2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

All we need is a weaker ejecting shortwave trough so it doesn't amplify ridging ahead and that would be enough to drop this south a bit right?

[A-L-E-X]

This is from GIL888 who is a met.

I'm thinking NYC and BOS are ok with this one, but DC is in trouble if they want a lot of snow. Better model agreement for now, but the CAD on the east side of the Appalachians needs to be present and not get scoured out like a few models are forecasting. I'll feel better after the Euro locks in I think there is also the potential for a decent severe weather outbreak for AR/MS/LA as well as the storm winds up initially. At least the active weather pattern will continue!

And our very own AMPSU

am19psu, on 28 January 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

Pending the Euro ensembles, I still like the less amplified GFS/GEM solutions for next week's evolution moreso than the amplified European given the current ensemble member guidance. If those solutions pan out, everyone north of the Ohio River should be in good shape.

Everyone calm down-- it was just one run of the euro lol.

[TheTrials]

Upton as at 3pm

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY RETREATS AS SOUTHERN

SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TRACK EAST TO

NORTHEAST. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY AS INCREASING

ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE INITIAL LOW AND THEN

DEVELOPING THE COASTAL LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE LAST FEW STORMS ECMWF STARTS OFF

WARMER THAN OTHER MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER AND

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW WEDNESDAY...THEN DEVELOPS

THE COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS A COLDER SOLUTION...AND WITH ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH PREFER

USING A BLEND OF THE HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH

CURRENT THINKING WILL SEE WINTRY MIX IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH

SNOW INLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY

MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND

TIMING OF THE LOW AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LIKELY TO BE CHANGES

TO THE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.-- End Changed Discussion --

The part I bolded fits well the ECM sw energy bias.

[ace0927]

This is from GIL888 who is a met.

I'm thinking NYC and BOS are ok with this one, but DC is in trouble if they want a lot of snow. Better model agreement for now, but the CAD on the east side of the Appalachians needs to be present and not get scoured out like a few models are forecasting. I'll feel better after the Euro locks in I think there is also the potential for a decent severe weather outbreak for AR/MS/LA as well as the storm winds up initially. At least the active weather pattern will continue!

And our very own AMPSU

am19psu, on 28 January 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

Pending the Euro ensembles, I still like the less amplified GFS/GEM solutions for next week's evolution moreso than the amplified European given the current ensemble member guidance. If those solutions pan out, everyone north of the Ohio River should be in good shape.

Everyone calm down-- it was just one run of the euro lol.

and considering how poor it has been on east coast events, especially in this time range, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

while it might wind up sleeting here (south shore of LI) for a while, i believe we are looking at a minimum of a significant snowfall prior to that changeover.

[rossi]

Anything on the EURO Ensembles as yet?

Rossi

By the way snowing in Monmouth cty, nj - snow capital of the world

[A-L-E-X]

and considering how poor it has been on east coast events, especially in this time range, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

while it might wind up sleeting here (south shore of LI) for a while, i believe we are looking at a minimum of a significant snowfall prior to that changeover.

and afterwards also-- like the storm we just had.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm seeing a lot of wishcasting and pulling at straws in this thread..."It's winter 2010-2011","the Euro's bias is at play","the GGEM is colder and it was warm last storm","the GFS is the most reasonable solution","look at that HP, no way we get anything but frozen".

Don't get me wrong, there's been some good analysis also (thanks earthlight and others).

I'm pulling for a farther south displaced pv or a fresh HP dropping south as the overunning begins. However, we have fair agreement on most guidance that the 850 and 700 mb lows will remain N and W of most of us. Regardless how cold the initial surface conditions are, the SW flow around those lows will quickly warm 925mb layer and down.

I don't think this setup is quite as good as some are making it out to be. Things can certainly change but this has burst of snow over to sleet/fzra then rain written all over it. Rather textbook setup actually in that regard.

Here's hoping we get some changes over the next several days for the better.

[forkyfork]

i looked at gfs bufkit for ewr... they are all snow until they flip to sleet at 132 hours just before the storm ends

it's better than last night

[rossi]

EURO ENSEMBLES- Anyone?

[CooL]

I'm seeing a lot of wishcasting and pulling at straws in this thread..."It's winter 2010-2011","the Euro's bias is at play","the GGEM is colder and it was warm last storm","the GFS is the most reasonable solution","look at that HP, no way we get anything but frozen".

