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Winter Storm FAIL next week


Ji

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Agreed. It'll probably lift north some, so if I were in NYC I wouldn't really worry that much

I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change

the vort yesterday went way south

now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year

otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

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I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change

the vort yesterday went way south

now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year

otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

I'm not so sure we've 100% changed tho. I think the confluence is probably modeled a little too strong, but we'll see

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I love this heavy wet snow so much. I am almost in tears from sheer gratitude for five inches of sweet heavy wet snow. It's going to freeze nice and tight overnight. I am going to savor so many jebwalks in the next few days.

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Goodness! We just got our Internet back! Bite your tongue about the heavy, wet stuff, 'cause we lost power from 7 pm last night until a couple of hours ago. Brrrr!

But I did go out last night and walk around--in your honor. Do you ever bring gin and tonics along?

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Goodness! We just got our Internet back! Bite your tongue about the heavy, wet stuff, 'cause we lost power from 7 pm last night until a couple of hours ago. Brrrr!

But I did go out last night and walk around--in your honor. Do you ever bring gin and tonics along?

Gotcha - NO MORE heavy wet snow from now on - just cold temps with 1.5 qpf with 20 to 1 ratios. That'll pile up and your power will be just fine

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I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change

the vort yesterday went way south

now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year

otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_150l.gif

typical error on northern branch h5 features is to be too far south at this range. That is the reason why storms tend to lift north. You are right if that vort was located exactly as the GFS has it now it would not lift much further north. Another reason for last minute adjustments north is often times the models do not do a good job of seeing where the northern extent should be. The precip usually gets to where the confluent flow begins but often times models cut it off a bit south of there. Either way its too far out for worrying about such things. Personally I agree with you, this is not a money in the bank thing for NYC north this time due to the west to east flow under that vortex.

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I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change

the vort yesterday went way south

now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year

otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_150l.gif

you're like a completely different poster than a week ago now

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Amen. I don't have a foot, but I do have a nice blanket.

Does anybody think this storm can generate 341 pages of storm analysis?

im sure at least 1/3 of it was whining about how we always get screwed and it wont snow here this winter so i doubt we can hit quite those levels unless it's my feb hecs tho i sorta thought that would be later.. :snowman:

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Amen. I don't have a foot, but I do have a nice blanket.

Does anybody think this storm can generate 341 pages of storm analysis?

Sure - This upcoming storm will generate 741 pages of analysis - We are going to remember this one for a long time - From north Georgia to weathafella land - From west virginia, to the new york island - This snowstorm was meant for you and me

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you're like a completely different poster than a week ago now

it all goes back to the basis of my concern that some winters, it just can't or won't snow around here

this winter was right there with 72/73, 00/01 and 01/02 until yesterday

but like I also mentioned a couple times earlier today, the winter still keeps finding a way to screw us when you consider qpf vs. snowfall

but if we can get a couple more (at least) storms like yesterday's, I will consider it a victory snatched from the hands of defeat

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Amazing what a little snow will do for someone ;) .

i wish it would melt quicker. wet feet from slushpuddles = no fun. plus we need room for more... it sorta looks like it did right after jan 30 2010 right now out there. :whistle:

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it all goes back to the basis of my concern that some winters, it just can't or won't snow around here

this winter was right there with 72/73, 00/01 and 01/02 until yesterday

but like I also mentioned a couple times earlier today, the winter still keeps finding a way to screw us when you consider qpf vs. snowfall

but if we can get a couple more (at least) storms like yesterday's, I will consider it a victory snatched from the hands of defeat

i dont think that's the right way to look at yesterday. that was basically the best case scenario and probably wouldnt have been that good 3 weeks later when avgs are going up. i was actually somewhat amazed that both dca and bwi topped 1.5", bwi by quite a bit actually. i'd rather it had been twice as long but i'd take a storm like that over many others.

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