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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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hr 144 the storm falls apart basically...and its a ice storm from the burbs of phl west and north...snow from hpn on north

look at the h5 progression from hr 120 to 144 it cant be right...there is NO WAY this is the way it plays out....EURO TRASH.

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Well despite a horrible track basically everyone outside se pa and the cities is below frz the whole event.

To me the 500mb pattern supports a solution like this given how far the west coast ridge has retrograded. This forces heights to rise over the SE and with no -NAO blocking, a storm cutting west cannot be ruled out....

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To me the 500mb pattern supports a solution like this given how far the west coast ridge has retrograded. This forces heights to rise over the SE and with no -NAO blocking, a storm cutting west cannot be ruled out....

yea i agree totally. Thats why when everyone was throwing 96 and presidents day storm analogs its hog wash when its 5-6 away. then a cycle later those analogs are put to rest with cutters.

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yea i agree totally. Thats why when everyone was throwing 96 and presidents day storm analogs its hog wash when its 5-6 away. then a cycle later those analogs are put to rest with cutters.

The 96 analog isn't even close to what the models are predicting at 500mb.....

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yea i agree totally. Thats why when everyone was throwing 96 and presidents day storm analogs its hog wash when its 5-6 away. then a cycle later those analogs are put to rest with cutters.

It was also showing it too far west for this last storm. This will probably change solutions many times.

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6z GFS looks icy for those in Northern Va. to Southern PA this run... (some snow for those area before the change over to ice......)

This is another event where if it unfolds as depicted now will have snow commencing well earlier than anticipated...the GFS having no precip on its 06Z frame at 126 hours over NJ/S NY is a joke.

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Euro doesn't seem too far-fetched to me. As a matter of fact it does have some support. Take the GFS for example:

gfs_500_108m.gif

PNA ridge is displaced a bit too far West. LC's 'heat ridge' (flat, but a ridge nonetheless) is showing up in the Caribbean. Energy is diving into the rockies and being forced to close off as it phases.

If we can keep the PV where it's at in Eastern Canada or even displace it farther South, we could be in business, otherwise LC's signal for ice seems valid to me eyes.

One thing of note is the ridging trying to build over Greenland. Maybe we are seeing signs of a re-emerging Western-based block?

Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. The Euro solution is likely overdone and seasonal trends argue for this. However, can't neglect to note the position of the PNA ridge and the flat SE ridge trying to make an appearance.

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Euro doesn't seem too far-fetched to me. As a matter of fact it does have some support. Take the GFS for example:

gfs_500_108m.gif

PNA ridge is displaced a bit too far West. LC's 'heat ridge' (flat, but a ridge nonetheless) is showing up in the Caribbean. Energy is diving into the rockies and being forced to close off as it phases.

If we can keep the PV where it's at in Eastern Canada or even displace it farther South, we could be in business, otherwise LC's signal for ice seems valid to me eyes.

One thing of note is the ridging trying to build over Greenland. Maybe we are seeing signs of a re-emerging Western-based block?

Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. The Euro solution is likely overdone and seasonal trends argue for this. However, can't neglect to note the position of the PNA ridge and the flat SE ridge trying to make an appearance.

EURO/GEM has a snow-mix/ice secnario for area just inland & west, and snow-mix-some cold rain for the immediate coast

GFS/UKIE has mostly snow for all north of PHL

Given EURO/GEM have been too far west/amped/warm with EVERY storm this season I would tend to pull those solutions east somewhat, but overall all models are fairly close for this far out.

Storm is coming, and everyone will probably see some snow, just a matter of who changes over to mix/ice

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EURO/GEM has a snow-mix/ice secnario for area just inland & west, and snow-mix-some cold rain for the immediate coast

GFS/UKIE has mostly snow for all north of PHL

Given EURO/GEM have been too far west/amped/warm with EVERY storm this season I would tend to pull those solutions east somewhat, but overall all models are fairly close for this far out.

Storm is coming, and everyone will probably see some snow, just a matter of who changes over to mix/ice

Of the globals, I thought the Euro was the best with SLP placement for the last storm. It was too warm with temps, but it had the right idea of low placement.

I should add that this setup could be perfect for the starving members of this board, namely C-PA, NE-PA, and S-NY, if the low comes north enough.

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