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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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One thing to keep in mind regarding the potential storm for mid next week is the longer range models tend to underdo low-level cold air.

As the 2nd clipper departs and a confluence zone builds across SE Canada, an arctic high will plunge into the N. Plains with a banana extension toward Quebec, bringing an only slightly modified arctic air mass toward our area. I'm thinking Mon and especially Tue will end up notably colder than current forecasts indicate. In fact, the high temp on Tue may be the coldest for NYC this winter, beating the 24F we saw on Jan 24.

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Of the globals, I thought the Euro was the best with SLP placement for the last storm. It was too warm with temps, but it had the right idea of low placement.

I should add that this setup could be perfect for the starving members of this board, namely C-PA, NE-PA, and S-NY, if the low comes north enough.

I find it ironic that we were saying this exact same thing 6 days ago for the storm yesterday. Central Park recorded 19 inches.

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Right now this has the look of a cold SWFE. SE Ridge flexing is muscle and the 850 primary going up to the west. With the cold antecedent airmass front end snows are a good bet but someone goes over to freezing rain and then plain rain/drizzle. Lots of time to go here but that SE Ridge is really making its presence felt in typical nina style.

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What would it take to get the h5 low to cut off in a more favorable position than what the 00z Euro had?

Here is the 6z GFS at hr 132, am I correct by stating it looks like it might cut off here on future runs?

gfs_850_132s.gif

We get a sloppy partially phased positive tilted trough instead

gfs_500_132s.gif

This proves that the 6z GFS was underdoing upper level warm air. With an 850mb in central Ohio, no way this stays all snow anywhere on the east coast. This is a major ice storm in the making, 10x worse than Monday of last week.

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Mr. G is normally pretty good but he just made a pretty bold statement with his 7:40 AM update by saying, "I believe the pattern we are in is indicative of yet another major winter storm in the Wed - Thursday time frame." Certainly wasn't of the more typical conservative approach. Maybe he sees something we don't?

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Right now this has the look of a cold SWFE. SE Ridge flexing is muscle and the 850 primary going up to the west. With the cold antecedent airmass front end snows are a good bet but someone goes over to freezing rain and then plain rain/drizzle. Lots of time to go here but that SE Ridge is really making its presence felt in typical nina style.

Strongly agree.

Also in La Nina fashion is the super fast flow up and over said ridge with little 'major' blocking. Signals sheared out waves and quick overunning hits.

Two quick questions regarding a couple posts above....

Who is "Mr G"?

And what does SWFE stand for?

Thanks

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Strongly agree.

Also in La Nina fashion is the super fast flow up and over said ridge with little 'major' blocking. Signals sheared out waves and quick overunning hits.

Two quick questions regarding a couple posts above....

Who is "Mr G"?

And what does SWFE stand for?

Thanks

South West Flow Event

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Mr. G is normally pretty good but he just made a pretty bold statement with his 7:40 AM update by saying, "I believe the pattern we are in is indicative of yet another major winter storm in the Wed - Thursday time frame." Certainly wasn't of the more typical conservative approach. Maybe he sees something we don't?

Mr G called for 0 snow in CT on 10pm show night before last storm. Now that was conservative :whistle:

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I know analogs don't mean much but....the latest set pretty much all have either very little snow, or low end warning type events for this area with big snows for the interior. The 96 analogs are gone but.... their are quite a few which occured during seasons in which we recieved a major event.

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Mr. G is normally pretty good but he just made a pretty bold statement with his 7:40 AM update by saying, "I believe the pattern we are in is indicative of yet another major winter storm in the Wed - Thursday time frame." Certainly wasn't of the more typical conservative approach. Maybe he sees something we don't?

what is wrong about his statement? Winter storm includes snow, ice, sleet.

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Coming event is solid 6-10 la-la-la lock it up! It's not going to cut and I doubt we even get an ending of fz drizzle. Perhaps a version of 12/19/08 moved south significantly.

its all going to be determined by the northern stream... the faster that gets involved better chance it has of cutting west. You can see on the gfs at h5 the northern stream is slower to get involved thus a further south track than 0z

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Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high.

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Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high.

No block.

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Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high.

just looking at it. I think the reason is the ridge axis out west. That ridge axis is in a bad spot, centered on seattle, thus pumping the se ridge. Also this may play a role in it. The whole s/w doesn't eject from the sw. The energy splits, thus you have a piece in the s/w and the other travelling across the US

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just looking at it. I think the reason is the ridge axis out west. That ridge axis is in a bad spot, centered on seattle, thus pumping the se ridge. Also this may play a role in it. The whole s/w doesn't eject from the sw. The energy splits, thus you have a piece in the s/w and the other travelling across the US

yeah I did notice that the trough axis out west is ugly, the SE ridge is causing problems, and the energy over the S/W never phases....but I'm hoping something gives and corrects itself as time goes on.

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This proves that the 6z GFS was underdoing upper level warm air. With an 850mb in central Ohio, no way this stays all snow anywhere on the east coast. This is a major ice storm in the making, 10x worse than Monday of last week.

define east coast.

93-94 incoming.

Snow Goose, earlier why were you saying it will either be A) or B...seemed like you were going to the ends of the continuum in each direction. Why wouldn't this be a not uncommon primary moving into the OH Valley, transfers energy to Delmarva, Jersey coast and then northeast from there? Especially with the PV were it is. mixing and changeover PHL/EC Jersey south and then mostly snow north of there into New England.

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Could someone please explain to me why this doesn't have the potential to dig more into the gulf and turn into a miller A? Also just throwing this out their, haven't the models had trouble with the northern stream all season? Would be an utter shame if we end up wasting that beautiful bananna high.

Not a met here but there I don't see a mechanism for digging. The PV near Hudson's Bay would tend to pull the shortwave north I think? Then as it runs into the dense cold air and a High north of the Lakes it is forced to cut east with the energy to the baroclinic zone off the coast. The SE ridge teleconnects with the Hudson Bay vortex as well and you can't dig into a SE Ridge. This storm has not at any point looked remotely like Jan 96.

Go look at the 93-94 setup. Were you around then or are you a youngun?

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Not a met here but there I don't see a mechanism for digging. The PV near Hudson's Bay would tend to pull the shortwave north I think? Then as it runs into the dense cold air and a High north of the Lakes it is forced to cut east with the energy to the baroclinic zone off the coast. The SE ridge teleconnects with the Hudson Bay vortex as well and you can't dig into a SE Ridge. This storm has not at any point looked remotely like Jan 96.

Go look at the 93-94 setup. Were you around then or are you a youngun?

I think references to '96 are for the February over-running event that dropped 12"+ in areas.

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Not a met here but there I don't see a mechanism for digging. The PV near Hudson's Bay would tend to pull the shortwave north I think? Then as it runs into the dense cold air and a High north of the Lakes it is forced to cut east with the energy to the baroclinic zone off the coast. The SE ridge teleconnects with the Hudson Bay vortex as well and you can't dig into a SE Ridge. This storm has not at any point looked remotely like Jan 96.

Go look at the 93-94 setup. Were you around then or are you a youngun?

I don't think anyone here is attempting to say that this is 96ish except perhaps from the bananna high standpoint. Seems like now that we have excellent high pressure we can't get a good low track like we've had all season. Looks like too many things need to change to make this work but....with how poor the models have been so far this season its hard to predict which solution will verify.

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