Guest Patrick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 *Cue Earthlight with the Mother of God pic* This solution is somewhat suspect, but I guess that's what happens when you leave the main s/w in the sw and just keep sending pieces of energy eastward... Well that's interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Strong signals for an overrunning event, which is of particular interest to me since I currently am not benefiting from the coastal systems. The old adage of the "low attacking the high" could be in play with this system, similar to powerful events like PDII or '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 probably a lot of mixed solutions in that mean...including lakes cutters with the amount of precip the mean is depicting in just looking at the individual ens mslp...majority of the members are se of the op. A couple are pretty far nw, which is skewing it a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 in just looking at the individual ens mslp...majority of the members are se of the op. A couple are pretty far nw, which is skewing it a little. Majority se missing us? Or still giving us a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This threat is looking a lot better for us than the last one did at this timeframe. Also, the airmass is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That is a mighty powerful High being depicted coming into the Northern Plains. 1058-1060? Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Majority se missing us? Or still giving us a hit? majority se of the operational, sliding it through wv and va, not ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 120 ggem hr 144 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like the GGEM followed the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z gfs ens mean is way further se...takes the storm to central tn then to southern wv at which it develops a 2ndry low off se va coast which slides northeast over the bm Hmm I think I just foreshadowed this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ggem looking MUCH better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean is very encouraging for this area. IIRC, the GFS and Euro ensembles did quite well with the track and temperature profile from the last storm. Let's see if the Euro OP and ensembles are close to this. If so, things could really start to get exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 120 ggem hr 144 ggem i would love to see the 132hr maps...even the GGEM is cold for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Any chance of the main low cutting off on future runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a very fragile setup here. We need just the right amount of energy to eject from the SW to get a storm. Considering the way things have threaded the needle so far this year, though, I wouldn't bet on anything but a major snow/ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a very fragile setup here. We need just the right amount of energy to eject from the SW to get a storm. Considering the way things have threaded the needle so far this year, though, I wouldn't bet on anything but a major snow/ice storm. We needed a minor miracle on the last storm, it went against most logical thinking ; this is the kind of year it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 its the winter of 2010-2011, if its wants to snow, it will. GGEM is def. colder and shows the redevelopment which makes sense given the primary is getting its ass kicked by the confluent flow to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KLGA coolwx profile which is like bufkit. Looks like Laguardia even stays snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Even eh? It looks like it might stay all snow all the way down to C NJ. If we go by snowiest 365 year periods, this might just get NYC to 100"! (Feb 10, 2010 to Feb 10 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Individual GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 check out this mess.. 12GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the ggem track is actually further se than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Check out the GEFS members showing a new HP up in Canada, those are the members which are furher SE than the OP Once again the endless parade of HP's are throwing out all the regular Nina rules. -EPO ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How well has the GEFS performed 5 days out this winter? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Wow almost every one of those ensemble members is an awesome hit. No real Nw solutions, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How well has the GEFS performed 5 days out this winter? D Very well imho. They have called BS to the OP several times and have been fantastic with their handling of the HP's up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Very well imho. They have called BS to the OP several times and have been fantastic with their handling of the HP's up in Canada. That's encouraging. These solutions with very little wiggle room appear to be ALL about high pressure placement to our north and even west. If they are modeled correctly, we have a better chance with staying all frozen. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 all snow even on eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KHPN has some sick bufkit numbers. 10-15 inches depending on the algorithm almost entirely WAA induced. No banding on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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