I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i wish it would melt quicker. wet feet from slushpuddles = no fun. plus we need room for more... it sorta looks like it did right after jan 30 2010 right now out there. Ian is calling for a 20 to 30 inch hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i dont think that's the right way to look at yesterday. that was basically the best case scenario and probably wouldnt have been that good 3 weeks later when avgs are going up. i was actually somewhat amazed that both dca and bwi topped 1.5", bwi by quite a bit actually. i'd rather it had been twice as long but i'd take a storm like that over many others. at my age, trust me, that's the way to look at it I ain't gonna' live forever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i wish it would melt quicker. wet feet from slushpuddles = no fun. plus we need room for more... it sorta looks like it did right after jan 30 2010 right now out there. we are going to get more snow this winter, the cold is reloading and I see no end to the temperature pattern, and as the wavelengths continue to shorten from here out each trough has a better and better chance to dig more. If this pattern holds through February we are definitely not done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On blackberry can't pull it up what does it show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On blackberry can't pull it up what does it show fiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ian is calling for a 20 to 30 inch hecs 30 might be a stretch.. widespread 18-24 (3.8 @ DCA) should do tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Most porn is but it can be nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we are going to get more snow this winter, the cold is reloading and I see no end to the temperature pattern, and as the wavelengths continue to shorten from here out each trough has a better and better chance to dig more. If this pattern holds through February we are definitely not done. definitely. this might have been bonus snow in what is still generally a transitioning better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 30 might be a stretch.. widespread 18-24 (3.8 @ DCA) should do tho. Ian is firing up the bus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 30 might be a stretch.. widespread 18-24 (3.8 @ DCA) should do tho. I will tell you one thing if we get a HECS next week i will be like screw Hoffman, IAN is the man. You have been calling for a Feb biggie for a while now. And if your wrong i will prank call you at 3 AM until next winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So i guess as Phineas said, my ice storm overperformed.. and the worm has turned for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Would be nice to see again -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p24_156l.gif 850's -7 to -9 the entire event for us too LWX's HWO already mentions wintry precip possible next Tues/Wed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 definitely. this might have been bonus snow in what is still generally a transitioning better pattern. Agreed, its funny but when I identified the storm yesterday last week it was mostly just throwing out there when I thought we had a legitimate threat for real snow since I was taking heat for being a debbie downer and pointing out all the problems with our last few "threats". It was in no way me thinking that would be the big one or anything. I agree the pattern holds more promise as we head into February. In the end this winter will probably be remembered for the "Ian" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky13 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gotcha - NO MORE heavy wet snow from now on - just cold temps with 1.5 qpf with 20 to 1 ratios. That'll pile up and your power will be just fine Oh, yeah! Now you're talking! (Internet went out again.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I will tell you one thing if we get a HECS next week i will be like screw Hoffman, IAN is the man. You have been calling for a Feb biggie for a while now. And if your wrong i will prank call you at 3 AM until next winter . im not sure i was thinking this one but if it turns out that way hey sure. it will be feb. this is partly based on the idea that psuhoffman noted above that wavelengths get better nearer the end of the season so we have more room to play and go big. plus the simple fact that we are in a golden age of major east coast storms cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Who's gonna post the DGEX?? Mitch? Must be too warm or dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W4CGT Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Agreed, its funny but when I identified the storm yesterday last week it was mostly just throwing out there when I thought we had a legitimate threat for real snow since I was taking heat for being a debbie downer and pointing out all the problems with our last few "threats". It was in no way me thinking that would be the big one or anything. I agree the pattern holds more promise as we head into February. In the end this winter will probably be remembered for the "Ian" storm. not enough people know who debbie downer is. you ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Agreed, its funny but when I identified the storm yesterday last week it was mostly just throwing out there when I thought we had a legitimate threat for real snow since I was taking heat for being a debbie downer and pointing out all the problems with our last few "threats". It was in no way me thinking that would be the big one or anything. I agree the pattern holds more promise as we head into February. In the end this winter will probably be remembered for the "Ian" storm. i was mostly