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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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I agree too.. This winter.. Hardly anything tries to cut west of us... I would keep predicting a low south and east of us until this streak breaks

To me two things happen with this event, it really fails to phase much with the north system and we wind up with a relatively decent overrunning snow event that may or may not get much north of 40N.....the other option is a big phase occurs allowing that 2nd piece of the high to break off and get an extra day or two to back out to the NE and we get a major lakes cutter.

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To me two things happen with this event, it really fails to phase much with the north system and we wind up with a relatively decent overrunning snow event that may or may not get much north of 40N.....the other option is a big phase occurs allowing that 2nd piece of the high to break off and get an extra day or two to back out to the NE and we get a major lakes cutter.

Sounds to me like NEPA can't win here either way.

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To me two things happen with this event, it really fails to phase much with the north system and we wind up with a relatively decent overrunning snow event that may or may not get much north of 40N.....the other option is a big phase occurs allowing that 2nd piece of the high to break off and get an extra day or two to back out to the NE and we get a major lakes cutter.

Speaking of the GGEM, at 120 it certainly looks like it's heading that way....

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Speaking of the GGEM, at 120 it certainly looks like it's heading that way....

It does but instead it shows the usual track a model will see at this range running it from STL over the mountains of CPA...that storm would go to Buffalo or west based on the GEM's system intensity at 120 hours.

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I couldn't agree more....but with so many days to go, we have plenty of time for things to fall into place. The GFS this run obviously sped up the phase, and if we can manage a miller A on future runs were obviously golden.

500 MB at the beginning of the Blizzard of 96

500mb-12Z-07Jan96.gif

NorEaster85,

I ask you this, I don't see that H500 setup forming massive amplficiation with a lack of a weak -NAO and a HUGE 50-50 Low. We don't have that setup at all right now, plus that H500 cutoff low is rare as it gets, with the exception of February 9-10th., 2010 and February 25-26th, 2010, but even THOSE cutoffs are tame compared to January 7, 1996; but 1996's cutoff can't compare to December 11-12th, 1992's H500 cutoff low setup, but that was for the SNE area.

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