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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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When in doubt, sound it out. Here is KNYC sounding at Next Wed 7PM

Its still snow, but barely. However, notice the wind shift taking place as coastal takes over? That will likely save the city of any big warm up before precip ends.

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The warm nose is coming in at 800-850mb this run. At the very least, look out for sleet and frerezing rain given how bitterly cold the sfc is.

This seems to me like an event where we thump snow for 75% of the storm, then go to sleet and then end it as very light rain/drizzle. This storm is heading into a very cold air dome, which suggests to me it won't be a warm rainy cutter. I could see a reflection heading into the Ohio Valley, but I think it tries to redevelop on the coast. It'll take a huge phase for it to blow through all this ridging/cold air at our latitude. New England is likely better for all snow, but we get swiped good before we switch over.

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Look at the 12z Thursday sounding for NYC, it gets very cold and column is saturated, its snowing. Before that, yeah, probably some pingers but it dumps good and the sounding is still probably snow at its warmest, just barely.

EDIT 850 temp at the height of the warm nose at NYC is -.1 with dp of -.6.

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Look at the 12z Thursday sounding for NYC, it gets very cold and column is saturated, its snowing. Before that, yeah, probably some pingers but it dumps good and the sounding is still probably snow at its warmest, just barely.

EDIT 850 temp at the height of the warm nose at NYC is -.1 with dp of -.6.

It's always very dangerous when the 850 low is northwest of you. Our best shot at ALL snow is that feature trending south, or redeveloping quicker. But most of the storm is probably snow anyway due to the amount of cold that has to be eaten up first by the warm advection.

Unless there's a huge phased Midwest bomb, we're probably good for at least a moderate dumping over to sleet and maybe freezing rain.

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It's always very dangerous when the 850 low is northwest of you. Our best shot at ALL snow is that feature trending south, or redeveloping quicker. But most of the storm is probably snow anyway due to the amount of cold that has to be eaten up first by the warm advection.

Unless there's a huge phased Midwest bomb, we're probably good for at least a moderate dumping over to sleet and maybe freezing rain.

Well, for NYC which is probably the dividing line right now, 850 low redevelops at the last minute to save the day. As I said, this is best case scenario.

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I sincerely believe models will begin trending to a major east coast ice storm. The cold air mass is just too entrenched in the area. High pressure to the north and the banana high extending to the northwest will provide enough confluent blocking to keep this partially phased monster from cutting through Detroit. In most situations, an 850mb and 700mb low track would argue against anything but rain. However, the fact that it will be early February with an arctic airmass entrenched in the area thanks to these clippers will provide enough cold air for this to be ice. That high leaving the coast concerns me, as if its too fast to leave that will surge warm air into the area, forcing the low further west with more rain.

I know ice storms are extremely dangerous but they are by far my favorite.

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Well, for NYC which is probably the dividing line right now, 850 low redevelops at the last minute to save the day. As I said, this is best case scenario.

Even if it didn't the majority of the precipitation would have already fallen as the WAA was working on the upper levels.

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I sincerely believe models will begin trending to a major east coast ice storm. The cold air mass is just too entrenched in the area. High pressure to the north and the banana high extending to the northwest will provide enough confluent blocking to keep this partially phased monster from cutting through Detroit. In most situations, an 850mb and 700mb low track would argue against anything but rain. However, the fact that it will be early February with an arctic airmass entrenched in the area thanks to these clippers will provide enough cold air for this to be ice. That high leaving the coast concerns me, as if its too fast to leave that will surge warm air into the area, forcing the low further west with more rain.

I know ice storms are extremely dangerous but they are by far my favorite.

Picture the primary trcking further to the south and east and transferring earlier near the VA coast, result?

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It's always very dangerous when the 850 low is northwest of you. Our best shot at ALL snow is that feature trending south, or redeveloping quicker. But most of the storm is probably snow anyway due to the amount of cold that has to be eaten up first by the warm advection.

Unless there's a huge phased Midwest bomb, we're probably good for at least a moderate dumping over to sleet and maybe freezing rain.

After the last storm, I'd be extremely skeptical of any NON SNOW SCENARIO lol. If it was the 80s or early 90s, my thoughts would be reversed. Hopefully after this winter, the models will be more accustomed to dealing with an extreme winter like this.

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