Inudaw Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nice bowling ball moving into tx at 162 .. held this piece back longer last run and developed a storm at d 9/10, this looks earlier/better but i guess it's way out there. Hmmm.....We'll see what this run does with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hmmm.....We'll see what this run does with it! looks like mostly rain... not much qpf in the colder area northwest of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 stupid northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gfs continues to be warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gfs continues to be warmer sref still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bottom Line: The battle next 2-3 days is the Cutter option vs. NE US High Pressure CAD and if coastal can take over. All the model runs in the world won't settle this for another 24-36 hrs, if then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kind of interesting that in the top 15 GFS analogs to the 0z run are number 5. Jan 1996, number 14. PD II, and number 15. Feb 28, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have the feeling that the models are moving this storm too far north -- the eventual track may be closer to BNA-CRW-DCA. This is a very large expanse of cold air moving down behind the clipper system and there are 1-3 ft snowpacks generally in place now north of about 38N. This is why I find the easy rebound of thickness a bit difficult to visualize on the models, and also a more southerly track could produce a more intense storm. There will be blizzard conditions from CO across KS and parts of OK into nw AR, s MO and w KY during the formative stages, and heavy freezing rain from s/c AR into w TN and parts of s/c KY. Snowfall across the plains states in regions mentioned could be 10-15 inches in places, trending to near 20 inches in parts of IN-OH. Expecting this storm to run into a wall of cold air with a narrow mixed precip zone, so this is an early call for a major snowstorm Feb 2-3 across most of the northeast and OV with potential for 15-30 inches of snow in some parts of PA, NJ, NY and southern New England. I think the mixing zone will be across VA and MD south of BWI, DE and extreme southern NJ with potential for significant snow during the duration of the event. Would not be surprised if we start seeing greater development night of Feb 2-3 offshore as we get closer to the time, due to new moon energy peak (Feb 3 03z) and possible 970-975 mb low south of LI towards benchmark. Given the way this winter has gone and the pattern last winter, each storm feeds off the snow-cover of the previous one and this could be a huge event. Here's someone who sees some potential with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bottom Line: The battle next 2-3 days is the Cutter option vs. NE US High Pressure CAD and if coastal can take over. All the model runs in the world won't settle this for another 24-36 hrs, if then. After last night's runs, the likelihood of a cutter is becoming overwhelming as even the NAM is looking ugly. Personally, I think the Euro is the best case scenario if it is going to cut because there almost no chance of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 After last night's runs, the likelihood of a cutter is becoming overwhelming as even the NAM is looking ugly. Personally, I think the Euro is the best case scenario if it is going to cut because there almost no chance of ice. No way this doesn't cut now but the question in mind has always been how much overrunning snow would we get....GFS held strong for 4-5" on several runs before breaking this morning on the 06z run with much less....the trend sure is not our friend here but it is only Saturday I guess....after 00z Sunday I will probably bail if this thing hasn't started to come back a bit.....doesn't appear likely but I'm not going to predict that one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not as much as last 2 runs, but 6Z DGEX still has a decent amount of snow for us (10-12") total for the run so yeah, I guess I'm sayin' there's a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Isn't this the part where midlo posts the rainy smilie or tell us its gon rain? damn wine Ji you just went through like 3 mood shifts in like 5 post. man this storm just went to pure shiat in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well this sorta explains why this storm went to cr@p in a hurry MJO died rather suddenly and is back in the circle of blah instead of hanging around phase 8 http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Checked the model output after reading this doom and gloom thread. Looks like the valleys to the NW of the cities are still in the game, at least for one more run. 0Z GFS gave my area -SN from h54 to h102 with total QPF of 0.29", then 0.27" of ice pellets, and temps still in the low-to-mid 20's until then. It ends with 0.31" of rain at 31-34 degrees. 6Z GFS has 0.61" of snow to mix with temps mid-20's before 0.21" rain at the end with similar temps to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 StnID: kdca Model: gfs3 Run: 20110129/0000 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110131/1200Z 60 03007KT 24.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110131/1500Z 63 04006KT 25.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110131/1800Z 66 04005KT 28.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110131/2100Z 69 05005KT 29.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110201/0000Z 72 06005KT 27.9F ICEICEBABY 9:1| 0.2|| 0.2 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/0300Z 75 07005KT 27.3F ICEICEBABY 9:1| 0.2|| 0.4 0.024|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0600Z 78 08005KT 27.0F NO SNOW JI 10:1| 0.3|| 0.7 0.035|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0900Z 81 05004KT 27.1F NO SNOW JI 10:1| 0.3|| 1.0 0.031|| 0.11 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/1200Z 84 05006KT 26.8F NO SNOW JI 11:1| 0.3|| 1.3 0.024|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/1500Z 87 04006KT 28.8F CONGRATS 10:1| 0.1|| 1.4 0.008|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/1800Z 90 04006KT 31.1F BUCKEYE 9:1| 0.1|| 1.4 0.008|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/2100Z 93 04007KT 30.6F FOSNIZZLE 8:1| 0.2|| 1.7 0.028|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110202/0000Z 96 05007KT 27.9F FOSNIZZLE 8:1| 0.2|| 1.8 0.020|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110202/0300Z 99 05007KT 26.6F WINTER 17:1| 0.2|| 2.0 0.012|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110202/0600Z 102 05007KT 26.2F CANCEL 11:1| 0.3|| 2.3 0.028|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110202/0900Z 105 06008KT 26.2F IPPELLET 12:1| 0.6|| 3.0 0.055|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 92| 8| 0 110202/1200Z 108 07008KT 31.3F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.138|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.14|| 0.14 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1500Z 111 10006KT 33.3F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.264|| 0.