gymengineer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 There are always flukes. Other than that storm (which was nearly warm/wet), my forecast has worked OK. Other than strong southern jet winters, what other types of winters would that forecast not fit for our area? This is just where we live. Cold/dry, warm/wet, fluke storm-- near seasonal average. No fluke storm-- way below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Other than strong southern jet winters, what other types of winters would that forecast not fit for our area? This is just where we live. Cold/dry, warm/wet, fluke storm-- near seasonal average. No fluke storm-- way below average. There are plenty of winters where we never really get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 looking at where we are now and the pattern, we probably have one more chance for a snowstorm this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Did I say I was going to wait until 0z Monday to bail? I mean 12z Saturday, my bad. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the 150 hr storm might be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 the 150 hr storm might be good GGEM shows first major shift in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looking at where we are now and the pattern, we probably have one more chance for a snowstorm this winter You could be right for the wrong reasons. Looking at the main weather forum, the discussions about mid- and long- range are all over the place. We still have six weeks of intermittent cold air masses. There is some analog talk about an epic early March. The models can't get these storms correct until 48 hrs.out. Therefore, too much uncertainty about one snow, no snow or several snows. The one certainty is that we are not having a typical la nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpghttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM suggests potential back end snows http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12 MOS GFS Temps had 70 for RIC on Wednesday...that is very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM first model to show cutter idea...now first model to have a massive east trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Food for thought from HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Never thought I'd see a storm with the UKMET the preferred model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Never thought I'd see a storm with the UKMET the preferred model. Unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Never thought I'd see a storm with the UKMET the preferred model. You did say you weren't buying the GFS solution with the High in upstate NY and available arctic air...looks like you are on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I assume the UKMET is still mostly rain and we are clinging to silly hopes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro looks better than it has for some frontrunning snow tho maybe mainly north of dc mon night into early tues then torchy for the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 doesnt really give us much precip with the main storm.. mostly a cold front passage. ~.25+ for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJB Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this storm will suck us back in by sunday night runs. just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 low goes from ark ~1004 to southcentral ind/ill border ~996 to central oh ~1000 to central pa and then tries to transfer offshore but not fast enough to hit sne at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this storm will suck us back in by sunday night runs. just a hunch. Agree with the first four words of that statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 verbatim it drops about .25" with the frontrunner in a stripe across n md including dc./balt.. 850 is moving north pretty good while it comes through tho. but i'd guess northern md gets a few inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro looks better than it has for some frontrunning snow tho maybe mainly north of dc mon night into early tues then torchy for the main event doesnt really give us much precip with the main storm.. mostly a cold front passage. ~.25+ for most of the area. This is about the timeframe we have seen other storms this season start to "transform" into something different. The last time it was the increasing importance of the ULL. Perhaps this time we can score some overrunning and then just get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro keeps shifting the second area of energy out of the sw faster every run. y-day it held till the end of the run, then moved forward like 48 hours last night, now it's ejecting out about 30 hr quicker than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is about the timeframe we have seen other storms this season start to "transform" into something different. The last time it was the increasing importance of the ULL. Perhaps this time we can score some overrunning and then just get dryslotted. it's possible. tho i think the initial overrunning idea was with more high pressure to the north. that's not been the trend of late. but the euro was previously rather dry or nonexistent on the front end so i guess it's good to have something there now. if the storm goes to our north i doubt we'll get much precip with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro shooting that energy our earlier is cooking up a storm next weekend as well now. verbatim it's pretty warm thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hmm....-SN right now. So that's 4 days in a row with snowcover and 3 out of 4 with snow falling from the sky. Nothing can take this away from me. At least until the impending rainstorm washes it all away. I guess the best case scenario for us is enough cold air for wintry precip with frontend precip (if any) and then have the low track just far enough west to dryslot completely until it reforms to far north for anybody. I can live with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe somebody here can answer: Wasn't there a post yesterday, can't remember the thread, where it was stated that a data recon flight was requested and sheduled with the Tues storm in mind? Didn't it also say that this info would first show in the models by 0z and 12z sun? Anybody know? And any guesses why the sudden change in the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro has a serious ice storm again for Dulles and Leesburg. .26 of qpf with Temps around 28. 850 temps at 0.6. Much colder than past several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe somebody here can answer: Wasn't there a post yesterday, can't remember the thread, where it was stated that a data recon flight was requested and sheduled with the Tues storm in mind? Didn't it also say that this info would first show in the models by 0z and 12z sun? Anybody know? And any guesses why the sudden change in the GGEM? I have no idea about the GGEM change but yes, there was going to be recon flights with new data for the models on Sun. Unfortunately, I think data out front right now is a problem that won't be overcome by any new data from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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