tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 They have warmed some from 12z and the slp is actually closer to the coast than it was on at 12z when it redevelops IMHO. yea they have warmed, but the trac is pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There is little room for error though and we are 5+ days out. If the primary ends up a bit further west or further north, than we would pretty much see mostly sleet and rain. I'm hoping high pressure to the north turns more expansive and gets stronger. I think in the best case scenario, we see something like PD II but with less extreme amounts and worse case is some ice/sleet but mostly rain. It seems like this is what HPC is implying since they think it will have to expand its area of heavy snow southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Also, if the GFS truly is correct, and it's snow and sleet mixed with temperatures near 20 degrees, that would still accumulate rather effectively. also it doesn't seem like central park will lose much snowpack between now and then, maybe 3-5inches since they were down to 20 at 12z today(but I dont think most of the 3 lost was due to melting as much as it was to compaction)...we could be talking about a pretty hefty snowpack if it ends up mostly or all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 whats stopping the coastal from popping further south, say closer to NC/VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 heres the gfs indiv ens members at hr 120 hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 whats stopping the coastal from popping further south, say closer to NC/VA? Departing high pressure over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 whats stopping the coastal from popping further south, say closer to NC/VA? couple things, lack of blocking being the #1. It allows the primary to hold on longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 couple things, lack of blocking being the #1. It allows the primary to hold on longer I guess this is part of the reason why we never really had a chance of getting a 96'ish type event out of this, althugh it seems like the main low wants to track pretty far south on the GFS while its near the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You guys are really setting yourselves up for a big fall if you keep thinking this will be ANYTHING like 96, all the talk really needs to stop. It's beyond weenieish. The trends aren't encouraging at all, yet some keep bringing it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You guys are really setting yourselves up for a big fall if you keep thinking this will be ANYTHING like 96, all the talk really needs to stop. It's beyond weenieish. The trends aren't encouraging at all, yet some keep bringing it up. once again..................nobody is suggesting this is like 96. I was simply stating one reason why we never had a chance for that to happen despite having some of the players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You guys are really setting yourselves up for a big fall if you keep thinking this will be ANYTHING like 96, all the talk really needs to stop. It's beyond weenieish. The trends aren't encouraging at all, yet some keep bringing it up. That storm wouldnt even be a proper analog if this storm maxed out to what it could do. Feb 83 and Feb 03 are more like it. Oh BTW nothing is weenieish this winter. But yes, Jan 96 isnt the proper analog even if this maxed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It seems like this is what HPC is implying since they think it will have to expand its area of heavy snow southward. If we do get prolonged sleet or even rain, the amount of water in the snowpack will be incredible. It's already so waterlogged, and adding up to an inch more liquid to it could really cause some danger to roofs here. It would turn the whole snowpack into a concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If we do get prolonged sleet or even rain, the amount of water in the snowpack will be incredible. It's already so waterlogged, and adding up to an inch more liquid to it could really cause some danger to roofs here. It would turn the whole snowpack into a concrete. I wonder if it did rain, would it be freezing rain or plain rain. Goldberg on ABC implied that they might be too low with temps on Wed (he had 32 as the high) and said new info was coming in telling him Wed might be much milder than first thought (he was talking about highs in the upper 30s for NYC.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I wonder if it did rain, would it be freezing rain or plain rain. Goldberg on ABC implied that they might be too low with temps on Wed (he had 32 as the high) and said new info was coming in telling him Wed might be much milder than first thought (he was talking about highs in the upper 30s for NYC.) I would think that even on the warmest guidance (euro?)temps probably dont make it to the upper 30's but I could be wrong. Even if it did, the majority of the models have temps staying AOB freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I would think that even on the warmest guidance (euro?)temps probably dont make it to the upper 30's but I could be wrong. Even if it did, the majority of the models have temps staying AOB freezing euro is 40-45 for the 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 euro is 40-45 for the 2m temps. **** thats high lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I would think that even on the warmest guidance (euro?)temps probably dont make it to the upper 30's but I could be wrong. Even if it did, the majority of the models have temps staying AOB freezing It sounded like he was trying to give both extremes-- he basically said that we could have a big snowstorm, a mixed scenario, or a snow to heavy rain deal with temps in the upper 30s. But if it does get into the 40s like the Euro says, it might be time to break out the shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 **** thats high lol. That would likely torch away half or more of our snowpack. The last one we had got us to 45F for maybe a few hours, and 8" of snow was reduced mostly to piles (and that was AFTER we had an inch or so of snow/sleet prior to changing to rain). The east wind and high humidity combined with those temps are absolutely killer. But I doubt temps get that high, and the Euro is very often too warm at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro was at least 5 degrees too warm with surface temperatures with this past storm here in the Northeast and about 2 degrees too warm with 850 temps. Though it did have the precipitation pretty much in