Jaguars Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Figures NYC gets a insane season the year I leave. I figure KNYC has gotta be near 50" after the dust clears from this one. Anyone think there's a shot at breaking the record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There is little doubt in my mind that they can't. There's already another storm threat on the horizon after the clippers and the long range continues to favor more and more storminess. All signs point to another cold and snowy February around here, I think NYC will easily exceed 95-96 totals by the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think NYC is going to beat the record.And to think that this winter was supposed to be warm with not a lot of snow.-NAO and -AO FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 95-96 a dream winter, but I think this is even better.95-96 you has thaws..a week after the blizzard on 96..there was a rain storm which washed most of it away..when it comes to snow and snowcover, this winter is the best of my life..and I'm 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NYC snowfall by month/season http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think NYC is going to beat the record.And to think that this winter was supposed to be warm with not a lot of snow.-NAO and -AO FTW. Yep. And exactly why I stopped reading a lot of long term forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yep. And exactly why I stopped reading a lot of long term forecasts. Also, to have a great blocking in a strong la Nina is really rare. Another thing that is rare is that the MJO is in phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Also, to have a great blocking in a strong la Nina is really rare. Another thing that is rare is that the MJO is in phase 8. True. If memory serves though, 09/10 was supposed to suck too and ended up being pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 True. If memory serves though, 09/10 was supposed to suck too and ended up being pretty good. Yes it was supposed to suck. It was a good winter. I received 30 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 With the 19" they got from this storm, how much does NYC have now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I do NOT think we will break 95-96. I had 72" that year. I am about halfway there now. Most of that 72" came in the great 30" storm on 1/8/96. We need something like that to break the 96 record. Its still a La Nina and even our large storms this year tended to move quickly in the progressive flow. I don't see that stopping unless there is a sudden weakening of the Nina. Still been a very good winter.....maybe because there were lower expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 With the 19" they got from this storm, how much does NYC have now? should be around 56 or so I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I do NOT think we will break 95-96. I had 72" that year. I am about halfway there now. Most of that 72" came in the great 30" storm on 1/8/96. We need something like that to break the 96 record. Its still a La Nina and even our large storms this year tended to move quickly in the progressive flow. I don't see that stopping unless there is a sudden weakening of the Nina. Still been a very good winter.....maybe because there were lower expectations. 1 more mecs or hecs or a few storms would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 1 more mecs or hecs or a few storms would do it. For NYC, possibly, since you had the 20", when I received only 8" out of the same storm. But again, the progressive nature of the storms argues against a HECS or even another MECS. But this year, anything is possible. Its certainly more reachable for NYC than for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Here's some food for thought for those who think NYC "cant have 100" of snow in a season-- we have had 93" already from Feb 1, 2010 thru today-- and we can actually have over 100" in a 365 day period if we get a couple inches from the clipper and the snowstorm next week pans out, because we didnt get our first big snow in Feb until the 10th! All this with a snowless March 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This of course does not speak to the upcoming pattern, but here's a graph put together by another staff member showing how the two seasons compare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This of course does not speak to the upcoming pattern, but here's a graph put together by another staff member showing how the two seasons compare: Can we say we have a sort of close match with how this and that winter year time-frame played out? Its not exactly the same but its very close and could be a way of using for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 With the 19" they got from this storm, how much does NYC have now? I believe I read 56.1" thus far for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 With the 19" they got from this storm, how much does NYC have now? NYC now has 56.1"; the seasonal record is 75.6"; thus 19.6" is needed to break the record. 19.6" is still a good amount..... certainly more than we'd usually get in a half season, BUT it is also quite possible this season when it seems NOTHING can go wrong for NYC snowfall. We have the entire months of February and March to go.... on average we would expect 10.8" in those two months. This winter season is anything but normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Persistence is a great predictor of future weather even when the LR models want to break down a given pattern. Where the LR mods remain favorable, as now, there is every reason to think this run will continue. I say NNJ/NYC break 95'-96'...perhaps by a wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was thinking the same thing. I feel NYC has an good chance of breaking it. BTW this winter is way better because it has stayed cold. During 95/96 it alternated between cold and warm. Most of the snows melted rather quickly back then. Persistence is a great predictor of future weather even when the LR models want to break down a given pattern. Where the LR mods remain favorable, as now, there is every reason to think this run will continue. I say NNJ/NYC break 95'-96'...perhaps by a wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The fact that NYC still needs nearly 20" just goes to show you how crazy of a winter 95-96 was. 20" with over 2 months of snow season left doesn't seem like much of a challenge for this winter, but there's still a pretty good chance we could fall short. I'm hoping Feb is another great month so we can make a legit shot at the century mark. The odds have to be at least 2% now after starting the winter off with a .00001% chance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The fact that NYC still needs nearly 20" just goes to show you how crazy of a winter 95-96 was. 20" with over 2 months of snow season left doesn't seem like much of a challenge for this winter, but there's still a pretty good chance we could fall short. I'm hoping Feb is another great month so we can make a legit shot at the century mark. The odds have to be at least 2% now after starting the winter off with a .00001% chance lol we are ahead of what 96 was at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Also, to have a great blocking in a strong la Nina is really rare. Another thing that is rare is that the MJO is in phase 8. Great thought. I started a thread (link) based on this.As for the OP, yes, I think we pass 1995-6. Given the way the patterns have been lining up a replay of the Boxing Day Blizzard wouldn't shock me at all. After all, it's much easier to get that in February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 if we could only get a HECS out of next week's system, then we'd nail it and be in shooting range of exceeding an unprecedented 80"(unprecedented to the extent of when official snowfall records started being kept in 1868). It's also too bad that there's an absence of data for the little ice age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we still have about four to six weeks left this winter for more storms...The persistent snow cover beats 1995-96 and might rival 1947-48 for most days with deep snow cover...We already had a storm that rivaled the blizzard of 96 and a second storm that was huge also...February 1996 had over 20" of snow and March 13"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NYC has a decent chance of breaking its all time snowfall record........if central MD can get 90+ inches in a season, then NYC certainly can as well. Last year, A-L-E-X was contemplating about whether there could be a winter like 09-10, a winter with multiple HECS, but displaced a bit further north. It seems like that's exactly what is happening this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Last year, A-L-E-X was contemplating about whether there could be a winter like 09-10, a winter with multiple HECS, but displaced a bit further north. It seems like that's exactly what is happening this year. Blame it (the displacement) on La Niña (I know the opposite of the old tee shirt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My parents near Trenton: 32.5" for January through the 27th. 42.7" for the winter through January 27th. Still running 3.8" behind 1995-96 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we are ahead of what 96 was at this point This is true for Central Park. This winter has had 56.1" through January 27th. The most snow to date in any prior winter was 52.1" in 1947-1948. 1904-05 was second and had 40.6" up to this point. 1995-96 was third and only had 39.6" up to this point. 1994 doesn't even rate in the top 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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