just shocked it basically held from when it first started showing up. once we were 3-5 days out it started to become real but even then it's troublesome to thread the needle. mitch can be unhappy about overqpf'ing but this storm was easily one of the more fascinating to watch come together that i've ever tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 im not sure i was thinking this one but if it turns out that way hey sure. it will be feb. this is partly based on the idea that psuhoffman noted above that wavelengths get better nearer the end of the season so we have more room to play and go big. plus the simple fact that we are in a golden age of major east coast storms cannot be ignored. poor Mallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Agreed, its funny but when I identified the storm yesterday last week it was mostly just throwing out there when I thought we had a legitimate threat for real snow since I was taking heat for being a debbie downer and pointing out all the problems with our last few "threats". It was in no way me thinking that would be the big one or anything. I agree the pattern holds more promise as we head into February. In the end this winter will probably be remembered for the "Ian" storm. Did you thank the models yet for not busting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Would be nice to see again -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p24_156l.gif 850's -7 to -9 the entire event for us too LWX's HWO already mentions wintry precip possible next Tues/Wed as well After their problems yesterday, they will probably use the counties reverse 911 to call everyone and inform them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i was mostly just shocked it basically held from when it first started showing up. once we were 3-5 days out it started to become real but even then it's troublesome to thread the needle. mitch can be unhappy about overqpf'ing but this storm was easily one of the more fascinating to watch come together that i've ever tracked. when it started to become obvious that the temperatures would be a problem I got nervous and we really did max out in that regard because of the limitations the thermal profiles put on us. However, I was not totally shocked that the trough evolved as it did. Some situations have more variability then others. When 100 percent of the guidance is showing the same trough location and depth, and we are in a fairly stable 3 wave pattern right now, its more believable that the guidance is generally onto the major h5 features. (even from 10 days out). Even when the GGEM was cutting inland it had the same general H5 look, just was off at the surface. Its true we have to get things to come together for it to work out really good, but I thought the idea that there would be a trough digging into the TN valley with enough space to amplify was likely to verify. From there I will take my chances. Things could have easily fallen apart but at least thats a setup that gives us a chance unlike some of the crap we were tracking before that. This next one is legit also. As with the last storm there are things that could go wrong. The GGEM idea is viable if the energy bundles and amplifies too soon. There is no blocking and the PV will act to suppress things so long as the trough remains broad and doesn't dig in and amplify too much. A weaker surface low is better in this case, let that 1045 high do the work. It has a nice overrunning signature to me. More tracking fun coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Did you thank the models yet for not busting? Most of the models did not really show a snowstorm for us until within 72 hours. They did however nail the H5 setup and that is what identified it as a real threat. The models have been pretty good at h5 actually most of the winter, the problem is if you look at h5 most of the storms we were tracking did not look like a good setup. The surface did but H5 was not ideal. We then had to watch the surface become crap to match the H5 setup each time. This time it was the reverse. From 10 days out I would much rather have a favorable h5 setup and crap at the surface then the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Did you thank the models yet for not busting? geezus Yoeman, you just got 9" of snow and you're out patrolling everyone this winter has scarred us all a little bit I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 geezus Yoeman, you just got 9" of snow and you're out patrolling everyone this winter has scarred us all a little bit I see 9.8 dammit! All in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we're in Phase 8 on our way to Phase 1, so if we're gonna get a big one, next week would be the time http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Norfolk, VA needs another 16" storm! I wish there was a way ORF-RIC-DC-BOS could all get walloped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we're in Phase 8 on our way to Phase 1, so if we're gonna get a big one, next week would be the time http://cawcr.gov.au/...Last40days.html Agree. I think if we do get the big one, we may return to average temps (i.e. around 40) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 9.8 dammit! All in good fun. OK, but stop having fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we are going to get more snow this winter, the cold is reloading and I see no end to the temperature pattern, and as the wavelengths continue to shorten from here out each trough has a better and better chance to dig more. If this pattern holds through February we are definitely not done. One of our favorite mets is calling for a breakdown in the pattern after Feb 4th...much milder air coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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