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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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The problem is the GFS is NOT a classic NW of the cities snowstorm.

If I can get more than 6 inches out of it, I'll take it.

The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads.

Seriously. Per Allan's site, 2m temps never get above 30 in the I-81 corridor and 850's are at or below 0c. That sound like a nearly all snow event to me.

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I didn't see any bad analysis at all, everybody acknowledged that the GFS is snow to sleet. There was a good discussion on how mid level warm air advection is almost always underforecast, especially with the positioning of the mid level centers as the GFS advertises.

Saying "mostly" ice for the cities, and a big snowstorm only N & W is not bad analysis? If that isn't bad analysis, I don't know what is.

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I have been watching the euro all year. It likes to overphase storms in this range no doubt, hence the cutter. Remember last storm, euro was saying N and W get snow and cities get rain.. There has been many other examples as well of the euro overamplifying storms in this range.

yeah and its a good sign that the usually overamplifed GGEM at this time range is further S/E than the Euro

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yeah and its a good sign that the usually overamplifed GGEM at this time range is further S/E than the Euro

It was shocking to see it also SE of the GFS. I think we have a lot of surprises in store with this system. It's extremely pointless to argue temps-- whether on the surface or the mid layers-- this far out. You can see what happened with the last system and how that turned out. This one seems to be a better set up 5 days out. Let's take it from there.

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yeah and its a good sign that the usually overamplifed GGEM at this time range is further S/E than the Euro

Everybody likes to pull out the NOGAPS and say that if it's NW of the GFS, then the GFS is probably wrong. If the GGEM is less amped than the EURO, the EURO is probably wrong too.

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Another note, and this could just be my snow goggles or the lack of sleep from all the tracking, but the Euro failed miserable with the December 2008 event, consitently tracking the surface low too far N and W and failing to recognize the utter dominance of the EPO and the confluent flow over Canada. The NAM and GFS handled it much better with the NAM really kicking butt.

Just something to keep in mind, and probably a little too hopeful.

I agree. You are being too hopeful. For us older dogs, this situation/setup has played out countless times in our lives. This screams snow -> sleet -> ZR -> rain. My only hope is that I get dry slotted before I get too much rain and get flooded. I know everyone is hanging their hats on "oh my God, it's the winter of 2010-2011, it can't do anything but snow", but reality is that there is an end to every trend, and this may be it. I know that's not what anyone wants to hear (me included), but it needs to be said.

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Some are looking at the 850 low position and saying those sub freezing soundings don't make sense in that scenario. Its seems an approporiate analysis.

theyre obsessed with 850s :P

It's more or less the hallmark reason people cite to split the subforum into PHL and NYC.

While the GFS looks awesome for those in NYC,

gfs_pcp_132m.gif

gfs_850_132m.gif

THESE do NOT look as nice for those of us in interior Southern NJ or around PHL unless of course you enjoy the ping-ping-ping sound of sleet or rain, because no matter how you slice it, this sounding looks like crap to me--verbatim on the 12Z GFS today, of course:

GFS_3_2011012812_F132_39.5000N_75.0000W.png

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I agree. You are being too hopeful. For us older dogs, this situation/setup has played out countless times in our lives. This screams snow -> sleet -> ZR -> rain. My only hope is that I get dry slotted before I get too much rain and get flooded. I know everyone is hanging their hats on "oh my God, it's the winter of 2010-2011, it can't do anything but snow", but reality is that there is an end to every trend, and this may be it. I know that's not what anyone wants to hear (me included), but it needs to be said.

duly noted and I can't tell you how many times I heard that about 5 days ago and we know how that turned out.

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Wouldn't suprise me in the least if the final solution wound up much different than whats currently forecasted. We thought we had a decent consensus with the last event on an inland runner 4-5 days out and we all know how that one turned out. The models are like a box of chochlates lately even from run to run.

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I agree. You are being too hopeful. For us older dogs, this situation/setup has played out countless times in our lives. This screams snow -> sleet -> ZR -> rain. My only hope is that I get dry slotted before I get too much rain and get flooded. I know everyone is hanging their hats on "oh my God, it's the winter of 2010-2011, it can't do anything but snow", but reality is that there is an end to every trend, and this may be it. I know that's not what anyone wants to hear (me included), but it needs to be said.

Few if any other than December 2008 had a -epo. Something to keep in mind.

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I remember that storm well. It was a big virga storm here that was supposed to dump 8 inches of snow. Even when it was apparent the forecast was going to bust, the 6-8 inch forecasts remained steadfast. DC got dumped on.

A week later there was another forecast for 8 inches and the low bombed right over us and we got heavy rain instead. The month averaged 10 degrees below normal, one of our coldest Decembers ever, and we barely got any snow.

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It's more or less the hallmark reason people cite to split the subforum into PHL and NYC.

While the GFS looks awesome for those in NYC,

gfs_pcp_132m.gif

gfs_850_132m.gif

THESE do NOT look as nice for those of us in interior Southern NJ or around PHL unless of course you enjoy the ping-ping-ping sound of sleet or rain, because no matter how you slice it, this sounding looks like crap to me--verbatim on the 12Z GFS today, of course:

GFS_3_2011012812_F132_39.5000N_75.0000W.png

Northern and western burbs of philly look ok, although there is sleet and frz rn.

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from HPC. Looks like they are requesting PAC recon.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS USE A MULTIMODEL BLEND OF 00Z

GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN. THE RESULT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL

TO THE EARLIER USED SOLUTION.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE RUNS

WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC. NO CHANGES

FOR AFTERNOON FINALS.

AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY

TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH

GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL

BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH

MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL

PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS

OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND

REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA

SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW

PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY

NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY

SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND

FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT

ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC

PIEDMONT.

PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE

THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY

00Z/12Z 30 JAN.

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What do those numbers represent please?

The first set is the number of inches of snow the average east coast weenie is forecasted to get each year by the h384 GFS.

The second set is the number of hairs pulled out by the moderating team during "Storm Mode" as they delete IMBY post after IMBY post after IMBY post.

The third is the chance, in 1/1,000,000's of percent, of us seeing "The Day After Tomorrow's" storm in our lifetime.

The fourth represents the number of times JB and Henry M are made fun of on these boards during a normal winter.

The last, I don't know. Doubt it means squat.

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while we're throwing out meaningless numbers...

478890 383839023 90203785756 24154512152 33

Damn, Jason, somehow youve managed to figure out the unifying theory of the omniverse right there!

BTW I think you made a typo, the last two digits should be 34 not 33 ;)

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I think those with elevation such as West Chester and Coatesville in Chester county look fine.

Looking at the soundings on the 12Z GFS, while the surface is good north and west, you're above freezing from about 925 mb up to about 800 mb. That's either ZR or IP, and I'd truthfully rather have rain than that garbage.

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