White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 She did a good job. Next week looks very messy. We'll see how it plays out. She did a great job, her numbers matched up perfectly with what I came up with at certain intervals of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0Z GFS showing anything good tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0Z GFS showing anything good tonight? It's only out to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thanks Greg I'll pass it on to her! Thanks for your texts too Paul She did a great job, her numbers matched up perfectly with what I came up with at certain intervals of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some overrunning precip gets into the area at 84 hours on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Call out to Long Island's top best kept secret meteorologist PT....any thoughts on how things will evolve next week considering we are at least 4-5 days away? Love to hear your analysis on how things stand and how they will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM has massive, behemoth cutter written all over it. Luckily it's the NAM which is often wrong at this stage and overamplified. It has even been wrong in the short term. Its just awful this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It has even been wrong in the short term. Its just awful this winter. Yet everybody keeps saying how wonderful it is. I'm sorry but NAM= Never Accurate Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's and surface temps are right over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is a monster icestorm northwest of the new york city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yet everybody keeps saying how wonderful it is. I'm sorry but NAM= Never Accurate Model. Even the 06z NAM back on Wednesday was way to slow with the WAA snow ripping northward across the area in the morning. I was amazed looking at radar imagery and then looking at the 06z NAM. It had no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Call out to Long Island's top best kept secret meteorologist PT....any thoughts on how things will evolve next week considering we are at least 4-5 days away? Love to hear your analysis on how things stand and how they will evolve. In order of likelihood at this time and with low confidence: 1) Tuesday light snow then Wednesday snow, freezing rain and sleet heavy at times, 2) Tuesday light snow then Wednesday snow heavy at times, 3) Tuesday light snow then Wednesday mixed precip changing to rain heavy at times with lots of flooding. I'd like to let the 00Z GFS run finish and see a little more of the late night guidance before commenting further. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's are warm for NYC but the surface is freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Even the 06z NAM back on Wednesday was way to slow with the WAA snow ripping northward across the area in the morning. I was amazed looking at radar imagery and then looking at the 06z NAM. It had no clue. To be fair, the GFS wasn't so good with that either. That just kind of snuck up on everybody. It was pretty obvious on radar, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's are warm for NYC but the surface is freezing. rain bullseye right over PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's are warm for NYC but the surface is freezing. Might have to transfer faster to give us less of an ice to possibly rain situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS has 4"-7" of front end for NYC. Then a slop to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nasty icestorm for NYC on this run. Surface is below freezing throughout the whole event while the 850's are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another step to the EURO on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nasty icestorm for NYC on this run. Surface is below freezing throughout the whole event while the 850's are warm. 850's warm at hour 114. Before that over .50" of qpf had fallen. Most of it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's warm at hour 114. Before that over .50" of qpf had fallen. Most of it snow. 850's are warm but the surface is really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another step to the EURO on the 0z. Well if that's true then we're going to have to discuss flooding because we would def get a lot of flooding with a warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LV is snow to sleet to maybe some FRZA, but a mess with nearly 1.25" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another step to the EURO on the 0z. its no where close to the euro...the 850s and what not maybe...but the track is no where near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's are warm but the surface is really cold. Philly looks to be just warm enough for snow to rain, but just a little NW and it's ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850's are warm but the surface is really cold. Again, That precip has already fallen. So most of that is snow. Probably warms around hour 112 or so. Anything after that is ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 To be fair, the GFS wasn't so good with that either. That just kind of snuck up on everybody. It was pretty obvious on radar, however. Well yeah, but the NAM's timing has been way to slow for awhile now with nearly every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 its no where close to the euro...the 850s and what not maybe...but the track is no where near it. But the primary seems to want to keep going further north with less redevelopment....which was what the EURO had right? It is not the EURO, but it is trending closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 But the primary seems to want to keep going further north with less redevelopment....which was what the EURO had right? It is not the EURO, but it is trending closer. And what makes you think the Euro will be right? I will take the GFS anyday this year over the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just hope we don't have another ridiculous coastal front torch up into the 40s like we had last week. That'll wipe out a ton of snow and create huge flooding problems at the same time. If it rains at 35 degrees, it's okay by me. I still think also that we get a lot on the front end before we get rain (if we get rain, there's still plenty of time for this to trend back less amplified). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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