stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 at 132 hrs, it s leaving a piece out in the SW so this looks to come out flatter on this run, but we'll see You should change your name from mitchnick to nitpick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 nyc and boston miss so we know this run is not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Need to call this upcoming storm Psuhoffman II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 nyc and boston miss so we know this run is not right Agreed. It'll probably lift north some, so if I were in NYC I wouldn't really worry that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Need to call this upcoming storm Psuhoffman II let him retire at the top of his game Jeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Need to call this upcoming storm Psuhoffman II Revenge of the Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You should change your name from mitchnick to nitpick maybe this? gfs looks real good on to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 let him retire at the top of his game Jeb Keep him in the DH position until he strikes out. PSU HOFFMAN II it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Agreed. It'll probably lift north some, so if I were in NYC I wouldn't really worry that much I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change the vort yesterday went way south now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 maybe this? gfs looks real good on to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 nyc and boston miss so we know this run is not right Also: all of VA getting hit better than MD for a Mid-Atlantic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change the vort yesterday went way south now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif I'm not so sure we've 100% changed tho. I think the confluence is probably modeled a little too strong, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 nyc and boston miss so we know this run is not right It's our feb 27, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 .5-.75 on 18z GFS plus temps around 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sure is nicer tracking a 130 hour storm with a foot of snow in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If this storm works out and the pattern stays favorable for us, then KA may have gotten his mojo back. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky13 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I love this heavy wet snow so much. I am almost in tears from sheer gratitude for five inches of sweet heavy wet snow. It's going to freeze nice and tight overnight. I am going to savor so many jebwalks in the next few days. Goodness! We just got our Internet back! Bite your tongue about the heavy, wet stuff, 'cause we lost power from 7 pm last night until a couple of hours ago. Brrrr! But I did go out last night and walk around--in your honor. Do you ever bring gin and tonics along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sure is nicer tracking a 130 hour storm with a foot of snow in your backyard. Amen. It looks like a good track right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Since we know this stiorm will end up furthern north (you know the whole GFS cold bias out this range and especially on the 18Z) there is plenty of wiggle room for that eventuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Goodness! We just got our Internet back! Bite your tongue about the heavy, wet stuff, 'cause we lost power from 7 pm last night until a couple of hours ago. Brrrr! But I did go out last night and walk around--in your honor. Do you ever bring gin and tonics along? Gotcha - NO MORE heavy wet snow from now on - just cold temps with 1.5 qpf with 20 to 1 ratios. That'll pile up and your power will be just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change the vort yesterday went way south now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_150l.gif typical error on northern branch h5 features is to be too far south at this range. That is the reason why storms tend to lift north. You are right if that vort was located exactly as the GFS has it now it would not lift much further north. Another reason for last minute adjustments north is often times the models do not do a good job of seeing where the northern extent should be. The precip usually gets to where the confluent flow begins but often times models cut it off a bit south of there. Either way its too far out for worrying about such things. Personally I agree with you, this is not a money in the bank thing for NYC north this time due to the west to east flow under that vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don;t know Randy, we've definitely had a pattern change the vort yesterday went way south now look at the 150 hrs 500mb map off the GFS; that vortex in Canada is not prone to allowing storms to head north, but we'll see as it has been their year otoh, last year was "ours" and hit a brick wall on 2/10 so anything is possible http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_150l.gif you're like a completely different poster than a week ago now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sure is nicer tracking a 130 hour storm with a foot of snow in your backyard. Amen. I don't have a foot, but I do have a nice blanket. Does anybody think this storm can generate 341 pages of storm analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Amen. I don't have a foot, but I do have a nice blanket. Does anybody think this storm can generate 341 pages of storm analysis? im sure at least 1/3 of it was whining about how we always get screwed and it wont snow here this winter so i doubt we can hit quite those levels unless it's my feb hecs tho i sorta thought that would be later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VTwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sure is nicer tracking a 130 hour storm with a foot of snow in your backyard. Agreed. The last storm looked awesome for DC north. Hopefully RIC can get in on the action this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Amen. I don't have a foot, but I do have a nice blanket. Does anybody think this storm can generate 341 pages of storm analysis? Sure - This upcoming storm will generate 741 pages of analysis - We are going to remember this one for a long time - From north Georgia to weathafella land - From west virginia, to the new york island - This snowstorm was meant for you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 you're like a completely different poster than a week ago now Amazing what a little snow will do for someone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 you're like a completely different poster than a week ago now it all goes back to the basis of my concern that some winters, it just can't or won't snow around here this winter was right there with 72/73, 00/01 and 01/02 until yesterday but like I also mentioned a couple times earlier today, the winter still keeps finding a way to screw us when you consider qpf vs. snowfall but if we can get a couple more (at least) storms like yesterday's, I will consider it a victory snatched from the hands of defeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Amazing what a little snow will do for someone . i wish it would melt quicker. wet feet from slushpuddles = no fun. plus we need room for more... it sorta looks like it did right after jan 30 2010 right now out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it all goes back to the basis of my concern that some winters, it just can't or won't snow around here this winter was right there with 72/73, 00/01 and 01/02 until yesterday but like I also mentioned a couple times earlier today, the winter still keeps finding a way to screw us when you consider qpf vs. snowfall but if we can get a couple more (at least) storms like yesterday's, I will consider it a victory snatched from the hands of defeat i dont think that's the right way to look at yesterday. that was basically the best case scenario and probably wouldnt have been that good 3 weeks later when avgs are going up. i was actually somewhat amazed that both dca and bwi topped 1.5", bwi by quite a bit actually. i'd rather it had been twice as long but i'd take a storm like that over many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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