Don't get me wrong, there's been some good analysis also (thanks earthlight and others).

I'm pulling for a farther south displaced pv or a fresh HP dropping south as the overunning begins. However, we have fair agreement on most guidance that the 850 and 700 mb lows will remain N and W of most of us. Regardless how cold the initial surface conditions are, the SW flow around those lows will quickly warm 925mb layer and down.

I don't think this setup is quite as good as some are making it out to be. Things can certainly change but this has burst of snow over to sleet/fzra then rain written all over it. Rather textbook setup actually in that regard.

Here's hoping we get some changes over the next several days for the better.

It seems as even if the models are close to the final solution, well then, latitude is going to matter. So who are you talking about?

but chances are they are not close to the final solution, but overunning usually has a sharp dividing line of rain/snow/sleet due to the really tight gradient of temps...

[RobbTC]

WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOST NUMERICAL MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER TEXAS. THESE MODEL RUNS PREDICT THE STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE MOST MODELS AGREEING ON THIS TRACK TODAY, FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THEY HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A GULF COAST TRACK AND AN OHIO VALLEY TRACK. THEREFORE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE HAZARDOUS SNOW/ICE/RAIN AREAS DELINEATED ON THE MAIN GRAPHIC MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED TOO LITERALLY AT THIS TIME. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV . ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A DEPICTION ON THE COMPOSITE MAP. HOWEVER, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA CONSULT THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS STORM, SHOULD CONDITIONS CHANGE.

[forkyfork]

How does it look for philly?

snow until 126, then zr

[Stephen Turner]

snow until 126, then zr

how does it look for coastal NJ?

[ace0927]

WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOST NUMERICAL MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER TEXAS. THESE MODEL RUNS PREDICT THE STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE MOST MODELS AGREEING ON THIS TRACK TODAY, FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THEY HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A GULF COAST TRACK AND AN OHIO VALLEY TRACK. THEREFORE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE HAZARDOUS SNOW/ICE/RAIN AREAS DELINEATED ON THE MAIN GRAPHIC MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED TOO LITERALLY AT THIS TIME. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV . ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A DEPICTION ON THE COMPOSITE MAP. HOWEVER, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA CONSULT THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS STORM, SHOULD CONDITIONS CHANGE.

i think this might be the antithesis of "gun shy"....

[NJwinter23]

i looked at gfs bufkit for ewr... they are all snow until they flip to sleet at 132 hours just before the storm ends

it's better than last night

snow until 126, then zr

how does it look for coastal NJ?

Take a good guess from the above 2 posts...This literal stuff isnt important by the way 100 hrs out on the gfs

[tombo82685]

EURO ENSEMBLES- Anyone?

[jrodd321]

[TheTrials]

i think this might be the antithesis of "gun shy"....

You can't send that kind of moisture up over that kind of cold dome and not see heavy snow to start in almost all of the places they have it outlined. I know people hear or see SWFE and think back to a ton of storms that didnt start or end well, but you just can't say they have been bad before and they will be bad again. I for one cannot remember this type of cold dome which will be incredibly deep and fresh coupled with extremely -EPO. I think this is why HPC put out that kind of map and wording.

[Kaner587]

I'm seeing a lot of wishcasting and pulling at straws in this thread..."It's winter 2010-2011","the Euro's bias is at play","the GGEM is colder and it was warm last storm","the GFS is the most reasonable solution","look at that HP, no way we get anything but frozen".

Don't get me wrong, there's been some good analysis also (thanks earthlight and others).

I'm pulling for a farther south displaced pv or a fresh HP dropping south as the overunning begins. However, we have fair agreement on most guidance that the 850 and 700 mb lows will remain N and W of most of us. Regardless how cold the initial surface conditions are, the SW flow around those lows will quickly warm 925mb layer and down.

I don't think this setup is quite as good as some are making it out to be. Things can certainly change but this has burst of snow over to sleet/fzra then rain written all over it. Rather textbook setup actually in that regard.

Here's hoping we get some changes over the next several days for the better.

