tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 where are the 700 and 850 lows from 126-132 for the 12z GFS? 700 lows hr 126 nw ohio hr 129 cleveland hr 132 erie 850 low hr 126 central oh hr 129 pitt hr 132 nw pa, between erie and pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There is no precip after hour 132. Before that its almost all snow for cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 700 lows hr 126 nw ohio hr 129 cleveland hr 132 erie 850 low hr 126 central oh hr 129 pitt hr 132 nw pa, between erie and pitt That's ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here is the next available sounding 12Z next Thursday. Gets very cold for NYC and still snowing. Thread, meet needle, but they do it. This winter, nothing surprises me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What are the chances that this thing bombs out and goes colder?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 look how cold the surface temps are. it's going to take a long time to erode the low lovel cold air even if the primary cuts west of us This sounding is for hour 132. There is zero precip left after that. Put the sounding up for 120 and 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What a mess! Cold air will be there at the start, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just amazing how the slightest shift south would give the cities another major mecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When in doubt, sound it out. Here is KNYC sounding at Next Wed 7PM Its still snow, but barely. However, notice the wind shift taking place as coastal takes over? That will likely save the city of any big warm up before precip ends. The warm nose is coming in at 800-850mb this run. At the very least, look out for sleet and frerezing rain given how bitterly cold the sfc is. This seems to me like an event where we thump snow for 75% of the storm, then go to sleet and then end it as very light rain/drizzle. This storm is heading into a very cold air dome, which suggests to me it won't be a warm rainy cutter. I could see a reflection heading into the Ohio Valley, but I think it tries to redevelop on the coast. It'll take a huge phase for it to blow through all this ridging/cold air at our latitude. New England is likely better for all snow, but we get swiped good before we switch over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This winter, the NJ coastal waters seem to be a minefield where things blow up. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Look at the 12z Thursday sounding for NYC, it gets very cold and column is saturated, its snowing. Before that, yeah, probably some pingers but it dumps good and the sounding is still probably snow at its warmest, just barely. EDIT 850 temp at the height of the warm nose at NYC is -.1 with dp of -.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Look at the 12z Thursday sounding for NYC, it gets very cold and column is saturated, its snowing. Before that, yeah, probably some pingers but it dumps good and the sounding is still probably snow at its warmest, just barely. EDIT 850 temp at the height of the warm nose at NYC is -.1 with dp of -.6. It's always very dangerous when the 850 low is northwest of you. Our best shot at ALL snow is that feature trending south, or redeveloping quicker. But most of the storm is probably snow anyway due to the amount of cold that has to be eaten up first by the warm advection. Unless there's a huge phased Midwest bomb, we're probably good for at least a moderate dumping over to sleet and maybe freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's always very dangerous when the 850 low is northwest of you. Our best shot at ALL snow is that feature trending south, or redeveloping quicker. But most of the storm is probably snow anyway due to the amount of cold that has to be eaten up first by the warm advection. Unless there's a huge phased Midwest bomb, we're probably good for at least a moderate dumping over to sleet and maybe freezing rain. Well, for NYC which is probably the dividing line right now, 850 low redevelops at the last minute to save the day. As I said, this is best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I sincerely believe models will begin trending to a major east coast ice storm. The cold air mass is just too entrenched in the area. High pressure to the north and the banana high extending to the northwest will provide enough confluent blocking to keep this partially phased monster from cutting through Detroit. In most situations, an 850mb and 700mb low track would argue against anything but rain. However, the fact that it will be early February with an arctic airmass entrenched in the area thanks to these clippers will provide enough cold air for this to be ice. That high leaving the coast concerns me, as if its too fast to leave that will surge warm air into the area, forcing the low further west with more rain. I know ice storms are extremely dangerous but they are by far my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, for NYC which is probably the dividing line right now, 850 low redevelops at the last minute to save the day. As I said, this is best case scenario. Even if it didn't the majority of the precipitation would have already fallen as the WAA was working on the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Even if it didn't the majority of the precipitation would have already fallen as the WAA was working on the upper levels. Exactly. Nothing is left after hour 132. Precip is from 114-132, when all levels are plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I sincerely believe models will begin trending to a major east coast ice storm. The cold air mass is just too entrenched in the area. High pressure to the north and the banana high extending to the northwest will provide enough confluent blocking to keep this partially phased monster from cutting through Detroit. In most situations, an 850mb and 700mb low track would argue against anything but rain. However, the fact that it will be early February with an arctic airmass entrenched in the area thanks to these clippers will provide enough cold air for this to be ice. That high leaving the coast concerns me, as if its too fast to leave that will surge warm air into the area, forcing the low further west with more rain. I know ice storms are extremely dangerous but they are by far my favorite. Picture the primary trcking further to the south and east and transferring earlier near the VA coast, result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So can someone clear up how much of that would be snow for SE PA? The 850 line goes north of us while the freezing line is plenty south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's always very dangerous when the 850 low is northwest of you. Our best shot at ALL snow is that feature trending south, or redeveloping quicker. But most of the storm is probably snow anyway due to the amount of cold that has to be eaten up first by the warm advection. Unless there's a huge phased Midwest bomb, we're probably good for at least a moderate dumping over to sleet and maybe freezing rain. After the last storm, I'd be extremely skeptical of any NON SNOW SCENARIO lol. If it was the 80s or early 90s, my thoughts would be reversed. Hopefully after this winter, the models will be more accustomed to dealing with an extreme winter like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just look at how well the waa snows played out wednesday. And with that sweet high up north, I think it would overperform again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know its big time fantasy land and a tad off topic but when you look at the end of this GFS run, the SE ridge builds in and then slides off to the east. Then at hr 384 things look very interesting. Again, I know its fantasy land but good signs that we will remain in our active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Exactly. Nothing is left after hour 132. Precip is from 114-132, when all levels are plenty cold. there is a drop of precip after those hours, and the soundings say snow, so its a win win for KNYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z gfs ens mean is way further se...takes the storm to central tn then to southern wv at which it develops a 2ndry low off se va coast which slides northeast over the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ens mean has 1-1.5 accum qpf for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z gfs ens mean is way further se...takes the storm to central tn then to southern wv at which it develops a 2ndry low off se va coast which slides northeast over the bm Visual: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z gfs ens mean is way further se...takes the storm to central tn then to southern wv at which it develops a 2ndry low off se va coast which slides northeast over the bm that is ideal for this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well that's interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 probably a lot of mixed solutions in that mean...including lakes cutters with the amount of precip the mean is depicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Look at the Pv right on the canada border. You'd think that mean would be the right track with the Pv basically sitting right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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