SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why busted SG? That was a great storm-- underforecasted, but great Busted in that it would be more of a PL/FZRA producer than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Busted in that it would be more of a PL/FZRA producer than snow Ah, I think that one was forecasted to changeover more quickly, but instead we got thundersnow and some of the heaviest snowfall rates Ive seen-- well before this winter lol. The good thing about that one was it happened in the middle of the day! You dont think this one can bust like that and give us a quick downburst of heavy snow like that before any mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe this can be a juicier 2/22/08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why we want the block/-NAO with this event...this one is around number 8 in the analogs...you can tell it wanted to go well west but due to the -NAO clearly seen in SE Canada it was forced more south and redevelped far enough south that most people north of say a TTN-New Brunswick line were mostly snow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us1219.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe this can be a juicier 2/22/08? Nice analog man-- that was another overproducing SWFE for us-- I liked that a lot better than Dec 2008. We dont want you coming home to a driving rainstorm. BTW you're also missing a nice little clipper tonight and tomorrow-- in addition to all the thunderstuff and amazing storm you missed while in boring Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why we want the block/-NAO with this event...this one is around number 8 in the analogs...you can tell it wanted to go well west but due to the -NAO clearly seen in SE Canada it was forced more south and redevelped far enough south that most people north of say a TTN-New Brunswick line were mostly snow. http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us1219.php The thing is though, in 1993-94 we had a ragingly positive NAO and still had some really nice snowstorms. I agree with you, SG, that it would be nice to have a -NAO but it isnt a requirement for our latitude like it is for the lower MA. I believe the NAO was positive for Feb 03 (or maybe neg going pos?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If the energy consolidates too much, we are screwed. We need a weaker wave to come out as a piece. The moisture will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice analog man-- that was another overproducing SWFE for us-- I liked that a lot better than Dec 2008. We dont want you coming home to a driving rainstorm. BTW you're also missing a nice little clipper tonight and tomorrow-- in addition to all the thunderstuff and amazing storm you missed while in boring Seattle I just got home today actually! Worst jet lag of my life. I am a mess. But it looks beautiful outside. After class, I was walking outside and it started to snow again...I just started to laugh. And lol, the weather in Seattle was terrible. 40s and cloudy/foggy. There were very, very occasional peaks of sun. The trip was amazing, though. The waterfront is beautiful. The trip to Seattle was still worth it to me...networking and hanging out with your closest friends in a pretty cool city was a great time. I was complaining a lot, though, about missing the storm I didn't have time to post on the forum at all, but I did talk to earthlight a lot about it...I was very aware of what was going on with the models and the storm itself. And yeah, that storm is definitely an overachiever, and given this winter, an overachiever is certainly a possibility. I could definitely see this event as one that has loads of moisture racing way out ahead of the low, so there is a THUMP of snow before the mid-levels warm. Lots of WAA into a very cold airmass will do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If the energy consolidates too much, we are screwed. We need a weaker wave to come out as a piece. The moisture will come. faster is better... front running energy would help, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If the energy consolidates too much, we are screwed. We need a weaker wave to come out as a piece. The moisture will come. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just got home today actually! Worst jet lag of my life. I am a mess. But it looks beautiful outside. After class, I was walking outside and it started to snow again...I just started to laugh. And lol, the weather in Seattle was terrible. 40s and cloudy/foggy. There were very, very occasional peaks of sun. The trip was amazing, though. The waterfront is beautiful. The trip to Seattle was still worth it to me...networking and hanging out with your closest friends in a pretty cool city was a great time. I was complaining a lot, though, about missing the storm I didn't have time to post on the forum at all, but I did talk to earthlight a lot about it...I was very aware of what was going on with the models and the storm itself. And yeah, that storm is definitely an overachiever, and given this winter, an overachiever is certainly a possibility. I could definitely see this event as one that has loads of moisture racing way out ahead of the low, so there is a THUMP of snow before the mid-levels warm. Lots of WAA into a very cold airmass will do that... Why didnt they hold the meeting in New York? Maybe they were worried about people having too much fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why didnt they hold the meeting in New York? Maybe they were worried about people having too much fun Probably money, to be honest. Though it's not like this conference was exactly cheap. It's actually going to be in New Orleans next year, so people will be having plenty of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Probably money, to be honest. Though it's not like this conference was