MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ice storm signal if I ever seen one... Maybe I can skate on my street this time. The last time the NYC area saw an ice storm warning was February 14.2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 since i see the dgex model has been thrown in. Here is the accum snowfall from it awesome- another 15-20"!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 just looking at the nam at hr 78, looks like if you would extropolate it would be the 6z dgex but further north low and a little warmer.. The northern stream is dropping in at hr 78, but not to the tune of 0z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 since i see the dgex model has been thrown in. Here is the accum snowfall from it Tom, unlike those maps from Raleigh's site, the DGEX doesn't already include snowfall on the ground right? So that would be an additional 15-18"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12Z NAM has a -PNA (trough over the west) and SE ridge on roids, a classic La Nina look. Lets hope its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 John, i believe its the accum snowfall, not snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12Z NAM has a -PNA (trough over the west) and SE ridge on roids, a classic La Nina look. Lets hope its wrong. every model has this... it all depends on how fast the northern stream phases in that determines how much of a se ridge perks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12Z NAM has a -PNA (trough over the west) and SE ridge on roids, a classic La Nina look. Lets hope its wrong. Well ,it does look like the PNA is heading downward. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif All the teleconnections are not favorable for our area. We have seen in the past that can we can see snow when things aren't favorable for our area. It should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 just comparing the 0z euro to the 12z nam at h5...they are pretty close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FWIW, Philly was all snow on the 06z GFS. 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well ,it does look like the PNA is heading downward. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif All the teleconnections are not favorable for our area. We have seen in the past that can we can see snow when things aren't favorable for our area. It should be interesting to see what happens. Yea but it looks like the PNA will be positive when the storm is happening though in the Feb 2-3 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Tom, yes they do look similar. Neither looks particularly favorable for snow in our area. Going to come down to the battle between the SE Ridge and the PV imo. As some have stated, this is more of an icing signature than snow. Let's hope not...we'll have glaciers until May. Very 93-94ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I find it ironic that we were saying this exact same thing 6 days ago for the storm yesterday. Central Park recorded 19 inches. I certainly never believed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Let me just say one thing about the 12z NAM Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 78, notice the strength of the S/W in question dropping down through Idaho. Now compare it to the 06z GFS at hr 84 (same time frame) Could this lead to a phase in the S/W on future runs? Not sure what that would mean for our region but it bears watching. Of course we all saw how well the NAM performed this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 As we saw with the event which just passed, you don't need blocking to get a miller A That wasn't a pure Miller A. It was an A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Let me just say one thing about the 12z NAM Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 78, notice the strength of the S/W in question dropping down through Idaho. Now compare it to the 06z GFS at hr 84 (same time frame) Could this lead to a phase in the S/W on future runs? Not sure what that would mean for our region but it bears watching. Of course we all saw how well the NAM performed this past week. a phase that fast would pump the se ridge even moreso and it would cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we want the flow to split out west and not phase. Big wild card here is the -EPO. December 2008 had a SWFE that looked warm for days until the models picked up on the influence of the -EPO which was sending cold arctic highs down. I beleive NYC picked up 7 inches before turning over to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 a phase that fast would pump the se ridge even moreso and it would cut. So in other words, with the current synoptic setup their is no way to salvage a big coastal? Sounds like our best hope is for a DGEX solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Let me just say one thing about the 12z NAM Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 78, notice the strength of the S/W in question dropping down through Idaho. Now compare it to the 06z GFS at hr 84 (same time frame) Could this lead to a phase in the S/W on future runs? Not sure what that would mean for our region but it bears watching. Of course we all saw how well the NAM performed this past week. We need the northern stream weaker and slower. I think. I also note that the PV is stronger on the NAM 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NAM is honking at a triple phase scenario out West. Welcome -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So in other words, with the current synoptic setup their is no way to salvage a big coastal? Sounds like our best hope is for a DGEX solution. Whatever tries to cut/come west (as it certainly will to some extent) it will just hit a brick wall at a certain latitude. Monster snow pack/enourmous pool of arctic air and a wall of fresh highs to the north will not allow a warm cutter all the way up. Very 93-94 indeed. At this point I would think anyone from BOS-HFD-NY/PA border north is proabably going to get a signficant snow (mayeb some mixing). From those in between that line and the 40N, could go either way but will probably see some snow (maybe significant), some ice (maybe a lot), and some areas right on the coast could see some rain. South of 40N I think a lot of ice/rain... But still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NAM is honking at a triple phase scenario out West. Welcome -PNA? Yeah, that baby would track west of Chicago. So far west, we'd get little rain with our warm air. I guess if that happened, that may be a blessing, as we'd reduce the snow pack without major flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whatever tries to cut/come west (as it certainly will to some extent) it will just hit a brick wall at a certain latitude. Monster snow pack/enourmous pool of arctic air and a wall of fresh highs to the north will not allow a warm cutter all the way up. Very 93-94 indeed. At this point I would think anyone from BOS-HFD-NY/PA border north is proabably going to get a signficant snow (mayeb some mixing). From those in between that line and the 40N, could go either way but will probably see some snow (maybe significant), some ice (maybe a lot), and some areas right on the coast could see some rain. South of 40N I think a lot of ice/rain... But still 5 days out. if all goes well for us, I see it exactly as you. I still see a chance for a cutter, as PV's are notorious for being mis-modeled at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On this site, it shows the PNA will be positive until mid month. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/pna.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just for sh**s and giggles...here is the 06z GEFS probability of > 0.25" of ice in 6 hrs at hr 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just for sh**s and giggles...here is the 06z GEFS probability of > 0.25" of ice in 6 hrs at hr 138. A serious ice storm around here could be something else. Look at all the snow on the trees/pines, etc. It's nto going anywhere up until this event and heavy ice is sure to snap limbs all over the place --- not to mention the added frozen QPF on top of a huge snow pack. We best hope that the transition from cold to warm is a gradual one --- because a rainstorm on top of all of this could spell some remarkable flooding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 On this site, it shows the PNA will be positive until mid month. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/pna.png Ridge is acnhored offshore need it to nudge east with the axis into the west coast. Still loads of cold and with an active storm feed, there is potential for the next week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ridge is acnhored offshore need it to nudge east with the axis into the west coast. Still loads of cold and with an active storm feed, there is potential for the next week system. -EPO will be more dominant than the -PNA, it always is. I like what Zelocita said, that is a good early early first call. +1 to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 -EPO will be more dominant than the -PNA, it always is. I like what Zelocita said, that is a good early early first call. +1 to him. I think just like last week the models are undrplaying the cold in place and there are to many disturbances in the jet stream that are causing the models to go west. By Sunday or Monday we will be back to mostly snow event when the samplings are much better. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What an ominious setup, what do the surface temps look like during the possible ice? Are we talking 20's or 30's? Big difference between freezing rain at 31 and freezing rain at 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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