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110202/1800Z 114 24003KT 35.8F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.201|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110202/2100Z 117 24008KT 35.8F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.118|| 1.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110203/0000Z 120 26011KT 36.0F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.043|| 1.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This storm looks like a low class pick up chick in a darkly lit bar. The front end looks like fun. The middle is nothing but trouble; . The back end is an ugly mess not worth dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 StnID: kdca Model: gfs3 Run: 20110129/0000 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110131/1200Z 60 03007KT 24.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110131/1500Z 63 04006KT 25.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110131/1800Z 66 04005KT 28.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110131/2100Z 69 05005KT 29.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110201/0000Z 72 06005KT 27.9F ICEICEBABY 9:1| 0.2|| 0.2 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/0300Z 75 07005KT 27.3F ICEICEBABY 9:1| 0.2|| 0.4 0.024|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0600Z 78 08005KT 27.0F NO SNOW JI 10:1| 0.3|| 0.7 0.035|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0900Z 81 05004KT 27.1F NO SNOW JI 10:1| 0.3|| 1.0 0.031|| 0.11 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/1200Z 84 05006KT 26.8F NO SNOW JI 11:1| 0.3|| 1.3 0.024|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/1500Z 87 04006KT 28.8F CONGRATS 10:1| 0.1|| 1.4 0.008|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/1800Z 90 04006KT 31.1F BUCKEYE 9:1| 0.1|| 1.4 0.008|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/2100Z 93 04007KT 30.6F FOSNIZZLE 8:1| 0.2|| 1.7 0.028|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110202/0000Z 96 05007KT 27.9F FOSNIZZLE 8:1| 0.2|| 1.8 0.020|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110202/0300Z 99 05007KT 26.6F WINTER 17:1| 0.2|| 2.0 0.012|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110202/0600Z 102 05007KT 26.2F CANCEL 11:1| 0.3|| 2.3 0.028|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110202/0900Z 105 06008KT 26.2F IPPELLET 12:1| 0.6|| 3.0 0.055|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 92| 8| 0 110202/1200Z 108 07008KT 31.3F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.138|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.14|| 0.14 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1500Z 111 10006KT 33.3F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.264|| 0.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110202/1800Z 114 24003KT 35.8F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.201|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110202/2100Z 117 24008KT 35.8F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.118|| 1.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110203/0000Z 120 26011KT 36.0F GONRAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.0 0.043|| 1.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.14 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- This had me howling!! Now you have that song stuck in my head!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Midlo classic Wintrymix, you nailed it too looking at the NAM, we'll be laughing at ourselves by tomorrow believing at some point we thought we had a chance with this one; Euro's on its way to a crushing defeat with the full fledged support of the NAM these kind of defeats I find less painful so there is a silver lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Midlo classic Wintrymix, you nailed it too looking at the NAM, we'll be laughing at ourselves by tomorrow Attorneys and pick up chick in bars...they always seem to find each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wasn't wild about this storm yesterday and now think it really looks bad unless somehow the gfs does something unexpected. This is looking more like the Thanksgiving storm than any other this winter with the real cold air out in the plains and the initial low going to our north so we wait for the deeper cold air to get to us until after the low reforms off the coast to our north. Hope I'm wrong. The only good thing is for I95, it's looking less icy each run though I still wouldn't feel comfy living back in the valleys to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This had me howling!! Now you have that song stuck in my head!!!! my advice is to enjoy the ice whilst you still can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wasn't wild about this storm yesterday and now think it really looks bad unless somehow the gfs does something unexpected. This is looking more like the Thanksgiving storm than any other this winter with the real cold air out in the plains and the initial low going to our north so we wait for the deeper cold air to get to us until after the low reforms off the coast to our north. Hope I'm wrong. The only good thing is for I95, it's looking less icy each run though I still wouldn't feel comfy living back in the valleys to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 This storm would of been historic with even a hint of blocking. Still think nam is too amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 After all this cold weather and we get ice??? Temps on that gfs3 run not good. Ooooof Fast forward to a warm Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's going to suck getting heavy rain watching SNE get yet another long-duration MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Did I say I was going to wait until 0z Monday to bail? I mean 12z Saturday, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys might want to chase this one up to Deep Creek or Davis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys might want to chase this one up to Deep Creek or Davis. Deep Creek, Missouri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Deep Creek, Missouri? Sure, catch a flight, one without WiFi, preferably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.