SACRUS Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Figured for those tracking addicts lets throw up the discussion for next week. A series of clippers fri - sun should add another coating of white on top of the ever building snowpack. Then, guidance has indicated the potential for overrunning mon/tue with several runs of the euro ,ggem and gfs hinting a possiblt coastal tue - fri ahead of another bitter arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Very wintry week coming up. I can see an overrunning event and then a coastal for next week. The MJO is in a very favorable phase.PNA is still going to be positive and the NAO is going to be neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Very wintry week coming up. I can see an overrunning event and then a coastal for next week. The MJO is in a very favorable phase.PNA is still going to be positive and the NAO is going to be neutral. The 00z GGEM was a transfer mller B beyond 144. The Euro had some overrunning then scraped us with a coastal mid next week. Plenty of potential with frigid cold to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 00z GGEM was a transfer mller B beyond 144. The Euro had some overrunning then scraped us with a coastal mid next week. Plenty of potential with frigid cold to follow. The Euro trended way east last night . It had a glc on the 12z run . Even the ensembles shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Well, Here's what the 6Z DGEX has for thurs next week....I know its the dgex, but anything showing a storm seems to need consideration this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 00z GGEM was a transfer mller B beyond 144. The Euro had some overrunning then scraped us with a coastal mid next week. Plenty of potential with frigid cold to follow. Euro dropping the cutter idea was an awesome sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Better snap shot of DGEX, this looks familiar to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 With the way things have been going so far this season, I wouldn't be suprised if this thing turned into somethng big. Lot's of energy moving through the southern stream, just never phases with any northern stream energy at the moment. As the models get a better handeling on the northern stream within the next two or three days, this one could catch some off guard. What a winter....even if it doesn't snow another flake the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The Euro trended way east last night . It had a glc on the 12z run . Even the ensembles shifted east. It did, but I read that it may have been because it held back more energy in the SW, which at times is a Euro bias. If more energy comes out, it would cut up the coast as it would phase more with the northern energy. The Euro is still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It did, but I read that it may have been because it held back more energy in the SW, which at times is a Euro bias. If more energy comes out, it would cut up the coast as it would phase more with the northern energy. The Euro is still in play. Isn't that what this past storm was supposed to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think we've learned some important lessons about the impact of the lack of RAOB coverage in the north, so I'm optimistic about next week (and I'm the idiot who said yesterday's event would be all rain at KPHL). I also want to point out that the 100hr GFS, which was the most overhyped run ahead of yesterday's storm only missed KPHL QPF by a third of an inch. The ratio's killed us. Btw, I love long-term GFS ratio's. The GFS has snow ratio's of 8:1 and 9:1 with 2M temps of 17 and 22 (yes, I know 2M temp doesn't predict snow growth, but still, that's pretty far-fetched). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant storm next week followed by arctic air...This insane pattern has to break sometime...maybe in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant storm next week followed by arctic air...This insane pattern has to break sometime...maybe in March? Uncle, we will break the snow record if this holds on unti March. You have to be amazed since you seen so many snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant storm next week followed by arctic air...This insane pattern has to break sometime...maybe in March? I'd be fine with it breaking on March 20... Looks like another interesting setup next week and more model mayhem. In the end, I'd be surprised if our region doesn't get at least a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Might I mention, the GFS shows a powerful 1026mb high sitting over New Hampshire during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Overrunning events are my favorite and perhaps I won't need to worry about WAA this time. A repeat of PD2-style overrunning would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Uncle, we will break the snow record if this holds on unti March. You have to be amazed since you seen so many snowstorms. this beats 1960-61 and 1995-96 so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GFS looks pretty good. Not that strong of a low pressure but lots of moisture. PD3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 HELLO DADDY http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_138.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LOL at the 12Z GFS.. As depicted it smacks the same places exactly one week from now AGAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LOL at the 12Z GFS.. As depicted it smacks the same places exactly one week from now AGAIN! There's no sharp cutoff this time, though, so areas north and west of the Lehigh Valley get more this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Can we just lock up that run. It is really far out but the major players from run to run remain there and in relatively similar areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Can we just lock up that run. It is really far out but the major players from run to run remain there and in relatively similar areas. sure. I second the lock up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Boom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS is hanging all that southern stream energy back in the SW. If we can get the northern stream to dive more southwest which could happen with time we could get phasing over the gulf and bam......another miller A. What a year, seems like their are non-stop threats on the models this winter. I do realize that in time we still get a nice storm on this run but the setup at 500 mb has alot more potential than what the current end result is. Seems this year anyway, the GFS is the first to pick up on the storm, then manages to loose it just as the other globals start latching on causing chaos. We might have more gulf convection with this one also, and if yesterdays MECS was any indication, were in for more convective feedback problems. 12z GFS hr 138 (storm just getting going over the gufl) 12z GFS hr 156 (ridging slighlty west of ideal - storm tracking up the coast but sloppy at 500 mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 5-10" for everybody. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS is hanging all that southern stream energy back in the SW. If we can get the northern stream to dive more southwest which could happen with time we could get phasing over the gulf and bam......another miller A. What a year, seems like their are non-stop threats on the models this winter. Nice ridge into the west coast, and the cold getting ready to dive in. No rest for the weary this winter, ust like last winter with the endless threats. This year theyre all delivering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From Facebook Larry Cosgrove Before anyone gets excited about the 12z GFS and its "Snowmageddon 3", take a look at the building heat ridge over Haiti by 156 hours. That is an ice storm signal, my friends, for a WIDE area of the eastern half of the U.S. and an indicator the storm will track north and west of the most recent outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Look at the STJ getting intact in the south, wow, if that can form its way up, oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From Facebook Larry Cosgrove Before anyone gets excited about the 12z GFS and its "Snowmageddon 3", take a look at the building heat ridge over Haiti by 156 hours. That is an ice storm signal, my friends, for a WIDE area of the eastern half of the U.S. and an indicator the storm will track north and west of the most recent outlooks. When is the last time LC was right? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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