2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential

[am19psu]

When is the last time LC was right?

Rossi

He made the greatest call in the history of tropical meteorology in 2010

/rainstorm'd

(Actually, he forecasted 12/7/2 with no landfalls -- he was a luckbox on the last part, it was nearly over in June)

[TheTrials]

not sold on that GFS setup, yet. Perhaps the PV is suppresive enough to keep the SW to the south, but again we have a situation with a HP sliding off the coast and while we lucked out this week, its hard to do it once let alone twice in a week. However, given seasonal trends, don't be against this solution.

[_AR_]

There's no sharp cutoff this time, though, so areas north and west of the Lehigh Valley get more this time.

Until that confluence starts showing up stronger.

[TheTrials]

12Z Ukmet says chicago lakes cutter and ggem is coming in very amped up, so here we go again.

[MJO812]

12Z Ukmet says chicago lakes cutter, so here we go again.

It was a glc at 0z.

[IsentropicLift]

You just get the feeling this year that whatever can go right in order to make it snow along the coast and whatever can go wrong to shaft the interior has and will continue to happen. Any analogs for this setup?

[Radders]

12Z GFS ensembles appear to keep this close to the op solution - no sign of a glc yet. Let's see what the Euro has to say.

[Atlas]

GGEM runs it inland, but it has a high in sick position...Ice?

[pazzo83]

You have to be ****ing kidding me.

[SnoSki14]

I doubt we see a GLC, there is too much cold air around and widespread high pressure far enough to prevent that from happening. The worst case would probably be an ice storm as a secondary would likely try to develop further east due to the presence of cold high pressure.

[TheTrials]

ggem looks like an ice signal. Problem with PV over eastern canada is that it screams amplification like this. GFS has a suppressed bias so we need to keep an eye on it.

[TheTrials]

I doubt we see a GLC, there is too much cold air around and widespread high pressure far enough to prevent that from happening. The worst case would probably be an ice storm as a secondary would likely try to develop further east due to the presence of cold high pressure.

You gotta keep the high in place or bring in some other kind of confluent flow otherwise it will cut all it wants.

[rossi]

ggem looks like an ice signal. Problem with PV over eastern canada is that it screams amplification like this. GFS has a suppressed bias so we need to keep an eye on it.

After this past storm which 5 days out us with 3 inches of rain - I am pretty sure that we will have a coastal once again or completely surpressed. A cutter is very unlikely.

Rossi

[TheTrials]

If the warmer solutions played out, and that is a big if, we are going to have to worry about sever flooding in and around the nyc metro area. Big if.

[pazzo83]

After this past storm which 5 days out us with 3 inches of rain - I am pretty sure that we will have a coastal once again or completely surpressed. A cutter is very unlikely.

Rossi

Yep, seasonal trends this year argue against the cutter. It just wants to snow in the PHL (and now really we are pulling DC into the mix)-BOS corridor this year, so I am putting my money on that.

[SnoSki14]

Well I would like to see how it plays out. I mean most of us were convinced that yesterday's storm would be mostly rain in the exact same future time frame as this upcoming storm. I don't buy anything at this point, whether it shows a rainstorm/icestorm/ or snowstorm.

[IsentropicLift]

Do I need to remind everyone that the GGEM was on the western side of the spread the whole time with the last event? It insisted on an Apps runner until about two days out.

On a side note, its pretty fair to say the snowpack across the area is quite extensive and if you live in a flood prone area all that white stuff we love is like stacks of dynamite wating for a 2-3" rainstorm to blowup. Probably just a matter of time unless we manage to sqeek out an extended period of time without precip and slowly moderating temps.

[pazzo83]

Do I need to remind everyone that the GGEM was on the western side of the spread the whole time with the last event? It insisted on an Apps runner until about two days out.

Exactly, I think the question at this point this winter is, why WON'T we have another I-95 snowstorm?

[SnoSki14]

The GGEM is pretty scary though, that's a lot of rain and warm temps over a huge snow cover, not to mention a frozen ground. It's concerning but I'm hoping things change which they probably will, this event is nearly a week out so we'll see constant model shifts. We'll probably see major run to run changes, I wouldn't be surprised to see models go from a GLC to a coastal in one run. It's all about the phasing once again, if it's more progressive like it has been, then we should be fine. Then again, with a +NAO, these setups will be tricky.

