option A.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The biggest danger in this situation is roof collapses if there is a change over to rain after all the previous snow which hasn't melted -add several inches to that and then ice and heavy rain - -plus these cloudy days leading up to the event slows down the melting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs ens mean supports the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes, if what is depicted verifies. I also doubt 3 inches of qpf anywhere in New Jersey verifies from this, not even half that is likely to verify. Flooding won't really take place unless temps warm up into the upper 30s and 40s with this. The snow usually will just absorb the rain and slush unless it gets that warm, at which point it all melts and that plus whatever rain flows into the rivers. Most of our snow can take some poundage since there was sleet and even some freezing rain in there for a while near the coast. The liquid water equivalent of my snow has to be well over 2" at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEFS looks to be a little further south of the OP...goes from EKY to 108 to off the SENJ coast at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEFS looks to be a little further south of the OP...goes from EKY to 108 to off the SENJ coast at 120. given the setup and climatology and this winters climatology so far - the GEFS ens seem most reasonable at this point ........redevelopment near the Mason Dixon Line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs ens mean supports the operational. yeah maybe a earlier transfer, quick look at the meaningless 850's at this point in time for nyc this run, they stay pretty cold through out the whole storm. Amazing how we might get decent snows in this far from stellar pattern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs ens mean supports the operational. GFS depiction blows. Looks like 0.75" of snow/sleet/fr. rain mix followed be 0.5" of rain. I'd rather have this cut up through wisconsin, give us a day or two in the 40s, 0.25" of rain with the cold front, and then the cold air afterward. UKMET looks the same trackwise for the 0z run as the GFS, at least to my eyes. GGEM with a boatload of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z GGEM is typical, with a lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z GGEM is typical, with a lakes cutter which basically is impossible with the 1040 highs stretched across the northern tier...... didn't see the GGEM - where the highs weaker and in a position on that model to allow a lakes cutter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 which basically is impossible with the 1040 highs stretched across the northern tier...... didn't see the GGEM - where the highs weaker and in a position on that model to allow a lakes cutter ? It had a 1026 high over Maine. Probably too weak to affect things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z GGEM is typical, with a lakes cutter The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 which basically is impossible with the 1040 highs stretched across the northern tier...... didn't see the GGEM - where the highs weaker and in a position on that model to allow a lakes cutter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable. It's much further north than the GFS though, isn't it? The 0z GFS ceased northern movement in SEOH and jumped it off the coast. GGEM takes it to NWPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable. my point is basically referring to how this past weeks event was a lakes cutter until 2 days before the event. GGEM always runs warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 which basically is impossible with the 1040 highs stretched across the northern tier...... didn't see the GGEM - where the highs weaker and in a position on that model to allow a lakes cutter ? Look at the 500mb depiction. If it shows a consolidated bundle of energy and a sharp trough, it will come north and cut-guaranteed, to an extent, until the confluence or block to the north force it to redevelop and head east. The ONLY thing saving us is that Hudson Bay/Quebec PV. If that weakens in future runs, the confluence will weaken significantly and be further north, which will equal a major lake cutter and torch. On the other hand, if it strengthens or lurches south, we have a more suppressed track due to the storm being forced to go around it at a certain point. Also, the less consolidated and strung out the storm is, the better. The less sharp the trough, the less the low will be able to cut. Overrunning/swfe in strong Ninas are always very dangerous, but can overproduce if the cold air dome in place is strong enough. We saw that on 2/22/08 and to a lesser extent in Dec 2008. It's about how progressive the storm can be without time for it to amplify and cut, and the amount of resistance the storm faces in Canada in the form of confluence and cold high pressure. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously at all since it flopped all over the place with our last couple of storms. I would take the Euro more seriously and hopefully it shifts back south relatively soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 my point is basically referring to how this past weeks event was a lakes cutter until 2 days before the event. GGEM always runs warm. The ridge/trough setup over the W US is pretty depressing. The energy that ejects out of there needs to haul ass and not phase in day 3 or we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable. Seriously-its warm bias presenting itself again? There's no way a low in that position can be anything but snow or maybe sleet with that cold an airmass in place prior. Maybe when it gets to NW PA or Ohio it's different but hopefully by then it's ending and the dryslot is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The ridge/trough setup over the W US is pretty depressing. The energy that ejects out of there needs to haul ass and not phase in day 3 or we're in trouble. Great post. We have no business experiencing anything but a torch with a ridge off the West Coast like that. The Quebec PV is saving us big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seriously-its warm bias presenting itself again? There's no way a low in that position can be anything but snow or maybe sleet with that cold an airmass in place prior. Maybe when it gets to NW PA or Ohio it's different but hopefully by then it's ending and the dryslot is near. The GEM has a warm bias when the NAO is raging negative...when the NAO is positive or negative east based it goes into overdrive mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just something to chew on--the DGEX, which also warmed the H85 temperatures up a good bit (like every other model) was still enough to provide a warning criteria event. I'm sure most people won't complain in adding 6+" of snow to their seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 alright 0z euro has init Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 through hr 54 on the euro only nocticeable changes are the northern stream isnt dropping in like the 12z euro had....also the enrgy is closed off somewhat... the hgts are also a little lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 so far through 66hrs the 850s and freeze lines are warmer than 12z.... its losing the big highs in the northeast...12z had plus 1040 now its an area of plus 1036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 84 has a sub 1008 low in eastern tx...some overunning snows in dc and phl...850s south of dc...frz line east of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hear the high pressure over Montana is approaching 1060mb on the 0z ECM...that's incredible if I'm reading right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 1004 low over central ark....overunning snow still over phl...dc is now rain....850s up to balt frz line i95 to m/d line then it goes along the m/d border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 1004 low over central ark....overunning snow still over phl...dc is now rain....850s up to balt frz line i95 to m/d line then it goes along the m/d border Any QPF up to NYC at 90? Seems a bit warm with the low being over Arkansas, but it is the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 96 has a sub 1000 low over the boot of missouri ...850 line holmdel to abe then along i 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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