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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Holy hell what a mess.

4" of snow on the front end, to about 4" of sleet, followed by 9" of snow. Formed a glacier that lasted here until late March in piles.

Temps stuck in the teens/low 20s that whole storm -- KAVP had 12*F and sleet at one point.

Then you had temps plunging into the single digits afterwards.

That's about what we had in State College as well. That was the thickest, heaviest foot of snow/slop I've ever seen. And we didn't even have freezing rain-just driving, torrential sleet sandwiched in between lots of snow. It soon after froze into a cement that you couldn't even move with a wrecking ball.

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The one good thing about this thing tracking west is that its more likely we'll get an event from the storm at 160-180 hours...if the first storm ultimately goes more SE I think the 2nd event is a miss....so the choice might be 2 inches, then sleet/ZR and then another storm...or 5-8 inches mostly snow, then no 2nd event.

since, you are putting that out there. I'll take option A....

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The biggest danger in this situation is roof collapses if there is a change over to rain after all the previous snow which hasn't melted -add several inches to that and then ice and heavy rain - -plus these cloudy days leading up to the event slows down the melting....

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Yes, if what is depicted verifies. I also doubt 3 inches of qpf anywhere in New Jersey verifies from this, not even half that is likely to verify.

Flooding won't really take place unless temps warm up into the upper 30s and 40s with this. The snow usually will just absorb the rain and slush unless it gets that warm, at which point it all melts and that plus whatever rain flows into the rivers. Most of our snow can take some poundage since there was sleet and even some freezing rain in there for a while near the coast. The liquid water equivalent of my snow has to be well over 2" at this time.

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GEFS looks to be a little further south of the OP...goes from EKY to 108 to off the SENJ coast at 120.

given the setup and climatology and this winters climatology so far - the GEFS ens seem most reasonable at this point ........redevelopment near the Mason Dixon Line....

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gfs ens mean supports the operational.

yeah maybe a earlier transfer, quick look at the meaningless 850's at this point in time for nyc this run, they stay pretty cold through out the whole storm. Amazing how we might get decent snows in this far from stellar pattern right now.

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gfs ens mean supports the operational.

GFS depiction blows. Looks like 0.75" of snow/sleet/fr. rain mix followed be 0.5" of rain. I'd rather have this cut up through wisconsin, give us a day or two in the 40s, 0.25" of rain with the cold front, and then the cold air afterward.

UKMET looks the same trackwise for the 0z run as the GFS, at least to my eyes.

GGEM with a boatload of rain...

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00z GGEM is typical, with a lakes cutter

which basically is impossible with the 1040 highs stretched across the northern tier...... didn't see the GGEM - where the highs weaker and in a position on that model to allow a lakes cutter ?

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The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable.

It's much further north than the GFS though, isn't it? The 0z GFS ceased northern movement in SEOH and jumped it off the coast.

GGEM takes it to NWPA.

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The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable.

my point is basically referring to how this past weeks event was a lakes cutter until 2 days before the event. GGEM always runs warm.

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which basically is impossible with the 1040 highs stretched across the northern tier...... didn't see the GGEM - where the highs weaker and in a position on that model to allow a lakes cutter ?

Look at the 500mb depiction. If it shows a consolidated bundle of energy and a sharp trough, it will come north and cut-guaranteed, to an extent, until the confluence or block to the north force it to redevelop and head east. The ONLY thing saving us is that Hudson Bay/Quebec PV. If that weakens in future runs, the confluence will weaken significantly and be further north, which will equal a major lake cutter and torch. On the other hand, if it strengthens or lurches south, we have a more suppressed track due to the storm being forced to go around it at a certain point. Also, the less consolidated and strung out the storm is, the better. The less sharp the trough, the less the low will be able to cut.

Overrunning/swfe in strong Ninas are always very dangerous, but can overproduce if the cold air dome in place is strong enough. We saw that on 2/22/08 and to a lesser extent in Dec 2008. It's about how progressive the storm can be without time for it to amplify and cut, and the amount of resistance the storm faces in Canada in the form of confluence and cold high pressure. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously at all since it flopped all over the place with our last couple of storms. I would take the Euro more seriously and hopefully it shifts back south relatively soon.

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The GEM's track isn't horribly off from the GFS, its just simply terrible at deciphering ptypes...the fact the GEM has rain at 105-108 hours with the low over KY is laughable.

Seriously-its warm bias presenting itself again?

There's no way a low in that position can be anything but snow or maybe sleet with that cold an airmass in place prior. Maybe when it gets to NW PA or Ohio it's different but hopefully by then it's ending and the dryslot is near.

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Seriously-its warm bias presenting itself again?

There's no way a low in that position can be anything but snow or maybe sleet with that cold an airmass in place prior. Maybe when it gets to NW PA or Ohio it's different but hopefully by then it's ending and the dryslot is near.

The GEM has a warm bias when the NAO is raging negative...when the NAO is positive or negative east based it goes into overdrive mode.

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