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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Looks a lot like the KNYC sounding. You would stay all snow by the skin of your teeth. I agree with you about the mid level warth, but do you remember the event in December 2008? Very similar setup with the -EPO. I think NYC and around your area pulled out 7 inches.

I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one?

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I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one?

not really, because its not dynamics at play, its just sick WAA with a cold dome. There won't be banding so the VV's won't be through the roof to cool the column.

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I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one?

Was that the Dec 19/20th event (2008)? 0.88 liquid with about 4.5 - 5" snow in EWR

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I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one?

We had an SWFE late Feb 2008 I believe, when we got 6-8 inches of surprise snow because of heavy rates.

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We had an SWFE late Feb 2008 I believe, when we got 6-8 inches of surprise snow because of heavy rates.

Yes the saving grace for that non winter. That and 2 or 3 inches a few days prior that were of course washed away the following morning. Man winters can suck really bad sometimes we need to cherish these years while we're still experiencing them!

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Euro solution at 12z is more what you would expect with a SWFE but this model has been a mess just like all the others at this range. Also, all this energy is coming out of the SW and this model has issues with that. Probably throw the ggem, gfs, and emc into a blender if you wanna make a call this far out.

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Yes the saving grace for that non winter. That and 2 or 3 inches a few days prior that were of course washed away the following morning. Man winters can suck really bad sometimes we need to cherish these years while we're still experiencing them!

Yeah, I dont even know what to compare this winter to. If it keeps going like this, it will leave 1995-96 far behind!

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It really doesn't matter honestly; I can assure you all that this solution will change and several times I might add. Especially this winter, we can't excited or saddened by anything shown on the models even 24 hours out let alone 5 days.

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Another note, and this could just be my snow goggles or the lack of sleep from all the tracking, but the Euro failed miserable with the December 2008 event, consitently tracking the surface low too far N and W and failing to recognize the utter dominance of the EPO and the confluent flow over Canada. The NAM and GFS handled it much better with the NAM really kicking butt.

Just something to keep in mind, and probably a little too hopeful.

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