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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Busted in that it would be more of a PL/FZRA producer than snow

Ah, I think that one was forecasted to changeover more quickly, but instead we got thundersnow and some of the heaviest snowfall rates Ive seen-- well before this winter lol. The good thing about that one was it happened in the middle of the day! :thumbsup:

You dont think this one can bust like that and give us a quick downburst of heavy snow like that before any mixing?

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Why we want the block/-NAO with this event...this one is around number 8 in the analogs...you can tell it wanted to go well west but due to the -NAO clearly seen in SE Canada it was forced more south and redevelped far enough south that most people north of say a TTN-New Brunswick line were mostly snow.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us1219.php

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Maybe this can be a juicier 2/22/08?

Nice analog man-- that was another overproducing SWFE for us-- I liked that a lot better than Dec 2008. We dont want you coming home to a driving rainstorm.

BTW you're also missing a nice little clipper tonight and tomorrow-- in addition to all the thunderstuff and amazing storm you missed while in boring Seattle :P

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Why we want the block/-NAO with this event...this one is around number 8 in the analogs...you can tell it wanted to go well west but due to the -NAO clearly seen in SE Canada it was forced more south and redevelped far enough south that most people north of say a TTN-New Brunswick line were mostly snow.

http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us1219.php

The thing is though, in 1993-94 we had a ragingly positive NAO and still had some really nice snowstorms. I agree with you, SG, that it would be nice to have a -NAO but it isnt a requirement for our latitude like it is for the lower MA. I believe the NAO was positive for Feb 03 (or maybe neg going pos?)

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Nice analog man-- that was another overproducing SWFE for us-- I liked that a lot better than Dec 2008. We dont want you coming home to a driving rainstorm.

BTW you're also missing a nice little clipper tonight and tomorrow-- in addition to all the thunderstuff and amazing storm you missed while in boring Seattle :P

I just got home today actually! Worst jet lag of my life. I am a mess. But it looks beautiful outside. After class, I was walking outside and it started to snow again...I just started to laugh.

And lol, the weather in Seattle was terrible. 40s and cloudy/foggy. There were very, very occasional peaks of sun. The trip was amazing, though. The waterfront is beautiful.

The trip to Seattle was still worth it to me...networking and hanging out with your closest friends in a pretty cool city was a great time. I was complaining a lot, though, about missing the storm :P I didn't have time to post on the forum at all, but I did talk to earthlight a lot about it...I was very aware of what was going on with the models and the storm itself.

And yeah, that storm is definitely an overachiever, and given this winter, an overachiever is certainly a possibility. I could definitely see this event as one that has loads of moisture racing way out ahead of the low, so there is a THUMP of snow before the mid-levels warm. Lots of WAA into a very cold airmass will do that...

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I just got home today actually! Worst jet lag of my life. I am a mess. But it looks beautiful outside. After class, I was walking outside and it started to snow again...I just started to laugh.

And lol, the weather in Seattle was terrible. 40s and cloudy/foggy. There were very, very occasional peaks of sun. The trip was amazing, though. The waterfront is beautiful.

The trip to Seattle was still worth it to me...networking and hanging out with your closest friends in a pretty cool city was a great time. I was complaining a lot, though, about missing the storm :P I didn't have time to post on the forum at all, but I did talk to earthlight a lot about it...I was very aware of what was going on with the models and the storm itself.

And yeah, that storm is definitely an overachiever, and given this winter, an overachiever is certainly a possibility. I could definitely see this event as one that has loads of moisture racing way out ahead of the low, so there is a THUMP of snow before the mid-levels warm. Lots of WAA into a very cold airmass will do that...

Why didnt they hold the meeting in New York? Maybe they were worried about people having too much fun :P

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Probably money, to be honest. Though it's not like this conference was exactly cheap. It's actually going to be in New Orleans next year, so people will be having plenty of fun. :lol:

Haha, Seattle is a gorgeous place, just not this time of year in terms of the weather :P Next year in NO eh? I might want to go there.

We have about half an inch of snow; I think Old Man Winter wanted to welcome you home.

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End of the range so not likely worth all that much, but the SREFs are showing some hints of significant running snows while the surface low is still back in Texas

24 hour QPF mean, ending 87 hours

sref_x24_087s.gif

Odds of 6 hour precip being greater than .25, a number of members show heavy overrunning developing

sref_zp6_087s.gif

The 700mb RH map is quite impressive as well

sref_70r_087s.gif

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Native Americans called fog in winter the" snow eater".

The following morning there was a dense fog that had formed over the snow pack. I was driving on the Clearview that morning where it cuts through a wooded area and there was a thick fog that appeared out of nowhere. What a sloppy nasty day that was. Please none of that.

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Just got back from Ft Lauderdale from a mtg and could not get down my driveway.....the plow guy didn't make a wide enough path for the car to fit thru...but just mountains of snow across the area. The big question now is where are we gonna pile the next one??

Speaking of that...I ran the Wxsim program against the 18z data for the NW Philly Burbs

It has light snow arriving during the day Tuesday with maybe a inch by late night. Snow gets underway in earnest around midnight with a transition/mix with IP by late morning. It indicates 6 to 8" of snow and sleet and then around .25" of ZR to top it off. Temps never rise above 30 during the event.

by the way

Very Light Snow here tonight

Temp 27.5

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Just got back from Ft Lauderdale from a mtg and could not get down my driveway.....the plow guy didn't make a wide enough path for the car to fit thru...but just mountains of snow across the area. The big question now is where are we gonna pile the next one??

Speaking of that...I ran the Wxsim program against the 18z data for the NW Philly Burbs

It has light snow arriving during the day Tuesday with maybe a inch by late night. Snow gets underway in earnest around midnight with a transition/mix with IP by late morning. It indicates 6 to 8" of snow and sleet and then around .25" of ZR to top it off. Temps never rise above 30 during the event.

by the way

Very Light Snow here tonight

Temp 27.5

Welcome back. Seems like a very possible outcome next week. Oh, you missed a hell of a storm. :lightning:

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I know...I was stuck at the airport for part 1 and read the reports of #2....my wife carried out the measuring in my absence! She likes snow...but announced tonight that she is tired and wants the snow to stop. Something tells me she won't be getting her wish this week!

Paul

Welcome back. Seems like a very possible outcome next week. Oh, you missed a hell of a storm. :lightning:

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I know...I was stuck at the airport for part 1 and read the reports of #2....my wife carried out the measuring in my absence! She likes snow...but announced tonight that she is tired and wants the snow to stop. Something tells me she won't be getting her wish this week!

Paul

She did a good job. Next week looks very messy. We'll see how it plays out.

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