the right locations and in the right quantities. I would say to use the Euro precip amounts but to reduce the surface temps by 5-7 degrees and the 850 temps by 2 degrees. euro is 40-45 for the 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That would likely torch away half or more of our snowpack. The last one we had got us to 45F for maybe a few hours, and 8" of snow was reduced mostly to piles (and that was AFTER we had an inch or so of snow/sleet prior to changing to rain). The east wind and high humidity combined with those temps are absolutely killer. But I doubt temps get that high, and the Euro is very often too warm at this range. The following morning there was a dense fog that had formed over the snow pack. I was driving on the Clearview that morning where it cuts through a wooded area and there was a thick fog that appeared out of nowhere. What a sloppy nasty day that was. Please none of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would think that even on the warmest guidance (euro?)temps probably dont make it to the upper 30's but I could be wrong. Even if it did, the majority of the models have temps staying AOB freezing We're very lucky we have this massive Quebec vortex and confluent flow. Without that, we'd be staring down a massive cutter and torch. That ridge/trough alignment in the West is very unfavorable for us. However, the initial cold air and confluence can save us from that if timed properly. We need a transfer to a coastal storm fairly early, because there's almost certainly going to be an attempt by this thing to head towards the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys are really setting yourselves up for a big fall if you keep thinking this will be ANYTHING like 96, all the talk really needs to stop. It's beyond weenieish. The trends aren't encouraging at all, yet some keep bringing it up. What is your analog for this storm then? Nothing is a fall at this point- its all a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not that you guys do not know this but just wanted to put into perspective how special your winter is in the nyc metro area... I live in spfd mass, i have recieved 48.7 inches of snow so far this season which is right about normal for an entire season. After the storm yesterday I had a peak depth of just over two feet on the level. My biggest storms this year were 19 inches 1/12 and 10 inches 1/27. The boxing day storm was a disaster here with just 5.5 inches. I do not clear a board so my numbers might be a little conservative but overall i am meticulous in my reporting and measurements. Prior to the storm 1/12 there had not been a storm with over a foot of snow area wide since pd 2 storm of 2003. There was the feb 06 storm but the gradient went right through spfd so amounts ranged from 8 to 22 inches nw to se across the city limits so that had to be discounted for area wide. My aunt and uncle live in rye ny they have had three storm with a foot or more in the past month and nearly sixty inches so far this season so far!! They only average thirty or so inches a year!!!! The nyc metro area has had two behemoth storms..boxing day and the most recent one..both which put down snowfall rates of up to four and five inches/hr and total storm accums of 15-25 inches in the first and 15-20 inches in the second. plus thundersnow with both. Now for parts of ne nj perhaps the situation is even more epic?? That is just unbelievable. There is no doubt that the nyc metro area will get sig more snow this season, pattern is too wild, even if the storm track shifts a bit further n overall i predict the nyc area to get at least anothe one to two feet before the snow season is over and spring comes. For someone like me to compare to the nyc metro area I would need to have had at least another giant storm of 18 inches or more or have picked up eighty or ninety inches by now( not 50)..and the folks in these parts have not seen this much snow since the winters of very long ago!!! Dont get me wrong I am greatful for what I have had so far but I just want to say how lucky you guys really are! Most sincere congrats!! Makes living through all the horridly snowless winters of the 80s and there were a few in the 90s that were just terrible..all worth while.. No one needs me to remind them of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is your analog for this storm then? Nothing is a fall at this point- its all a guess. Not January 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not January 96. I dont think there can be a proper analog until we have a better idea whats going to happen. Not Jan 1996 that's for sure. That was a one in fifty year storm. Feb 83 / PD2 would be analogs in a best case scenario. Worst case scenario? Just pick a storm out of the late 80s after 1986-87 and early 90s prior to 1992-93.... any will suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone needs to repost that graph of us currently out-pacing 95-96...jesus I never thought I would see anything like that...regardless of what might happen the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone needs to repost that graph of us currently out-pacing 95-96...jesus I never thought I would see anything like that...regardless of what might happen the rest of the winter. Lol John.... another way to look at it is..... we're not even halfway through the snow season and yet.... we've already surpassed such great snowfall seasons as 60-61 and 77-78. We've already surpassed 93-94, 02-03 and last winter. All epic seasons. Only a few dominoes yet remain to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone needs to repost that graph of us currently out-pacing 95-96...jesus I never thought I would see anything like that...regardless of what might happen the rest of the winter. Good post for sure. Last year and this year winter weather wise, its completely mind blowing. People i think need to relax, we are for the most part living the best winters of our lives in the 2xxx's with the 83,93,and 96 storms also thrown in there. Yes March 5th 2001 was a debacle we dont wanna live over again ever, but that should be let go as to we are living lovely times of great winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is your analog for this storm then? Nothing is a fall at this point- its all a guess. A busted version of 2/8/94 is probably a good description right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A busted version of 2/8/94 is probably a good description right now. Why busted SG? That was a great storm-- underforecasted, but great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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