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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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12Z NAM has a -PNA (trough over the west) and SE ridge on roids, a classic La Nina look. Lets hope its wrong.

Well ,it does look like the PNA is heading downward.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

All the teleconnections are not favorable for our area. We have seen in the past that can we can see snow when things aren't favorable for our area. It should be interesting to see what happens.

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Well ,it does look like the PNA is heading downward.

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif

All the teleconnections are not favorable for our area. We have seen in the past that can we can see snow when things aren't favorable for our area. It should be interesting to see what happens.

Yea but it looks like the PNA will be positive when the storm is happening though in the Feb 2-3 range.

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Let me just say one thing about the 12z NAM

Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 78, notice the strength of the S/W in question dropping down through Idaho.

nam_500_078s.gif

Now compare it to the 06z GFS at hr 84 (same time frame)

gfs_500_084s.gif

Could this lead to a phase in the S/W on future runs? Not sure what that would mean for our region but it bears watching. Of course we all saw how well the NAM performed this past week.

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Let me just say one thing about the 12z NAM

Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 78, notice the strength of the S/W in question dropping down through Idaho.

nam_500_078s.gif

Now compare it to the 06z GFS at hr 84 (same time frame)

gfs_500_084s.gif

Could this lead to a phase in the S/W on future runs? Not sure what that would mean for our region but it bears watching. Of course we all saw how well the NAM performed this past week.

a phase that fast would pump the se ridge even moreso and it would cut.

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we want the flow to split out west and not phase. Big wild card here is the -EPO. December 2008 had a SWFE that looked warm for days until the models picked up on the influence of the -EPO which was sending cold arctic highs down. I beleive NYC picked up 7 inches before turning over to drizzle.

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Let me just say one thing about the 12z NAM

Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 78, notice the strength of the S/W in question dropping down through Idaho.

Now compare it to the 06z GFS at hr 84 (same time frame)

Could this lead to a phase in the S/W on future runs? Not sure what that would mean for our region but it bears watching. Of course we all saw how well the NAM performed this past week.

We need the northern stream weaker and slower. I think. I also note that the PV is stronger on the NAM 12Z.

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So in other words, with the current synoptic setup their is no way to salvage a big coastal? Sounds like our best hope is for a DGEX solution.

Whatever tries to cut/come west (as it certainly will to some extent) it will just hit a brick wall at a certain latitude. Monster snow pack/enourmous pool of arctic air and a wall of fresh highs to the north will not allow a warm cutter all the way up. Very 93-94 indeed.

At this point I would think anyone from BOS-HFD-NY/PA border north is proabably going to get a signficant snow (mayeb some mixing).

From those in between that line and the 40N, could go either way but will probably see some snow (maybe significant), some ice (maybe a lot), and some areas right on the coast could see some rain.

South of 40N I think a lot of ice/rain...

But still 5 days out.

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Whatever tries to cut/come west (as it certainly will to some extent) it will just hit a brick wall at a certain latitude. Monster snow pack/enourmous pool of arctic air and a wall of fresh highs to the north will not allow a warm cutter all the way up. Very 93-94 indeed.

At this point I would think anyone from BOS-HFD-NY/PA border north is proabably going to get a signficant snow (mayeb some mixing).

From those in between that line and the 40N, could go either way but will probably see some snow (maybe significant), some ice (maybe a lot), and some areas right on the coast could see some rain.

South of 40N I think a lot of ice/rain...

But still 5 days out.

if all goes well for us, I see it exactly as you. I still see a chance for a cutter, as PV's are notorious for being mis-modeled at times.

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Just for sh**s and giggles...here is the 06z GEFS probability of > 0.25" of ice in 6 hrs at hr 138.

gens_zip_138m.gif

A serious ice storm around here could be something else. Look at all the snow on the trees/pines, etc. It's nto going anywhere up until this event and heavy ice is sure to snap limbs all over the place --- not to mention the added frozen QPF on top of a huge snow pack. We best hope that the transition from cold to warm is a gradual one --- because a rainstorm on top of all of this could spell some remarkable flooding...

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Ridge is acnhored offshore need it to nudge east with the axis into the west coast. Still loads of cold and with an active storm feed, there is potential for the next week system.

-EPO will be more dominant than the -PNA, it always is. I like what Zelocita said, that is a good early early first call. +1 to him.

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-EPO will be more dominant than the -PNA, it always is. I like what Zelocita said, that is a good early early first call. +1 to him.

I think just like last week the models are undrplaying the cold in place and there are to many disturbances in the jet stream that are causing the models to go west. By Sunday or Monday we will be back to mostly snow event when the samplings are much better.

Rossi

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