rossi Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 While we discuss 2/1 - did anyone check out approaching light snow and enhancement ove MD? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think just like last week the models are undrplaying the cold in place and there are to many disturbances in the jet stream that are causing the models to go west. By Sunday or Monday we will be back to mostly snow event when the samplings are much better. Rossi I know we all want the solution you outline, but honestly, I'm not seeing it this time. The only way I see mostly snow is if the s/w gets sheared out big time, and we get a light to moderate dumping. if it doesn't get sheared and remains intact, or if the northern stream is stronger, or if the northern stream is faster, or if the SE ridge asserts itself, then it's snow to mix to rain in various combos. To many things can go wrong this time, and aspects of these issues are being modeled on various runs. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know we all want the solution you outline, but honestly, I'm not seeing it this time. The only way I see mostly snow is if the s/w gets sheared out big time, and we get a light to moderate dumping. if it doesn't get sheared and remains intact, or if the northern stream is stronger, or if the northern stream is faster, or if the SE ridge asserts itself, then it's snow to mix to rain in various combos. To many things can go wrong this time, and aspects of these issues are being modeled on various runs. JMHO Were you seeing it last week 2 days before the storm where every model but the GFS was giving us a rain event? This is a west to east event. We don't have a huge noreaster coming up from the gulf bringing with in a ton of warm air. This could easily slide right through us giving us a nice thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 -EPO will be more dominant than the -PNA, it always is. I like what Zelocita said, that is a good early early first call. +1 to him. It could be, the cold has been stronger than modeled and the seasonal trend is a result of either exceptional timing or exceptional blocking. I'd prefer the overrunning scenario and a system that cuts to a point then transfers for a miller b scenario. Watch the cold for early week I think its under done like others said our areas coudl be dealing with an ice threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Were you seeing it last week 2 days before the storm where every model but the GFS was giving us a rain event? This is a west to east event. We don't have a huge noreaster coming up from the gulf bringing with in a ton of warm air. This could easily slide right through us giving us a nice thump of snow. I saw a snow storm early this week. I know that's easy to say now, but none of my posts discounted a snow event. If the low heads west to east south of us, then I agree with you completely on a snow dump. However, there are aspects on several models that show a primary to secondary system upcoming. If that is true, and I believe it is, then we need to look for where the primary dies and where the secondary develops for snow/sleet/zr/rain. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't believe this heads straight across the country ENE and out to sea. The PV will have a big say in all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No real significant changes between 6z and 12z, maybe a little ENE with the primary and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 At 129 the isobars make a heart shape. Hope its not foreshadowing Feb 14 2007 typce ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This looks really close to a bad icestorm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Loos like a huge thump of snow to ice for PHL to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 2m 32 line's furthest north approach is Philly. 850 0*C line gets close to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is a classic NW of the cities storm with more ice than snow impacting I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GFS That's a snow to ice signature. The primary is still dominant, and is already at Philly's latitude. East of the apps will be awash up above with warmth after a snow dump. Heck, even C-PA will get ice from this. * based on this graghic * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This looks really close to a bad icestorm for the area. Doesn't look like rain, from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 PHL has an epic ice storm per this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 850's close to NY but I believe it snows from C. NJ on north and then 850 line drops south after that. Looks liek mostly heavy snow with some ice possible but its way to far away to make a judgement. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 PHL has an epic ice storm per this run.. Verbtaim 12z GFS is 85% Snow, 15% Mix/Ice for NYC / N NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 As others have mentioned -- this is your classic 1993-94 winter storm. Lots of ice along I-95, heavy snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When you guys say ice do you mean sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 PHL has an epic ice storm per this run.. The signal is there and watch the cold early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When in doubt, sound it out. Here is KNYC sounding at Next Wed 7PM Its still snow, but barely. However, notice the wind shift taking place as coastal takes over? That will likely save the city of any big warm up before precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 where are the 700 and 850 lows from 126-132 for the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I would guess that the GFS has it right now. Over the weekend it will lead us astray. Then, it will come back to this set up. IMHO. 850's close to NY but I believe it snows from C. NJ on north and then 850 line drops south after that. Looks liek mostly heavy snow with some ice possible but its way to far away to make a judgement. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When in doubt, sound it out. Here is KNYC sounding at Next Wed 7PM Its still snow, but barely. However, notice the wind shift taking place as coastal takes over? That will likely save the city of any big warm up before precip ends. look how cold the surface temps are. it's going to take a long time to erode the low lovel cold air even if the primary cuts west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 PHL has an epic ice storm per this run.. yea, they change over at hr 126 after about 6-8 inches of snow over to sleet and freezing rain, then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 As others have mentioned -- this is your classic 1993-94 winter storm. Lots of ice along I-95, heavy snow in the interior. I dont think E-W will matter much at all, I think its all about lattitude with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 850 low is in W PA, small closed 129 contour at hr132, SE winds...thus comes the warming up above. 700 low about the same spot. Large closed 282 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The next frame on the GFS sounding for KNYC would be all snow. The 850 and 925 lows are now east of the city with the transfer. IMHO is the best case scenario for NYC. Its very rate to get an 850 to cut so far west and not change over. As I said, it happened in Dec. 2008, another -EPO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When in doubt, sound it out. Here is KNYC sounding at Next Wed 7PM Its still snow, but barely. However, notice the wind shift taking place as coastal takes over? That will likely save the city of any big warm up before precip ends. Agree completely and as we go a few days down the road the cold will be more pronounced on all the models - watch and see- Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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