jconsor Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 One thing to keep in mind regarding the potential storm for mid next week is the longer range models tend to underdo low-level cold air. As the 2nd clipper departs and a confluence zone builds across SE Canada, an arctic high will plunge into the N. Plains with a banana extension toward Quebec, bringing an only slightly modified arctic air mass toward our area. I'm thinking Mon and especially Tue will end up notably colder than current forecasts indicate. In fact, the high temp on Tue may be the coldest for NYC this winter, beating the 24F we saw on Jan 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What would it take to get the h5 low to cut off in a more favorable position than what the 00z Euro had? Here is the 6z GFS at hr 132, am I correct by stating it looks like it might cut off here on future runs? We get a sloppy partially phased positive tilted trough instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Of the globals, I thought the Euro was the best with SLP placement for the last storm. It was too warm with temps, but it had the right idea of low placement. I should add that this setup could be perfect for the starving members of this board, namely C-PA, NE-PA, and S-NY, if the low comes north enough. I find it ironic that we were saying this exact same thing 6 days ago for the storm yesterday. Central Park recorded 19 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Right now this has the look of a cold SWFE. SE Ridge flexing is muscle and the 850 primary going up to the west. With the cold antecedent airmass front end snows are a good bet but someone goes over to freezing rain and then plain rain/drizzle. Lots of time to go here but that SE Ridge is really making its presence felt in typical nina style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What would it take to get the h5 low to cut off in a more favorable position than what the 00z Euro had? Here is the 6z GFS at hr 132, am I correct by stating it looks like it might cut off here on future runs? We get a sloppy partially phased positive tilted trough instead This proves that the 6z GFS was underdoing upper level warm air. With an 850mb in central Ohio, no way this stays all snow anywhere on the east coast. This is a major ice storm in the making, 10x worse than Monday of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It seems like this winter, if the CONUS has a ridge , a trough, and a surface low, somehow it will work out that someone on the east coast will get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mr. G is normally pretty good but he just made a pretty bold statement with his 7:40 AM update by saying, "I believe the pattern we are in is indicative of yet another major winter storm in the Wed - Thursday time frame." Certainly wasn't of the more typical conservative approach. Maybe he sees something we don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Right now this has the look of a cold SWFE. SE Ridge flexing is muscle and the 850 primary going up to the west. With the cold antecedent airmass front end snows are a good bet but someone goes over to freezing rain and then plain rain/drizzle. Lots of time to go here but that SE Ridge is really making its presence felt in typical nina style. Strongly agree. Also in La Nina fashion is the super fast flow up and over said ridge with little 'major' blocking. Signals sheared out waves and quick overunning hits. Two quick questions regarding a couple posts above.... Who is "Mr G"? And what does SWFE stand for? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 One thing is for sure as of now...this storm is cold for a lot. Notice a lot of the models keep some areas in the teens. Even the EURO stays well below freezing in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Strongly agree. Also in La Nina fashion is the super fast flow up and over said ridge with little 'major' blocking. Signals sheared out waves and quick overunning hits. Two quick questions regarding a couple posts above.... Who is "Mr G"? And what does SWFE stand for? Thanks South West Flow Event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DGEX Ice storm signal if I ever seen one... Maybe I can skate on my street this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mr. G is normally pretty good but he just made a pretty bold statement with his 7:40 AM update by saying, "I believe the pattern we are in is indicative of yet another major winter storm in the Wed - Thursday time frame." Certainly wasn't of the more typical conservative approach. Maybe he sees something we don't? Mr G called for 0 snow in CT on 10pm show night before last storm. Now that was conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know analogs don't mean much but....the latest set pretty much all have either very little snow, or low end warning type events for this area with big snows for the interior. The 96 analogs are gone but.... their are quite a few which occured during seasons in which we recieved a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mr. G is normally pretty good but he just made a pretty bold statement with his 7:40 AM update by saying, "I believe the pattern we are in is indicative of yet another major winter storm in the Wed - Thursday time frame." Certainly wasn't of the more typical conservative approach. Maybe he sees something we don't? what is wrong about his statement? Winter storm includes snow, ice, sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I love this potential.... There