I know you are talking about set-up as opposed to modeled solutions at this point, but honestly, many of the set-ups so far this winter have not been conducive to frozen precip (no -NAO, departing HP, transient 50/50) yet there have obviously been quite a few good storms. Now I'm not denying that this is a rather typical overrunning set-up, but while there is no reason to completely trust any of the models at this point, the Euro is the only one that has anything like what you expect will happen. Does knowledge of the synoptic pattern in a situation like this help predict what may be the final solution? Of course. But to say people are wishcasting and pulling straws in thinking that this COULD be a good storm is just downright wrong. The HPC clearly supports a more frozen solution and while you may be correct in the end, I don't think any of the options are off the table, and that is what I think is important, not that people are wishcasting thinking this might be a good storm. There is potential, the set-up isn't great, and if a couple things fall the right way we may see another significant storm around these parts.

[IsentropicLift]

Mt. Holly seems excited

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANOTHER PROBABLE WINTER EVENT IS IN THE OFFING IN THE LONG TERM

CENTERED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRIOR TO THE MAIN EVENT OCCURRING...AN ARCTIC HIGH HAS STRETCHED

ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE USA AND DRAINS COLD AIR INTO MID

ATLC STATES MON NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION NEAR ZERO CHILL

IN NW NJ AND NE PA. WCI MAY DIP TO 10 BELOW ZERO BUT WITH SUSTAINED

WIND EXPECTED UNDER 6 KNOTS IN COLDEST AREA...NO MENTION ATTM IN THE

UPCOMING HWO UPDATE.

TUESDAY...THINK WE HAVE A CHANCE AT WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW

AS A RRQ UPPER LVL JET SPEED MAX...ABOUT 140 KNOTS AT 250 MB...

CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD GENERATE DECENT WAA AND SLY

JET NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE 700MB WIND

SHOULD SEND SNOW FROM THAT OVER HERE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST

AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THERE MIGHT BE SOME SORT OF BREAK BUT IF SO...NOT

FOR LONG. TIMING OF THE TUESDAY ONSET AND TUES NIGHT BREAK IS

UNCERTAIN AND MAYBE AS MUCH AS 9 HOURS IN ERROR. FOR NOW...GAVE IT

MY BEST COMPROMISE TIMING EFFORT.

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED 250MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO QUEBEC AND

INTENSIFIES POSSIBLY TO 175 KNOTS WED WHILE A LFQ OF A 130 KNOT TENN

VALLEY SPEED MAX APPROACHES...IE FAVORABLE DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE FOR

A DECENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WITH CONSIDERABLE PWAT IN THE

WARM SECTOR AND QUITE A BIT OF OVERRUNNING SNOW AND ICE.

DETAILS LEFT TBD THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT A SIMPLE BLEND OF 12Z

GFS/ECMWF OFFERS .8 TO 1.4 INCH QPF FOR PHI CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE

WITH THE SEVERAL RECENT CYCLIC RUNS OF THE NAEFS WHICH IS MUCH MORE

BULLISH ON QPF OVER .4 INCHES AND ALSO MORE THAN 1 INCH HERE THAN

THIS PAST WEDNESDAYS EVENT.

THEREFORE...A POTENT WINTER WX EVENT LOOMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

PRELIMINARY SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED FROM GFS/ECMWF BLENDED PARTIAL

THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMP FCSTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES

OF SNOW IN THE PHILLY AREA IN THE 48 HR PERIOD ENDING 10Z THU WITH

MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NW EDGE OF OUR CWA FROM THE

POCONOS TO NW NJ. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCRETION IF THE 12Z/28 UK/EC SOLUTION PREVAILS.

GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL COLD... AND FOR WHAT ITS WORTH HAVE ALMOST AN

INCH OF SNOW LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT. WE`LL CHECK THE 12Z/28 NAEFS

TRENDS IN AN HOUR AND THAT INFORMATION HEREIN AROUND 5PM.

