tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 144 the storm falls apart basically...and its a ice storm from the burbs of phl west and north...snow from hpn on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hmmmmm......I like the idea of a cutoff low, we just obviously need it in a better position. Sorry I stayed up for this lol oh well onto the next set of runs tommorrow good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 144hr: main low near Pittsburgh, kinking along NJ coast. 0C line at 850 runs from Scranton to White Plains to Montauk Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 144 the storm falls apart basically...and its a ice storm from the burbs of phl west and north...snow from hpn on north look at the h5 progression from hr 120 to 144 it cant be right...there is NO WAY this is the way it plays out....EURO TRASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 150 it secondaries a new low over the cape. most the precip is out of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sounds actually pretty similar to the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 144hr: main low near Pittsburgh, kinking along NJ coast. 0C line at 850 runs from Scranton to White Plains to Montauk Point. need to starts the transfer a few hundred further S...and transfer off the VA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 look at the h5 progression from hr 120 to 144 it cant be right...there is NO WAY this is the way it plays out....EURO TRASH. its very odd i will say that. its just a huge closed h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When in doubt, go with the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 its very odd i will say that. its just a huge closed h5 and then it opens and gets strung out and some of it settles in the SW with a 1048 hP right there as well...NO WAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sounds actually pretty similar to the GFS..... not really the euro takes the one low into se canada and pops another by cc. The gfs went through pa i believe with the low...the h5 look is no where near close to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ECM @ 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well despite a horrible track basically everyone outside se pa and the cities is below frz the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well despite a horrible track basically everyone outside se pa and the cities is below frz the whole event. To me the 500mb pattern supports a solution like this given how far the west coast ridge has retrograded. This forces heights to rise over the SE and with no -NAO blocking, a storm cutting west cannot be ruled out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To me the 500mb pattern supports a solution like this given how far the west coast ridge has retrograded. This forces heights to rise over the SE and with no -NAO blocking, a storm cutting west cannot be ruled out.... yea i agree totally. Thats why when everyone was throwing 96 and presidents day storm analogs its hog wash when its 5-6 away. then a cycle later those analogs are put to rest with cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea i agree totally. Thats why when everyone was throwing 96 and presidents day storm analogs its hog wash when its 5-6 away. then a cycle later those analogs are put to rest with cutters. The 96 analog isn't even close to what the models are predicting at 500mb..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea i agree totally. Thats why when everyone was throwing 96 and presidents day storm analogs its hog wash when its 5-6 away. then a cycle later those analogs are put to rest with cutters. It was also showing it too far west for this last storm. This will probably change solutions many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 00z NOGAPS which has been staying pretty consistent with the track it has been showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 00z NOGAPS which has been staying pretty consistent with the track it has been showing... another Memphis low = snow for the LV hope this model is right again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 another Memphis low = snow for the LV hope this model is right again Lets just say I updated my blog and the 00z nogaps has support as well... 00z ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 06Z GFS tries to pull a Scott Norwood Miller B from 132-138...a very strange jerk to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 6z GFS looks icy for those in Northern Va. to Southern PA this run... (some snow for those area before the change over to ice......) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 6z GFS looks icy for those in Northern Va. to Southern PA this run... (some snow for those area before the change over to ice......) This is another event where if it unfolds as depicted now will have snow commencing well earlier than anticipated...the GFS having no precip on its 06Z frame at 126 hours over NJ/S NY is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The Euro's bias is in play, and this time that claim is actually valid because there is a cut-off low. Not to mention the Euro OP has absolutely no support from its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro doesn't seem too far-fetched to me. As a matter of fact it does have some support. Take the GFS for example: PNA ridge is displaced a bit too far West. LC's 'heat ridge' (flat, but a ridge nonetheless) is showing up in the Caribbean. Energy is diving into the rockies and being forced to close off as it phases. If we can keep the PV where it's at in Eastern Canada or even displace it farther South, we could be in business, otherwise LC's signal for ice seems valid to me eyes. One thing of note is the ridging trying to build over Greenland. Maybe we are seeing signs of a re-emerging Western-based block? Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. The Euro solution is likely overdone and seasonal trends argue for this. However, can't neglect to note the position of the PNA ridge and the flat SE ridge trying to make an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro doesn't seem too far-fetched to me. As a matter of fact it does have some support. Take the GFS for example: PNA ridge is displaced a bit too far West. LC's 'heat ridge' (flat, but a ridge nonetheless) is showing up in the Caribbean. Energy is diving into the rockies and being forced to close off as it phases. If we can keep the PV where it's at in Eastern Canada or even displace it farther South, we could be in business, otherwise LC's signal for ice seems valid to me eyes. One thing of note is the ridging trying to build over Greenland. Maybe we are seeing signs of a re-emerging Western-based block? Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. The Euro solution is likely overdone and seasonal trends argue for this. However, can't neglect to note the position of the PNA ridge and the flat SE ridge trying to make an appearance. EURO/GEM has a snow-mix/ice secnario for area just inland & west, and snow-mix-some cold rain for the immediate coast GFS/UKIE has mostly snow for all north of PHL Given EURO/GEM have been too far west/amped/warm with EVERY storm this season I would tend to pull those solutions east somewhat, but overall all models are fairly close for this far out. Storm is coming, and everyone will probably see some snow, just a matter of who changes over to mix/ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To me the 500mb pattern supports a solution like this given how far the west coast ridge has retrograded. This forces heights to rise over the SE and with no -NAO blocking, a storm cutting west cannot be ruled out.... cut and redevelop ala 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EURO/GEM has a snow-mix/ice secnario for area just inland & west, and snow-mix-some cold rain for the immediate coast GFS/UKIE has mostly snow for all north of PHL Given EURO/GEM have been too far west/amped/warm with EVERY storm this season I would tend to pull those solutions east somewhat, but overall all models are fairly close for this far out. Storm is coming, and everyone will probably see some snow, just a matter of who changes over to mix/ice Of the globals, I thought the Euro was the best with SLP placement for the last storm. It was too warm with temps, but it had the right idea of low placement. I should add that this setup could be perfect for the starving members of this board, namely C-PA, NE-PA, and S-NY, if the low comes north enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 cut and redevelop ala 93-94 Somewhat similar to the 00Z GFS at around 108 hours http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0208.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.