tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the high pressure on the euro is unbelievable at hr 96 compared to last nights run...plus 1040 high over upstate ny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks a lot like the KNYC sounding. You would stay all snow by the skin of your teeth. I agree with you about the mid level warth, but do you remember the event in December 2008? Very similar setup with the -EPO. I think NYC and around your area pulled out 7 inches. I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Visual: That is one of the more extreme QPF maps I've seen on the ensemble in a while. A very strong signal for a juicy system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 102 has a sub 1008 low ov sw ark...overunning lgt precip is over pa, nj,del nyc and up to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one? not really, because its not dynamics at play, its just sick WAA with a cold dome. There won't be banding so the VV's won't be through the roof to cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one? Was that the Dec 19/20th event (2008)? 0.88 liquid with about 4.5 - 5" snow in EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the high pressure on the euro is unbelievable at hr 96 compared to last nights run...plus 1040 high over upstate ny.. Maybe the Euro is finally picking up on how awesome this setup could possibly be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 102 has a sub 1008 low ov sw ark...overunning lgt precip is over pa, nj,del nyc and up to nyc thanks. Sounds similar to the ggem placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was just going to mention that event. We got a thump of snow before changing to a wintry mix and then shutting off. Btw, do heavy precip rates play any role in thwarting off changeovers in SWFE, especially in borderline situations such as this one? We had an SWFE late Feb 2008 I believe, when we got 6-8 inches of surprise snow because of heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 108 has a 1008 low in east central ark...still a 1036 high over upstate ny.....overunning still occuring...but the 850s are flying north fast.. just past dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 114 has a sub 1004 low in southern illinois still lgt precip going on...850s just south of phl.....1032 banana high across the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Was that the Dec 19/20th event (2008)? 0.88 liquid with about 4.5 - 5" snow in EWR Yes that's the one. accumulations ranged from 4-10 inches across the area from south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro is terrible...rain south of I-78 and freezing rain between I-80 and I-78 at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 philly to about quakertown switch to rain at 120hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 120 sub 1004 low just se of indy.... frz line goes from nyc to along or just south of i78...south of there is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We had an SWFE late Feb 2008 I believe, when we got 6-8 inches of surprise snow because of heavy rates. Yes the saving grace for that non winter. That and 2 or 3 inches a few days prior that were of course washed away the following morning. Man winters can suck really bad sometimes we need to cherish these years while we're still experiencing them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The surface low did trend east from 0z though, for something positive from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yes that's the one. accumulations ranged from 4-10 inches across the area from south to north. Personally, I thought the one on Feb 22, 2008 was much better 8 inches vs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro solution at 12z is more what you would expect with a SWFE but this model has been a mess just like all the others at this range. Also, all this energy is coming out of the SW and this model has issues with that. Probably throw the ggem, gfs, and emc into a blender if you wanna make a call this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 126 sub 1004 low over youngstown oh...heavy rainsouth of a line hfd to just north of hpn to avp then along northern pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yes the saving grace for that non winter. That and 2 or 3 inches a few days prior that were of course washed away the following morning. Man winters can suck really bad sometimes we need to cherish these years while we're still experiencing them! Yeah, I dont even know what to compare this winter to. If it keeps going like this, it will leave 1995-96 far behind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does the 12z Euro show significant freezing rain north and west of I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 132 lgt rain over all of pa...mod rain nyc..hvy rain boston...with a 1000mb low over bradford pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does the 12z Euro show significant freezing rain north and west of I-95? Sounds like you'd have to be near AVP according to Tom's PBP. But it's the Euro at this range, and even the GGEM looked better. Could be a red flag at the Euro's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It really doesn't matter honestly; I can assure you all that this solution will change and several times I might add. Especially this winter, we can't excited or saddened by anything shown on the models even 24 hours out let alone 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 per this run nyc gets 1-2 inches of snow then over to hvy rain...phl is about the same over to hvy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does the 12z Euro show significant freezing rain north and west of I-95? no, everyone goes over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EURO is the perfect example of how this set up is fragile and can go wrong. Basically the worst-case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Another note, and this could just be my snow goggles or the lack of sleep from all the tracking, but the Euro failed miserable with the December 2008 event, consitently tracking the surface low too far N and W and failing to recognize the utter dominance of the EPO and the confluent flow over Canada. The NAM and GFS handled it much better with the NAM really kicking butt. Just something to keep in mind, and probably a little too hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Tombo do you have any QPF numbers yet? My guess is the Euro spells big time flooding concerns in the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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