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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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When you have a high like this in such great position all you need is the storm itself and the rest will take care of itself besides with the seasonal trends we just can't loose along the coast tie year it seems

If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb.

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where is everyone getting "massive potential" from?

it's a typical overrunning event that changes to drizzle at the end

I agree that as it stands now it looks like a pretty typical overrunning event...maybe on the higher end in terms of potential accums but I doubt its a "major" storm but many locales could see 6 or more (thats childs play this winter but something nonetheless)

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If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb.

High pressure is sliding east and off the coast which allows the storm to come to the north.....

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The inland people are getting way too excited because this is an event for all of us or its an event for none of us...an unphased SW flow event which originates in KS/NE like a 12/19/08 is the type of event that can be 10 inches of snow in Sussex Co or Hartford but 3-4 then rain for NYC...a likely phased storm like this is either going to stay south of PHL or its likely going to cut west of the Apps....

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SnowGoose is a met, so I think his opinion here has merit.

I do not think i said anything even mentioning him? I simply responded with an observation of you can see WHY the system comes to the North. High pressure is sliding east and not lifting up towards the North....this gives the system the opportunity to come to the north.

Its not what I am saying it is what the model is showing and is a explanation for why it is allowed to come north...

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<br />If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

I agree too.. This winter.. Hardly anything tries to cut west of us... I would keep predicting a low south and east of us until this streak breaks

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If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb.

I couldn't agree more....but with so many days to go, we have plenty of time for things to fall into place. The GFS this run obviously sped up the phase, and if we can manage a miller A on future runs were obviously golden.

500 MB at the beginning of the Blizzard of 96

500mb-12Z-07Jan96.gif

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I do not think i said anything even mentioning him? I simply responded with an observation of you can see WHY the system comes to the North. High pressure is sliding east and not lifting up towards the North....this gives the system the opportunity to come to the north.

Its not what I am saying it is what the model is showing and is a explanation for why it is allowed to come north...

I think SnowGoose thinks the high is is a good enough position that such a weak low can't go so far north.. maybe he'll explain?

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