[pazzo83]

The GGEM is pretty scary though, that's a lot of rain and warm temps over a huge snow cover, not to mention a frozen ground. It's concerning but I'm hoping things change which they probably will, this event is nearly a week out so we'll see constant model shifts. We'll probably see major run to run changes, I wouldn't be surprised to see models go from a GLC to a coastal in one run. It's all about the phasing once again, if it's more progressive like it has been, then we should be fine. Then again, with a +NAO, these setups will be tricky.

Some of the mets in the Mid-Atlantic forum are thinking against the cutter as well, citing a huge PV and mass of cold air over Hudson Bay that would prohibit any sort of GLC.

[TheTrials]

here are the individual GEFS. One cuts, some suppressed, some redevelop, and a few hits, exactly what one would expect this far out.

[rossi]

The GGEM is pretty scary though, that's a lot of rain and warm temps over a huge snow cover, not to mention a frozen ground. It's concerning but I'm hoping things change which they probably will, this event is nearly a week out so we'll see constant model shifts. We'll probably see major run to run changes, I wouldn't be surprised to see models go from a GLC to a coastal in one run. It's all about the phasing once again, if it's more progressive like it has been, then we should be fine. Then again, with a +NAO, these setups will be tricky.

I thiink the Gem is usually wrong until we get to within 48 hours and secondly and more important yesterdays storm will play a major role once we see if it forms a 50/50.

Rossi

[Zelocita Weather]

here are the individual GEFS. Some cut, some suppressed a few hits, exactly what one would expect this far out.

Only one cut out of the bunch..Ill take those odds.

[TheTrials]

Only one cut out of the bunch..Ill take those odds.

true, a few redevelopments that have a primary going west, but you are right, only one real cutter. Good sign and it looks like several have another high building in in banana type fashion. I have amended my original post.

[blizzardof09]

Remember though the ggem hasn't been a very good model at all this year and it really can't be trusted. Look how long it took for it to get out of the appalachian cutter idea. The euro/gfs/rgem are the way to go right now as they have been the better models to go with this season.

[CooL]

Remember though the ggem hasn't been a very good model at all this year and it really can't be trusted. Look how long it took for it to get out of the appalachian cutter idea. The euro/gfs/rgem are the way to go right now as they have been the better models to go with this season.

the ggem being so far west is probably a good sign. One thing is for sure, it may be back to its overphasing bias after how it handled last storm. I like where we stand on this one but lets get the clippers out of the way first. Euro in 20 mins

[EasternLI]

Well we have seen numerous instances this year where the models are having such a difficult time....The fact that the models are showing some sort of storm forming is good enough for me for now....If the rest of this winter is any indication though....this one will be a nor'easter also.

PS- just look at what this last "rainstorm" just did.....

[isnice]

Do I need to remind everyone that the GGEM was on the western side of the spread the whole time with the last event? It insisted on an Apps runner until about two days out.

On a side note, its pretty fair to say the snowpack across the area is quite extensive and if you live in a flood prone area all that white stuff we love is like stacks of dynamite wating for a 2-3" rainstorm to blowup. Probably just a matter of time unless we manage to sqeek out an extended period of time without precip and slowly moderating temps.

STOP. It cost us $20,000 to redo our basement last year after flooding. We're not doing it again.

[SACRUS]

Well we have seen numerous instances this year where the models are having such a difficult time....The fact that the models are showing some sort of storm forming is good enough for me for now....If the rest of this winter is any indication though....this one will be a nor'easter also.

PS- just look at what this last "rainstorm" just did.....

One of the better east coast storm experts talks about this years guidance and the trouble forecasting these storms.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/at_weather_expo_top_snowstorm.html

[earthlight]

Without the block, we will again need a well timed high pressure. It could be an overrunning event if the high is there. If not, it could easily become a SWFE with a changeover...or could cut into the lakes depending on the shortwave's amplification.

Still lots of options on the table IRT the next week.