Quasievil Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have a hard time seeing this being a lakes cutter, too. Either suppressed or a Mid atlantic hit is more likely.... and I think this one has more cold air than yesterday, so there's a chance it could be an even bigger hit if the 12z GFS track holds. Would you mind tell us (me) why you have a hard time seeing it as a lakes cutter... I'm just trying to understand that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 ensembles say nice CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 the day before does show a suggestion that we'd get some snow first, however http://www.weatherof...ast/236_100.gif Eh...maybe. That high beats a fast retreat to the north. Would be a race between the moisture and the cold air. Again...I have a hard time seeing a cutter with this upper air pattern. I don't see what's dragging this thing so far west. GGEM 120 500mb chart shows the little vortmax going negatively tilted in amongst a much larger positively tilted trough. Looks funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Would you mind tell us (me) why you have a hard time seeing it as a lakes cutter... I'm just trying to understand that's all. Like another met said earlier, the huge Polar Vortex (PV) and mass of cold air sitting over Hudson bay and SE Canada isn't going anywhere much anytime soon, and it will hold any shortwave down south as it passes west to east across the CONUS. That's why a suppressed system is more likely than a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Like another met said earlier, the huge Polar Vortex (PV) and mass of cold air sitting over Hudson bay and SE Canada isn't going anywhere much anytime soon, and it will hold any shortwave down south as it passes west to east across the CONUS. That's why a suppressed system is more likely than a lakes cutter. and its why yesterday's vort stayed to our south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Like another met said earlier, the huge Polar Vortex (PV) and mass of cold air sitting over Hudson bay and SE Canada isn't going anywhere much anytime soon, and it will hold any shortwave down south as it passes west to east across the CONUS. That's why a suppressed system is more likely than a lakes cutter. I didn't see where another Met said it... sorry about that. Appreciate you responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Dang - maybe we can finally jump in on this good winter for the rest of the NE. If it played out like the GFS we would really have to stop complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 this winter is like 95-96 to a tee..except 150 miles North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 lol @ IAD 12z gfs bufkit 110203/0000Z 156 33006KT 21.0F SNOW 14:1| 4.6||16.4 0.327|| 1.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Should we be concerned with the Vort on the GFS sitting over Pittsburgh @ 156? That doesn't seem like a good track to me. yes, that is why I said yesterday that in this case a weaker more strung out solution is better. We need the H5 energy not to amplify too much because it is not digging south of us. If this storm amps it will go north of us. If it is suppressed by the arctic high long enough to force it east south of us before developing then we have a shot. The high and the timing have to be right because this is not a good setup at h5 but some of our best overrunning situations were not good h5 setups, look at PDII and that had a positive NAO also. I am not saying I think the GFS is right or the GGEM is wrong, either solution looks viable to me, but this is NOT the same setup as the storm from yesterday. It was pretty obvious early on that the timing for that was going to be such that there would not be a ton of cold air in place. That meant a bad h5 solution would be deadly. This time we could do with a messy h5, but only if the storm does not amplify too much west of us. Weaker is better in this situation. Let the warm air hitting that 1040 arctic high to the work, we dont need a sub 1000 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Overrunning events are a different beast than what we just had. The vort going over/north of us is why the coastal pops at about our latitude and then hits NY/SNE on later panels. Vort is not that much of an issue for overrunning events. totally agree, as long as we do not see a trend to have a more amplified vort like the GGEM. Right now having the GGEM west is not that big a deal as its been way too amplified the last 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Its amazing to me how persistent and relentless that +PNA ridge is on the West coast. Earlier this Winter, that ridge tended to be located further West in the central Pac. Does look like the pattern finally breaks down in two weeks as the PV moves Eastward bringing a bitter intrusion of cooold air to the NE. What a Winter so far...and much more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You know you want to see it... (Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 lol @ IAD 12z gfs bufkit 110203/0000Z 156 33006KT 21.0F SNOW 14:1| 4.6||16.4 0.327|| 1.20 That is not enough. I want enough so I can just walk out of the windows of the house to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 totally agree, as long as we do not see a trend to have a more amplified vort like the GGEM. Right now having the GGEM west is not that big a deal as its been way too amplified the last 3 storms. ukmet is way west as well. Takes the storm over cleveland sub 980's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 ukmet is way west as well. Takes the storm over cleveland sub 980's. that ukmet-GGEM combo is deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sounds like maybe we could be getting into a better pattern for this area. It was nice to see a storm trend better as it moved in closer. Maybe the worm has turned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ukmet is way west as well. Takes the storm over cleveland sub 980's. It will be suppressed OTS next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 that ukmet-GGEM combo is deadly we'll have to see if its a ecmwf-ukmet-ggem combo before i call it deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 that ukmet-GGEM combo is deadly That and the NOGAPS-BOM-JMA triple alliance of terror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ukmet is way west as well. Takes the storm over cleveland sub 980's. Not that it's right this time but the UKMET did pretty well with this last storm and did not do its normal jump around..stayed pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 totally agree, as long as we do not see a trend to have a more amplified vort like the GGEM. Right now having the GGEM west is not that big a deal as its been way too amplified the last 3 storms. The GGEM and UKMET have blown so far this winter. The GFS has been pretty good actually. It is sort of like the Euro is most winters. Fairly steady. Euro being suppressed is another signal the cutter idea is bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That and the NOGAPS-BOM-JMA triple alliance of terror. I usually ride the CRAS, when that locks in, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Its amazing to me how persistent and relentless that +PNA ridge is on the West coast. Earlier this Winter, that ridge tended to be located further West in the central Pac. Does look like the pattern finally breaks down in two weeks as the PV moves Eastward bringing a bitter intrusion of cooold air to the NE. What a Winter so far...and much more to come. it is too persistent, I am getting nervous about my trip to Salt Lake City in later February, looks totally dry there the next 2 weeks. Hope the ridge out there breaks down before I get out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro? For the clippers or this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Not that it's right this time but the UKMET did pretty well with this last storm and did not do its normal jump around..stayed pretty consistent. I agree. The UKMET did very well with yesterdays storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I agree. The UKMET did very well with yesterdays storms. yes, but not at 5-6+ days before and that's the time frame we're talking here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 hr 102 has a weak 1016 low off the sc coast precip into central va 0c there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 hr 108 1020 low heading out to sea 0.10 to ric 0c to va/nc border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 hr 108 1020 low heading out to sea 0.10 to ric 0c to va/nc border Is that the same storm? Seems way faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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