FOR THIS PAST WEDNESDAYS SNOW BLITZ GEFS QPF AMOUNTS FOR PHL AND ABE

WERE MORE ACCURATE THAN THE SREF. WE`RE STILL OUTSIDE THE SREF TIME

FRAME FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

NO MATTER...THIS WILL BE AN EVENT THAT IS WORTHWHILE MONITORING FOR

NEXT TUE/WED...ITS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WX IS SUBSTANTIAL. AGAIN

LOTS CAN ADJUST BUT AT THE LEAST...SNOW AND ICE IS ANTICIPATED AT

THE BEGINNING. HOW IT ALL EVOLVES WEDNESDAY IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE ENERGY WAS PLACED INTO THIS

PORTION OF THE FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER SOME SNOW

SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL AVERAGE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS THERE

APPEARS NO END TO THE COLD POSITIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN.-- End Changed Discussion --

[ace0927]

You can't send that kind of moisture up over that kind of cold dome and not see heavy snow to start in almost all of the places they have it outlined. I know people hear or see SWFE and think back to a ton of storms that didnt start or end well, but you just can't say they have been bad before and they will be bad again. I for one cannot remember this type of cold dome which will be incredibly deep and fresh coupled with extremely -EPO. I think this is why HPC put out that kind of map and wording.

i agree- if you have followed my posts the past few days I am gung ho for another solid winter event next week....

Did any model have the hP that wound up in Canada there at 132hr out last week? NO....they had a low exiting the east coast forcing southerly winds to ruin the day....

I have a feeling the huge hP cell dropping in early next will be further east than what is being...or atleast extend further east....forcing the LP to stay south of what the Euro is showing

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro has handled southwest flow events better than any other model in the past but its been inconsistent already on this event....if it begins to show something consistently though inside of 4 days I'm going to ride it all the way since it usually schools the other models on these events.

[Kaner587]

i agree- if you have followed my posts the past few days I am gung ho for another solid winter event next week....

Did any model have the hP that wound up in Canada there at 132hr out last week? NO....they had a low exiting the east coast forcing southerly winds to ruin the day....

I have a feeling the huge hP cell dropping in early next will be further east than what is being...or atleast extend further east....forcing the LP to stay south of what the Euro is showing

Don't forget the 1/21 system which at first looked like it would have a track too far north for PHL-NYC and we all know how that turned out.

[TheTrials]

Mt. Holly seems excited

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANOTHER PROBABLE WINTER EVENT IS IN THE OFFING IN THE LONG TERM

CENTERED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRIOR TO THE MAIN EVENT OCCURRING...AN ARCTIC HIGH HAS STRETCHED

ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE USA AND DRAINS COLD AIR INTO MID

ATLC STATES MON NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION NEAR ZERO CHILL

IN NW NJ AND NE PA. WCI MAY DIP TO 10 BELOW ZERO BUT WITH SUSTAINED

WIND EXPECTED UNDER 6 KNOTS IN COLDEST AREA...NO MENTION ATTM IN THE

UPCOMING HWO UPDATE.

TUESDAY...THINK WE HAVE A CHANCE AT WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW

AS A RRQ UPPER LVL JET SPEED MAX...ABOUT 140 KNOTS AT 250 MB...

CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD GENERATE DECENT WAA AND SLY

JET NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE 700MB WIND

SHOULD SEND SNOW FROM THAT OVER HERE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST

AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THERE MIGHT BE SOME SORT OF BREAK BUT IF SO...NOT

FOR LONG. TIMING OF THE TUESDAY ONSET AND TUES NIGHT BREAK IS

UNCERTAIN AND MAYBE AS MUCH AS 9 HOURS IN ERROR. FOR NOW...GAVE IT

MY BEST COMPROMISE TIMING EFFORT.

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED 250MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO QUEBEC AND

INTENSIFIES POSSIBLY TO 175 KNOTS WED WHILE A LFQ OF A 130 KNOT TENN

VALLEY SPEED MAX APPROACHES...IE FAVORABLE DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE FOR

A DECENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WITH CONSIDERABLE PWAT IN THE

WARM SECTOR AND QUITE A BIT OF OVERRUNNING SNOW AND ICE.

DETAILS LEFT TBD THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT A SIMPLE BLEND OF 12Z

GFS/ECMWF OFFERS .8 TO 1.4 INCH QPF FOR PHI CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE

WITH THE SEVERAL RECENT CYCLIC RUNS OF THE NAEFS WHICH IS MUCH MORE

BULLISH ON QPF OVER .4 INCHES AND ALSO MORE THAN 1 INCH HERE THAN

THIS PAST WEDNESDAYS EVENT.

