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Winter Storm FAIL next week


Ji

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every run has gotten warmer since yesterday...this one is over

Dude we have more than 2 days before you can make any statement like this. The probability of ice storm vs rain depends on the position of the pv in canada and how strong that storm is. With a strong PV camped a few miles further south and a weaker storm, we have more confluence in NE and the high pressure will be kept in place. But if we have a stronger primary low and a PV farther north we get less Confluence over New england and more southerly/easterly winds scouring out all the low level cold air via the primary low. Watch the evolution of those two things in the coming days. Though Im thinking the CAD will be modeled stronger eventually as that seems to be the case with models in that they don't catch the strength of the CAD until around 24-30 hours before the storm hits.

IMO this is snow to major ice to maybe a little rain.

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like I said, this winter will not stop finding a way to screw us

figure the odds with all that cold

http://vortex.plymou...t=h72&cu=latest

Baltimore just got a foot of snow, how can you seriously still be complaining? Second, the amount of cold around will have nothing to do with the final outcome. It doesn't matter if its -10 degrees 24 hours before the storm, if it amps too far west and with no block or -nao it cuts to the lakes we will warm. Maybe not at the surface but definitely 850. Yes its cold, but frankly right now the setup is horrible. Trough axis way too far west, and no blocking at all. What part of that would be bad luck? Its not a good pattern for us. We had a shot if it was just a weak surface wave slamming into the arctic high but this setup is all wrong now.

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Baltimore just got a foot of snow, how can you seriously still be complaining? Second, the amount of cold around will have nothing to do with the final outcome. It doesn't matter if its -10 degrees 24 hours before the storm, if it amps too far west and with no block or -nao it cuts to the lakes we will warm. Maybe not at the surface but definitely 850. Yes its cold, but frankly right now the setup is horrible. Trough axis way too far west, and no blocking at all. What part of that would be bad luck? Its not a good pattern for us. We had a shot if it was just a weak surface wave slamming into the arctic high but this setup is all wrong now.

for all those highlighted reasons, to answer your first question

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Baltimore just got a foot of snow, how can you seriously still be complaining? Second, the amount of cold around will have nothing to do with the final outcome. It doesn't matter if its -10 degrees 24 hours before the storm, if it amps too far west and with no block or -nao it cuts to the lakes we will warm. Maybe not at the surface but definitely 850. Yes its cold, but frankly right now the setup is horrible. Trough axis way too far west, and no blocking at all. What part of that would be bad luck? Its not a good pattern for us. We had a shot if it was just a weak surface wave slamming into the arctic high but this setup is all wrong now.

Woudn''t the PV position prevent an all out lake's cutter? I mean its directly in the way of the primary and if I am not mistaken, is what is holding the high pressure system in place. If that pv is any farther south, and the low was weaker, wouldn't it prevent a lakes cutter or at least keep the cold air in place by promoting confluence in new england?

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