is so much cold air in place.. I would talk to this storm and say... "go ahead.. I dare you to try to cut the lakes"... The way this winter has been.. I'd be so surprised if a strong primary low goes west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Coming event is solid 6-10 la-la-la lock it up! It's not going to cut and I doubt we even get an ending of fz drizzle. Perhaps a version of 12/19/08 moved south significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Coming event is solid 6-10 la-la-la lock it up! It's not going to cut and I doubt we even get an ending of fz drizzle. Perhaps a version of 12/19/08 moved south significantly. its all going to be determined by the northern stream... the faster that gets involved better chance it has of cutting west. You can see on the gfs at h5 the northern stream is slower to get involved thus a further south track than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high. No block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No block. As we saw with the event which just passed, you don't need blocking to get a miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high. just looking at it. I think the reason is the ridge axis out west. That ridge axis is in a bad spot, centered on seattle, thus pumping the se ridge. Also this may play a role in it. The whole s/w doesn't eject from the sw. The energy splits, thus you have a piece in the s/w and the other travelling across the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 just looking at it. I think the reason is the ridge axis out west. That ridge axis is in a bad spot, centered on seattle, thus pumping the se ridge. Also this may play a role in it. The whole s/w doesn't eject from the sw. The energy splits, thus you have a piece in the s/w and the other travelling across the US yeah I did notice that the trough axis out west is ugly, the SE ridge is causing problems, and the energy over the S/W never phases....but I'm hoping something gives and corrects itself as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This proves that the 6z GFS was underdoing upper level warm air. With an 850mb in central Ohio, no way this stays all snow anywhere on the east coast. This is a major ice storm in the making, 10x worse than Monday of last week. define east coast. 93-94 incoming. Snow Goose, earlier why were you saying it will either be A) or B...seemed like you were going to the ends of the continuum in each direction. Why wouldn't this be a not uncommon primary moving into the OH Valley, transfers energy to Delmarva, Jersey coast and then northeast from there? Especially with the PV were it is. mixing and changeover PHL/EC Jersey south and then mostly snow north of there into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high. Not a met here but there I don't see a mechanism for digging. The PV near Hudson's Bay would tend to pull the shortwave north I think? Then as it runs into the dense cold air and a High north of the Lakes it is forced to cut east with the energy to the baroclinic zone off the coast. The SE ridge teleconnects with the Hudson Bay vortex as well and you can't dig into a SE Ridge. This storm has not at any point looked remotely like Jan 96. Go look at the 93-94 setup. Were you around then or are you a youngun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 since i see the dgex model has been thrown in. Here is the accum snowfall from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not a met here but there I don't see a mechanism for digging. The PV near Hudson's Bay would tend to pull the shortwave north I think? Then as it runs into the dense cold air and a High north of the Lakes it is forced to cut east with the energy to the baroclinic zone off the coast. The SE ridge teleconnects with the Hudson Bay vortex as well and you can't dig into a SE Ridge. This storm has not at any point looked remotely like Jan 96. Go look at the 93-94 setup. Were you around then or are you a youngun? I think references to '96 are for the February over-running event that dropped 12"+ in areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 since i see the dgex model has been thrown in. Here is the accum snowfall from it Ummm Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think references to '96 are for the February over-running event that dropped 12"+ in areas. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0202.php The Euro and GFS runs from about 24 hours ago and one of the NOGAPS runs did show something like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not a met here but there I don't see a mechanism for digging. The PV near Hudson's Bay would tend to pull the shortwave north I think? Then as it runs into the dense cold air and a High north of the Lakes it is forced to cut east with the energy to the baroclinic zone off the coast. The SE ridge teleconnects with the Hudson Bay vortex as well and you can't dig into a SE Ridge. This storm has not at any point looked remotely like Jan 96. Go look at the 93-94 setup. Were you around then or are you a youngun? I don't think anyone here is attempting to say that this is 96ish except perhaps from the bananna high standpoint. Seems like now that we have excellent high pressure we can't get a good low track like we've had all season. Looks like too many things need to change to make this work but....with how poor the models have been so far this season its hard to predict which solution will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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