Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 big dump of snow over to a lot of ice on this run for the cities. I'd venture to guess that if NYC saw 6in of snow turn to heavy freezing rain with an appreciable accumulation with temps easily below freezing, this would be and extremely disruptive situation, maybe even moreso than a 12in snowstorm. We haven't seen this type of storm in the NYC area since maybe 93-94. Now I now VD 2007 was an "ice storm" but it was mostly sleet and much less (if any?) actual snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 At 123 hours, major ice storm for parts of jersey and PA. At 126 hours, NYC switches over to ice too. Warmer at the mid levels this run. As we said, 12z was best case scenario. Doesnt look like 32 surface line gets north of middle jersey even though 850 does warm. Lots of ice. lol well thats wonderful-- replay of the great Jan 1994 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good luck up there Big Jim. I agree it's your time to shine. Well see what happens down this way. I think snow to ice at the very least where I live..I'm not exactly concerned with the euro solution today just yet given the other guidance, but we will see if rain becomes likely down this way. Agree with SG that if it locks into something then I'll follow it. I sense much more caution coming from you than with the last storm I have to say that I have a macabre desire to see a 2 inch ice storm like we got back in Jan 1994. The snow we have on the ground isnt going anywhere-- why not add some icing on top BTW with so much overrunning, why is it so hard to get a Feb 1983 or Feb 2003 type of storm where everyone gets buried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Lokks like 6 hours of ice and back to snow - pretty nice. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm just happy we have the potential here to see over a 24 hour event for the first time this season.....and with so many days to go who knows what the final outcome will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 nyc never gets above feezing this run, after a good dump on the font end for nyc and north jersey, then the upper levels warm and ice is a major problem. I just cant look at this and start throwing out forecasts like some did last week. This is all gonna change anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm just happy we have the potential here to see over a 24 hour event for the first time this season.....and with so many days to go who knows what the final outcome will be. How long is this supposed to last? The last one was almost 24 hrs if you combine both parts. The December storm was about 24 hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 As I said with the last storm, until we get model agreement for at least four consecutive runs I will once again wait until Tues and then start with the nowcasting. I have learned one thing this year...the models have a very difficult time in a cold La Nina pattern. The northern jet is just too damn strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Snow to Ice to light snow in many places on this run. Verbatim, this would be one hell of a storm, causing major problems, but interesting to see---storm is just so amped with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How long is this supposed to last? The last one was almost 24 hrs if you combine both parts. The December storm was about 24 hours too. It looks like initial overrunning gets going between 00z and 06z Wed morning. It would be light in nature for the first part and then a heavy thump of snow turning to ice maybe turning back to snow for a couple hours as the storm moves out. All told it seems like its outta here by early Thurs morning so it looks like another 24hr event. This is based on the GFS btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It looks like initial overrunning gets going between 00z and 06z Wed morning. It would be light in nature for the first part and then a heavy thump of snow turning to ice maybe turning back to snow for a couple hours as the storm moves out. All told it seems like its outta here by early Thurs morning so it looks like another 24hr event. This is based on the GFS btw... Sounds like 6-8 inches of snow and about half an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I haven't looked at a lot today. Can anyone fill me in? Sounds like we went from a bunch of guidance yesterday showing several inches of overrunning snow, now to snow changing to a widespread major ice storm with changeover back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I haven't looked at a lot today. Can anyone fill me in? Sounds like we went from a bunch of guidance yesterday showing several inches of overrunning snow, now to snow changing to a widespread major ice storm with changeover back to snow? Most of the models have an all-snow event here with ice along I-95. The EURO as of now is the furthest west and changes everyone south of NEng over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sounds like 6-8 inches of snow and about half an inch of ice. Ya and lets hope for peoples property sake that the ice is sleet and not freezing rain. 6in or so of snow with a half an inch of freezing rain on top of anywhere between 14-20in of snowdepth by the arrival of the storm could spell problems for peoples roofs potentially...this in addition to the normal problems with icing on trees and powerlines. I'm sure many people here are hoping for all snow, snow and sleet or snow to rain as this snow to freezing rain spells trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Most of the models have an all-snow event here with ice along I-95. The EURO as of now is the furthest west and changes everyone south of NEng over to rain. Alright. North to south fluctuations are expected with this type of setup. Just wanted to know where we stand attm. Everyone still in the game as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No one get too attached to any one solution until maybe Tuesday night. This was roughly the range that we had some PA posters telling us it WOULD NOT snow on the coast and that it was an interior snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Currently a nice light snow here in Lynbrook. Does tomorrow look like Central Park can get that inch to make it snowiest month ever? Also, what is the earliest start time for next weeks business? