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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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the gfs is really cold for the storm...

http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Kjfk.txt

Watch it, that is the raw model output. Try looking at the GFS MOS, which accounts for more boundary layer conditions and it better suited to 2m Temps and winds. That sort of thing. The raw data is often 3-8 degrees too high or too low than even the 6 hr verification.

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Watch it, that is the raw model output. Try looking at the GFS MOS, which accounts for more boundary layer conditions and it better suited to 2m Temps and winds. That sort of thing. The raw data is often 3-8 degrees too high or too low than even the 6 hr verification.

And MOS is also heavily waited toward climo +3 days out and usually way off.

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yea its 1.25-1.5 of qpf... .25 of that is frozen.

probably on the cusp then of a major flood problem....depending on how much falls in the upper portions of the Passaic River basin. Big problems in CT also.

Also I know flooding is not what people want to here but its a fact of life, all that wonderfull white stuff has to go somewhere when it eventually melts. I'm not the voice of doom just stating the possabilities.

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probably on the cusp then of a major flood problem then....depending on how much falls in the upper portions of the Passaic River basin. Big problems in CT also.

I know its a concern but can you please stop with floods everytime there is a new storm.

Rossi

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Good. That's exactly what we want. Let's hope it still shows the same scenario inside of 24 hours from the event.

This was the motto at this time frame before our last event, which in some aspects it was, however the end result was an overall snowier scenario for all excpet for the immediate coastal locations.

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the gfs is really cold for the storm...

http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Kjfk.txt

There is something wrong with that text output. Important differences throughout but for a real quick view, compare the difference at 180 hours (2/5 0z) between LGA and OKX:

LGA:

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Klga.txt

OKX:

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kokx.txt

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I have been watching the euro all year. It likes to overphase storms in this range no doubt, hence the cutter. Remember last storm, euro was saying N and W get snow and cities get rain.. There has been many other examples as well of the euro overamplifying storms in this range.

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The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads.

strongly agree, all layers of the column are mainly below freezing for nyc. 95% all snow. What are these people looking at? :arrowhead:

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This was the motto at this time frame before our last event, which in some aspects it was, however the end result was an overall snowier scenario for all excpet for the immediate coastal locations.

We made up for that with heavier snowfall rates-- pretty much everyone but the extreme eastern end of LI had over a foot.

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The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads.

I didn't see any bad analysis at all, everybody acknowledged that the GFS is snow to sleet. There was a good discussion on how mid level warm air advection is almost always underforecast, especially with the positioning of the mid level centers as the GFS advertises.

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