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2/1 - 2/4 Storm potential


SACRUS

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Figured for those tracking addicts lets throw up the discussion for next week.

A series of clippers fri - sun should add another coating of white on top of the ever building snowpack. Then, guidance has indicated the potential for overrunning mon/tue with several runs of the euro ,ggem and gfs hinting a possiblt coastal tue - fri ahead of another bitter arctic outbreak.

gfs_pcp_120m.gif

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

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Very wintry week coming up. I can see an overrunning event and then a coastal for next week. The MJO is in a very favorable phase.PNA is still going to be positive and the NAO is going to be neutral.

The 00z GGEM was a transfer mller B beyond 144. The Euro had some overrunning then scraped us with a coastal mid next week. Plenty of potential with frigid cold to follow.

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The 00z GGEM was a transfer mller B beyond 144. The Euro had some overrunning then scraped us with a coastal mid next week. Plenty of potential with frigid cold to follow.

The Euro trended way east last night . It had a glc on the 12z run . Even the ensembles shifted east.

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With the way things have been going so far this season, I wouldn't be suprised if this thing turned into somethng big. Lot's of energy moving through the southern stream, just never phases with any northern stream energy at the moment. As the models get a better handeling on the northern stream within the next two or three days, this one could catch some off guard. What a winter....even if it doesn't snow another flake the rest of the season.

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The Euro trended way east last night . It had a glc on the 12z run . Even the ensembles shifted east.

It did, but I read that it may have been because it held back more energy in the SW, which at times is a Euro bias. If more energy comes out, it would cut up the coast as it would phase more with the northern energy. The Euro is still in play.

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I think we've learned some important lessons about the impact of the lack of RAOB coverage in the north, so I'm optimistic about next week (and I'm the idiot who said yesterday's event would be all rain at KPHL).

I also want to point out that the 100hr GFS, which was the most overhyped run ahead of yesterday's storm only missed KPHL QPF by a third of an inch. The ratio's killed us. Btw, I love long-term GFS ratio's. The GFS has snow ratio's of 8:1 and 9:1 with 2M temps of 17 and 22 (yes, I know 2M temp doesn't predict snow growth, but still, that's pretty far-fetched).

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I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant storm next week followed by arctic air...This insane pattern has to break sometime...maybe in March?

Uncle, we will break the snow record if this holds on unti March.

You have to be amazed since you seen so many snowstorms. :snowman:

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I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant storm next week followed by arctic air...This insane pattern has to break sometime...maybe in March?

I'd be fine with it breaking on March 20...:whistle:

Looks like another interesting setup next week and more model mayhem. In the end, I'd be surprised if our region doesn't get at least a few inches of snow.

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GFS is hanging all that southern stream energy back in the SW. If we can get the northern stream to dive more southwest which could happen with time we could get phasing over the gulf and bam......another miller A. What a year, seems like their are non-stop threats on the models this winter. :thumbsup: I do realize that in time we still get a nice storm on this run but the setup at 500 mb has alot more potential than what the current end result is. Seems this year anyway, the GFS is the first to pick up on the storm, then manages to loose it just as the other globals start latching on causing chaos. We might have more gulf convection with this one also, and if yesterdays MECS was any indication, were in for more convective feedback problems.

12z GFS hr 138 (storm just getting going over the gufl)

gfs_500_138s.gif

12z GFS hr 156 (ridging slighlty west of ideal - storm tracking up the coast but sloppy at 500 mb)

gfs_500_156s.gif

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GFS is hanging all that southern stream energy back in the SW. If we can get the northern stream to dive more southwest which could happen with time we could get phasing over the gulf and bam......another miller A. What a year, seems like their are non-stop threats on the models this winter. :thumbsup:

Nice ridge into the west coast, and the cold getting ready to dive in. No rest for the weary this winter, ust like last winter with the endless threats. This year theyre all delivering.

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From Facebook

Larry Cosgrove

Before anyone gets excited about the 12z GFS and its "Snowmageddon 3", take a look at the building heat ridge over Haiti by 156 hours. That is an ice storm signal, my friends, for a WIDE area of the eastern half of the U.S. and an indicator the storm will track north and west of the most recent outlooks.

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From Facebook

Larry Cosgrove

Before anyone gets excited about the 12z GFS and its "Snowmageddon 3", take a look at the building heat ridge over Haiti by 156 hours. That is an ice storm signal, my friends, for a WIDE area of the eastern half of the U.S. and an indicator the storm will track north and west of the most recent outlooks.

When is the last time LC was right?

Rossi

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