NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'll take it! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_150l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Knowing that we are over 144 hours from this event, it's gonna be a fun week of tracking! HUGE potential !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 theres are -nao building .....hr 126 + you can see the L up hudson bay get stopped in its tracks and forced back down while H pressure establishes itself over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Massive potential...I would love to see what the analogs say about this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Knowing that we are over 144 hours from this event, it's gonna be a fun week of tracking! HUGE potential !! Yeah it's the usual suspects. Timing of phasing, amount of confluence, how the energies act over the W US etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 theres are -nao building .....hr 126 + you can see the L up hudson bay get stopped in its tracks and forced back down while H pressure establishes itself over Greenland. thats nowhere near a -nao...it has 510 hgs over greenland...the pv is preactically over baffin island..thats a pos nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's about time we had an overrunning event! Damn, I may buy a snow blower this weekend! This looks very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea are monster potential next week then becomes our 50/50L .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Plenty of cold air, it would be a nice storm if it tracks ENE and exits off Delmarva instead of NJ...so shift it about 150 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea are monster potential next week then becomes our 50/50L .... its a transient 50/50, no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 where is everyone getting "massive potential" from? it's a typical overrunning event that changes to drizzle at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Pretty much earlier said that after seeing the 12 Z Nogaps and the 18 Z nogaps there after that the GFS was too far south at 144 hrs in its 12 Z run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 thats nowhere near a -nao...it has 510 hgs over greenland...the pv is preactically over baffin island..thats a pos nao ill trust your knowledge on it then.....my error. i still think it looks alot better than the flow up there the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well he 12z run had the 1/1/96 event as its #9 analog which eventually set the stage for our hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ill trust your knowledge on it then.....my error. i still think it looks alot better than the flow up there the past week or so. im not trying to bash you, im just stating its not a -nao forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When you have a high like this in such great position all you need is the storm itself and the rest will take care of itself besides with the seasonal trends we just can't loose along the coast tie year it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 im not trying to bash you, im just stating its not a -nao forming. no its cool man....my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When you have a high like this in such great position all you need is the storm itself and the rest will take care of itself besides with the seasonal trends we just can't loose along the coast tie year it seems If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Let's hope it tracks south; that would be quite a bit of fr. rain for many. Love snow, but not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea Tombo.....good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb. Thank you. That is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 where is everyone getting "massive potential" from? it's a typical overrunning event that changes to drizzle at the end I agree that as it stands now it looks like a pretty typical overrunning event...maybe on the higher end in terms of potential accums but I doubt its a "major" storm but many locales could see 6 or more (thats childs play this winter but something nonetheless) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb. High pressure is sliding east and off the coast which allows the storm to come to the north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 High pressure is sliding east and off the coast which allows the storm to come to the north..... SnowGoose is a met, so I think his opinion here has merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 High pressure is sliding east and off the coast which allows the storm to come to the north..... Looks exactly like the NOGAPS, at D5.5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The inland people are getting way too excited because this is an event for all of us or its an event for none of us...an unphased SW flow event which originates in KS/NE like a 12/19/08 is the type of event that can be 10 inches of snow in Sussex Co or Hartford but 3-4 then rain for NYC...a likely phased storm like this is either going to stay south of PHL or its likely going to cut west of the Apps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SnowGoose is a met, so I think his opinion here has merit. I do not think i said anything even mentioning him? I simply responded with an observation of you can see WHY the system comes to the North. High pressure is sliding east and not lifting up towards the North....this gives the system the opportunity to come to the north. Its not what I am saying it is what the model is showing and is a explanation for why it is allowed to come north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 <br />If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb.<br /><br /><br /><br />I agree too.. This winter.. Hardly anything tries to cut west of us... I would keep predicting a low south and east of us until this streak breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb. I couldn't agree more....but with so many days to go, we have plenty of time for things to fall into place. The GFS this run obviously sped up the phase, and if we can manage a miller A on future runs were obviously golden. 500 MB at the beginning of the Blizzard of 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I do not think i said anything even mentioning him? I simply responded with an observation of you can see WHY the system comes to the North. High pressure is sliding east and not lifting up towards the North....this gives the system the opportunity to come to the north. Its not what I am saying it is what the model is showing and is a explanation for why it is allowed to come north... I think SnowGoose thinks the high is is a good enough position that such a weak low can't go so far north.. maybe he'll explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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