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS continued the cold with a +PNA dominated pattern through the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ya and lets hope for peoples property sake that the ice is sleet and not freezing rain. 6in or so of snow with a half an inch of freezing rain on top of anywhere between 14-20in of snowdepth by the arrival of the storm could spell problems for peoples roofs potentially...this in addition to the normal problems with icing on trees and powerlines. I'm sure many people here are hoping for all snow, snow and sleet or snow to rain as this snow to freezing rain spells trouble. With a huge overrunning set up with arctic air to our north and west, Im sure a Feb 83 or Feb 03 type solution is also in play. That way, you'd get a huge area with over a foot of snow, north, south, east and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No one get too attached to any one solution until maybe Tuesday night. This was roughly the range that we had some PA posters telling us it WOULD NOT snow on the coast and that it was an interior snowstorm. I think one thing we can latch onto at this stage is that there is a higher percentage this event ends up all or mostly frozen for us, but little percentage it is ALL snow. I think we do pick up another 6incher here but following that could be some pretty awful icing. I'd love an all snow-storm though, and I think that might be what is advertised for my location on the 18z GFS but I think you're right its probably best to wait to see where the model consensus heads...either towards the euro or GGEM...or maybe like last week to a new solution entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think one thing we can latch onto at this stage is that there is a higher percentage this event ends up all or mostly frozen for us, but little percentage it is ALL snow. I think we do pick up another 6incher here but following that could be some pretty awful icing. I'd love an all snow-storm though, and I think that might be what is advertised for my location on the 18z GFS but I think you're right its probably best to wait to see where the model consensus heads...either towards the euro or GGEM...or maybe like last week to a new solution entirely. It really depends on your definition of all snow. If by "all snow" you mean, not one ice pellet, then yes, the percentages are quite low. However, I would consider the past event a snowstorm, even though we did have a little sleet and freezing drizzle. Something like that is still not off the table IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS taken verbatim would be more crippling then anything else. Solid front end snows followed by crippling ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It really depends on your definition of all snow. If by "all snow" you mean, not one ice pellet, then yes, the percentages are quite low. However, I would consider the past event a snowstorm, even though we did have a little sleet and freezing drizzle. Something like that is still not off the table IMO. I have to agree since sleet is still measured as snow-- so to all intents and purposes, sleet is snow. ZR is another matter however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs ens mean is basically the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I have to agree since sleet is still measured as snow-- so to all intents and purposes, sleet is snow. ZR is another matter however. Yes I should've been more specific. I literally mean snow not snow and sleet. I haven't looked at all levels so I couldn't be sure (although based on what people are saying it seems like snow to freezing rain). I think there is also a relatively high percentage of just snow and sleet falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs ens mean is basically the same as 12z. they are hiniting at a seconday low that slips off the delmarva. As long as the low stays south of me im not worried atm, as this will likely change a whole lot in the next 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs ens mean is basically the same as 12z. They have warmed some from 12z and the slp is actually closer to the coast than it was on at 12z when it redevelops IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There is little room for error though and we are 5+ days out. If the primary ends up a bit further west or further north, than we would pretty much see mostly sleet and rain. I'm hoping high pressure to the north turns more expansive and gets stronger. I think in the best case scenario, we see something like PD II but with less extreme amounts and worse case is some ice/sleet but mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To me and it is the 18z GFS, still quite a few days away, I think next week is going to impact many folks across the central and eastern US. The QPF output from a lot of the long range models from the the GFS, Euro, and Canadian, just show a very large winter weather event breaking out next week from significant snow over the central US that spills out east.. Probably a very serious ice storm say over portions of northern VA into PA.. It just has that look of a widespread event for many.. Just a very impressive event for next week. .That arctic air coming down is really going to keep this a wintry mess over a good portion of the central and eastern US. Yes, probably some rain out of it at the end.. Anyway, just quick thoughts.. Tons of stuff coming up for next week. Does look pretty darn interesting.. Also the prospects for severe weather, so we will have plenty on our plate here.. GFS taken verbatim would be more crippling then anything else. Solid front end snows followed by crippling ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yes I should've been more specific. I literally mean snow not snow and sleet. I haven't looked at all levels so I couldn't be sure (although based on what people are saying it seems like snow to freezing rain). I think there is also a relatively high percentage of just snow and sleet falling. Also, if the GFS truly is correct, and it's snow and sleet mixed with temperatures near 20 degrees, that would still accumulate rather effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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