THEREFORE...A POTENT WINTER WX EVENT LOOMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

PRELIMINARY SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED FROM GFS/ECMWF BLENDED PARTIAL

THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMP FCSTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES

OF SNOW IN THE PHILLY AREA IN THE 48 HR PERIOD ENDING 10Z THU WITH

MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NW EDGE OF OUR CWA FROM THE

POCONOS TO NW NJ. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCRETION IF THE 12Z/28 UK/EC SOLUTION PREVAILS.

GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL COLD... AND FOR WHAT ITS WORTH HAVE ALMOST AN

INCH OF SNOW LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT. WE`LL CHECK THE 12Z/28 NAEFS

TRENDS IN AN HOUR AND THAT INFORMATION HEREIN AROUND 5PM.

FOR THIS PAST WEDNESDAYS SNOW BLITZ GEFS QPF AMOUNTS FOR PHL AND ABE

WERE MORE ACCURATE THAN THE SREF. WE`RE STILL OUTSIDE THE SREF TIME

FRAME FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

NO MATTER...THIS WILL BE AN EVENT THAT IS WORTHWHILE MONITORING FOR

NEXT TUE/WED...ITS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WX IS SUBSTANTIAL. AGAIN

LOTS CAN ADJUST BUT AT THE LEAST...SNOW AND ICE IS ANTICIPATED AT

THE BEGINNING. HOW IT ALL EVOLVES WEDNESDAY IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE ENERGY WAS PLACED INTO THIS

PORTION OF THE FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER SOME SNOW

SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL AVERAGE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS THERE

APPEARS NO END TO THE COLD POSITIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN.-- End Changed Discussion --

Big nod to the GEFS. Not surprised as HPC and Upton are impressed with their performance as of late too.

[TheTrials]

The Euro has handled southwest flow events better than any other model in the past but its been inconsistent already on this event....if it begins to show something consistently though inside of 4 days I'm going to ride it all the way since it usually schools the other models on these events.

Well, I mentioned this before, and will do so again because it sticks out so much, the December 2008 SWFE it absolutely choked. That was a lot like this one looks right now at least.

[Big Jims Videos]

This is our storm. As Will.I.Am. says, "I gotta feelin'" but all autotuned n junk...

Seriously, this is almost the perfect set up for us snow-starved in NE-Central PA to get heavy snows--overrunning...where there's not some superbomb transfer of energy to a coastal low eroding the NW precip shield.

For all of us that live up this way (pretty much me, voyager and psuhazwx) this could make or break our winter.

*JIM*

[jm1220]

You can't send that kind of moisture up over that kind of cold dome and not see heavy snow to start in almost all of the places they have it outlined. I know people hear or see SWFE and think back to a ton of storms that didnt start or end well, but you just can't say they have been bad before and they will be bad again. I for one cannot remember this type of cold dome which will be incredibly deep and fresh coupled with extremely -EPO. I think this is why HPC put out that kind of map and wording.

I agree. I could see how warm air aloft can do enough damage to change a lot of us over to sleet, but the cold and high pressure anchoring it look vicious to say the least. It's going to take a lot to drive a low directly into that. That's why I see right now a low making it up to maybe E OH/Pitt area and then a coastal low takes over. The 850 and 700mb low positions will be key however, because if they go north of you it's very hard to ultimately stay snow (although you can definitely thump for a while beforehand). I also don't see how interior areas will see plain rain because of the snowcover and supply of cold air unless the warm air just goes ballistic. The Euro's warm bias might be overdoing the WAA at this stage. Some along the coast could go to rain very briefly, but once the storm is about done. 70% snow and 25% sleet, 5% other perhaps.

We're very lucky to have this vortex and supply of highs, because without it this would be a nasty lake cutter for sure-you could almost bank it with the bad ridge position out west and the energy diving down the trough.

[SnowGoose69]

Well, I mentioned this before, and will do so again because it sticks out so much, the December 2008 SWFE it absolutely choked. That was a lot like this one looks right now at least.

I can't recall that one...I know the NAM badly blew that one though as well, at least beyond 36 hours...thats not unusual though since the NAM tends to have a severe southward bias in these storms...it had that storm in 08 giving all snow to all of NJ 48 hours out.

[Bluescat1]

Mt. Holly seems excited

--

Walt Drag the legend.

[tombo82685]

for those wanting to know what the 18z nam would of looked like extended out....2m temps never get above freezing