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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Yet everybody keeps saying how wonderful it is. I'm sorry but NAM= Never Accurate Model.

Even the 06z NAM back on Wednesday was way to slow with the WAA snow ripping northward across the area in the morning. I was amazed looking at radar imagery and then looking at the 06z NAM. It had no clue.

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Call out to Long Island's top best kept secret meteorologist PT....any thoughts on how things will evolve next week considering we are at least 4-5 days away? Love to hear your analysis on how things stand and how they will evolve.

In order of likelihood at this time and with low confidence: 1) Tuesday light snow then Wednesday snow, freezing rain and sleet heavy at times, 2) Tuesday light snow then Wednesday snow heavy at times, 3) Tuesday light snow then Wednesday mixed precip changing to rain heavy at times with lots of flooding. I'd like to let the 00Z GFS run finish and see a little more of the late night guidance before commenting further.

WX/PT

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Even the 06z NAM back on Wednesday was way to slow with the WAA snow ripping northward across the area in the morning. I was amazed looking at radar imagery and then looking at the 06z NAM. It had no clue.

To be fair, the GFS wasn't so good with that either. That just kind of snuck up on everybody. It was pretty obvious on radar, however.

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But the primary seems to want to keep going further north with less redevelopment....which was what the EURO had right?

It is not the EURO, but it is trending closer.

And what makes you think the Euro will be right? I will take the GFS anyday this year over the Euro.

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I just hope we don't have another ridiculous coastal front torch up into the 40s like we had last week. That'll wipe out a ton of snow and create huge flooding problems at the same time. If it rains at 35 degrees, it's okay by me. I still think also that we get a lot on the front end before we get rain (if we get rain, there's still plenty of time for this to trend back less amplified).

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