exactly cheap. It's actually going to be in New Orleans next year, so people will be having plenty of fun. Haha, Seattle is a gorgeous place, just not this time of year in terms of the weather Next year in NO eh? I might want to go there. We have about half an inch of snow; I think Old Man Winter wanted to welcome you home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 End of the range so not likely worth all that much, but the SREFs are showing some hints of significant running snows while the surface low is still back in Texas 24 hour QPF mean, ending 87 hours Odds of 6 hour precip being greater than .25, a number of members show heavy overrunning developing The 700mb RH map is quite impressive as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For this storm I'm actually hoping we do NOT get much snow here. I'm going to Vegas this week, coming back Friday, so I hope I won't be stuck there. Plus I'd hate to miss a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For this storm I'm actually hoping we do NOT get much snow here. I'm going to Vegas this week, coming back Friday, so I hope I won't be stuck there. Plus I'd hate to miss a big storm. God forbid you got stuck in Vegas LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Native Americans called fog in winter the" snow eater". The following morning there was a dense fog that had formed over the snow pack. I was driving on the Clearview that morning where it cuts through a wooded area and there was a thick fog that appeared out of nowhere. What a sloppy nasty day that was. Please none of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 anyone want to take a stab at what the nam would show? It looks like its ejecting all the enrgy out a lot faster compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For this storm I'm actually hoping we do NOT get much snow here. I'm going to Vegas this week, coming back Friday, so I hope I won't be stuck there. Plus I'd hate to miss a big storm. I hope you lose all your money and get diverted to Reno on the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Because I'm in Vegas this week, expect this to be the biggest snowstorm of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't get why the NAM doesn't push down those 850's at all. It's damn warm already at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't get why the NAM doesn't push down those 850's at all. It's damn warm already at 78. i think its cause the nam is bringing all the energy out and phasing it with the northern stream and pumping the se ridge big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just got back from Ft Lauderdale from a mtg and could not get down my driveway.....the plow guy didn't make a wide enough path for the car to fit thru...but just mountains of snow across the area. The big question now is where are we gonna pile the next one?? Speaking of that...I ran the Wxsim program against the 18z data for the NW Philly Burbs It has light snow arriving during the day Tuesday with maybe a inch by late night. Snow gets underway in earnest around midnight with a transition/mix with IP by late morning. It indicates 6 to 8" of snow and sleet and then around .25" of ZR to top it off. Temps never rise above 30 during the event. by the way Very Light Snow here tonight Temp 27.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM has massive, behemoth cutter written all over it. Luckily it's the NAM which is often wrong at this stage and overamplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just got back from Ft Lauderdale from a mtg and could not get down my driveway.....the plow guy didn't make a wide enough path for the car to fit thru...but just mountains of snow across the area. The big question now is where are we gonna pile the next one?? Speaking of that...I ran the Wxsim program against the 18z data for the NW Philly Burbs It has light snow arriving during the day Tuesday with maybe a inch by late night. Snow gets underway in earnest around midnight with a transition/mix with IP by late morning. It indicates 6 to 8" of snow and sleet and then around .25" of ZR to top it off. Temps never rise above 30 during the event. by the way Very Light Snow here tonight Temp 27.5 Welcome back. Seems like a very possible outcome next week. Oh, you missed a hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know...I was stuck at the airport for part 1 and read the reports of #2....my wife carried out the measuring in my absence! She likes snow...but announced tonight that she is tired and wants the snow to stop. Something tells me she won't be getting her wish this week! Paul Welcome back. Seems like a very possible outcome next week. Oh, you missed a hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know...I was stuck at the airport for part 1 and read the reports of #2....my wife carried out the measuring in my absence! She likes snow...but announced tonight that she is tired and wants the snow to stop. Something tells me she won't be getting her wish this week! Paul She did a good job. Next week looks very messy. We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At this point it is very differcult to predict this upcomming event. Remember last Wednesday's storm was going to be a warm rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Even if this upcoming week's storm is "warm" would there be an appreciable front end thump for NYC/LI? Has NYC/LI ever survived a lakes cutter as all snow without a secondary forming along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Even if this upcoming week's storm is "warm" would there be an appreciable front end thump for NYC/LI? Has NYC/LI ever survived a lakes cutter as all snow without a secondary forming along the coast? All snow, probably not. All frozen, that's easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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