patrick05 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i'm sorry but what is a SWFE?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Tombo do you have any QPF numbers yet? My guess is the Euro spells big time flooding concerns in the NYC metro. yea its 1.25-1.5 of qpf... .25 of that is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i'm sorry but what is a SWFE?? SouthWest Flow Event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How does this track so far NW with those high pressures there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the gfs is really cold for the storm... http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 how much snow does the EURO show for just NW of HPN? prob about 3-5 then over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ok that aint terrible considering I have about 70 inches in winter!! and also the EURO seems to be the worst of all the models solutions at this time. prob about 3-5 then over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Tombo do you have any QPF numbers yet? My guess is the Euro spells big time flooding concerns in the NYC metro. You always do this. Please stop bringing up flooding. It's like you're the incessant voice of doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the gfs is really cold for the storm... http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Kjfk.txt Watch it, that is the raw model output. Try looking at the GFS MOS, which accounts for more boundary layer conditions and it better suited to 2m Temps and winds. That sort of thing. The raw data is often 3-8 degrees too high or too low than even the 6 hr verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Watch it, that is the raw model output. Try looking at the GFS MOS, which accounts for more boundary layer conditions and it better suited to 2m Temps and winds. That sort of thing. The raw data is often 3-8 degrees too high or too low than even the 6 hr verification. And MOS is also heavily waited toward climo +3 days out and usually way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea its 1.25-1.5 of qpf... .25 of that is frozen. probably on the cusp then of a major flood problem....depending on how much falls in the upper portions of the Passaic River basin. Big problems in CT also. Also I know flooding is not what people want to here but its a fact of life, all that wonderfull white stuff has to go somewhere when it eventually melts. I'm not the voice of doom just stating the possabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 probably on the cusp then of a major flood problem then....depending on how much falls in the upper portions of the Passaic River basin. Big problems in CT also. I know its a concern but can you please stop with floods everytime there is a new storm. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know its a concern but can you please stop with floods everytime there is a new storm. Rossi It will be a concern when some other model shows it, right now the euro is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is a classic NW of the cities storm with more ice than snow impacting I-95. Good. That's exactly what we want. Let's hope it still shows the same scenario inside of 24 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 heres the jma and the corresponding 850 temps with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good. That's exactly what we want. Let's hope it still shows the same scenario inside of 24 hours from the event. This was the motto at this time frame before our last event, which in some aspects it was, however the end result was an overall snowier scenario for all excpet for the immediate coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good. That's exactly what we want. Let's hope it still shows the same scenario inside of 24 hours from the event. The problem is the GFS is NOT a classic NW of the cities snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the gfs is really cold for the storm... http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Kjfk.txt There is something wrong with that text output. Important differences throughout but for a real quick view, compare the difference at 180 hours (2/5 0z) between LGA and OKX: LGA: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Klga.txt OKX: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kokx.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The problem is the GFS is NOT a classic NW of the cities snowstorm. The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I have been watching the euro all year. It likes to overphase storms in this range no doubt, hence the cutter. Remember last storm, euro was saying N and W get snow and cities get rain.. There has been many other examples as well of the euro overamplifying storms in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 heres the ggem for the storms, 6 hr plots with 850 temps http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads. yep. soundings shows all snow all the way out to upton long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads. strongly agree, all layers of the column are mainly below freezing for nyc. 95% all snow. What are these people looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 euro has another coastal snowstorm hr 228-240...then the pv drops into minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads. I did the nyc sounding and analysis a few pages back and noted this. The incorrect analysis is after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads. which is why we greatly appreciate when you guys step in with your input!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 strongly agree, all layers of the column are mainly below freezing for nyc. 95% all snow. What are these people looking at? Some are looking at the 850 low position and saying those sub freezing soundings don't make sense in that scenario. Its seems an approporiate analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This was the motto at this time frame before our last event, which in some aspects it was, however the end result was an overall snowier scenario for all excpet for the immediate coastal locations. We made up for that with heavier snowfall rates-- pretty much everyone but the extreme eastern end of LI had over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 strongly agree, all layers of the column are mainly below freezing for nyc. 95% all snow. What are these people looking at? theyre obsessed with 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is 90-100% snow in the big cities, maybe mixed with some sleet at the height of the storm. There is some really bad analysis in these threads. I didn't see any bad analysis at all, everybody acknowledged that the GFS is snow to sleet. There was a good discussion on how mid level warm air advection is almost always underforecast, especially with the positioning of the mid level centers as the GFS advertises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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