SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I agree too.. This winter.. Hardly anything tries to cut west of us... I would keep predicting a low south and east of us until this streak breaks To me two things happen with this event, it really fails to phase much with the north system and we wind up with a relatively decent overrunning snow event that may or may not get much north of 40N.....the other option is a big phase occurs allowing that 2nd piece of the high to break off and get an extra day or two to back out to the NE and we get a major lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To me two things happen with this event, it really fails to phase much with the north system and we wind up with a relatively decent overrunning snow event that may or may not get much north of 40N.....the other option is a big phase occurs allowing that 2nd piece of the high to break off and get an extra day or two to back out to the NE and we get a major lakes cutter. Sounds to me like NEPA can't win here either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 heres the 0z ggem at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 To me two things happen with this event, it really fails to phase much with the north system and we wind up with a relatively decent overrunning snow event that may or may not get much north of 40N.....the other option is a big phase occurs allowing that 2nd piece of the high to break off and get an extra day or two to back out to the NE and we get a major lakes cutter. Speaking of the GGEM, at 120 it certainly looks like it's heading that way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs ens mean takes it to eastern tn then scoots it ene off the se va coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Speaking of the GGEM, at 120 it certainly looks like it's heading that way.... It does but instead it shows the usual track a model will see at this range running it from STL over the mountains of CPA...that storm would go to Buffalo or west based on the GEM's system intensity at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GEM not only has the system more west because it phases it more but largely due to the fact it takes forever driving the high down into the Plains...the GFS and GEM differ alot on the position of the high at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 heres the uk at h5 at hr 72 seems a lot less agressive with the northern stream than the ggem and a little less agressive than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I couldn't agree more....but with so many days to go, we have plenty of time for things to fall into place. The GFS this run obviously sped up the phase, and if we can manage a miller A on future runs were obviously golden. 500 MB at the beginning of the Blizzard of 96 NorEaster85, I ask you this, I don't see that H500 setup forming massive amplficiation with a lack of a weak -NAO and a HUGE 50-50 Low. We don't have that setup at all right now, plus that H500 cutoff low is rare as it gets, with the exception of February 9-10th., 2010 and February 25-26th, 2010, but even THOSE cutoffs are tame compared to January 7, 1996; but 1996's cutoff can't compare to December 11-12th, 1992's H500 cutoff low setup, but that was for the SNE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS means That would be a very nice hit on the ens. mean. Looks a little like the forecast for yesterday once close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS means For the given track that's not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ukie shifted way south compared to the 12z run i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 alright euro started, lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 through hr 72 at h5 the northern stream is hanging back more and is a little more involved than 12z. alittle more ridging out ahead of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea this is going to be a different run of the euro ...the northern stream is getting ivolved a lot faster through hr 84....more ridging out ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 102 has the northern stream majorly diving in...looks like sub 1004 low in eastern nm...nice banana high from dakotas to northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 here is 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 102 has the northern stream majorly diving in...looks like sub 1004 low in eastern nm...nice banana high from dakotas to northeast at 96 the 850's were abt -8 around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 at 96 the 850's were abt -8 around here this has cutter written all over it. To much northern stream phasing. It may cut then redevelop, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this has cutter written all over it. To much northern stream phasing. It may cut then redevelop, we'll see with a 1047 hp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 with a 1047 hp? it is cutting this run no doubt, the phasing is way too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the changes at h5 on this run are just insane.. it has a huge cut of h5 low over the rockies, massive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the changes at h5 on this run are just insane.. it has a huge cut of h5 low over the rockies, massive... yeah- looks suspicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 126 has the massive cut of low...a sub 1000 over southern missouri...a 1050 high over eastern montana with a banana high extending from there to the northeast with 1036 isobar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 132 the low is now captured over st louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS @ 96 ECM @ 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 138 has sub 1004 captured at h5 over west central indiana. some snow and ic from m/d line north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ugly as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.