aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i like the potential for a few inches with the front runner The gfs has been insistent for several runs on more than a few inches then big ice for a lot of areas then single digit temps a few days later....looks good on paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OT: may get a few hours of snow tomorrow per 0Z NAM by the looks of this 700mb RH http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_018l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The gfs has been insistent for several runs on more than a few inches then big ice for a lot of areas then single digit temps a few days later....looks good on paper Yup... but if it can finally recognize the CAD maybe we will get more snow than ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The gfs has been insistent for several runs on more than a few inches then big ice for a lot of areas then single digit temps a few days later....looks good on paper even Euro has had several hours of light snow before storm comes in, but you are correct that GFS even more insistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The gfs has been insistent for several runs on more than a few inches then big ice for a lot of areas then single digit temps a few days later....looks good on paper the euro is a little bothersome but it wouldnt be surprising if it's overdoing the interior idea. it's tended to pull things north this yr that dont end up as amplified. either way it's probably too warm. i dunno.. it's still an ugly pattern for any confidence in anything.. but the frontrunning moisture does seem real at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OT: may get a few hours of snow tomorrow per 0Z NAM by the looks of this 700mb RH http://www.nco.ncep....am_700_018l.gif Probably no more than flurries. Sim radar has 10 dbz returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OT: may get a few hours of snow tomorrow per 0Z NAM by the looks of this 700mb RH http://www.nco.ncep....am_700_018l.gif nevermind I forgot you needed a passport to get snow south of 40N http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty defined CAD signature on the SREF at 87 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i like the potential for a few inches with the front runner I think that's a lock.. should be a nice long duration event of snow and ice.. In some ways I like that more over a short 6 hour thump like the other day, even if less accumulates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the euro is a little bothersome but it wouldnt be surprising if it's overdoing the interior idea. it's tended to pull things north this yr that dont end up as amplified. either way it's probably too warm. i dunno.. it's still an ugly pattern for any confidence in anything.. but the frontrunning moisture does seem real at this pt. GFS has been consistent for the most part on the last several runs...euro was cutter then OTS then storm then cutter right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty defined CAD signature on the SREF at 87 FWIW with all that High pressure in Canada, its a darn shame the 850-0 line doesn't want to meander too far past Jeb's house maybe that will change with time and the models will go with the colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nevermind I forgot you needed a passport to get snow south of 40N http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_024l.gif it's definitely not going to be much but n/ne md could get a dusting+ .. potentially down toward us but i'd think not. it's not that tight a vort and some energy shoots down in this direction in front of it. 700 maps that look like the nam have generally produced at least a flizzard somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty defined CAD signature on the SREF at 87 FWIW Indeed -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_087s.gif The 0c 850 line at 87 on the SREFs (if we were to believe it straight up) is south of RIC... so we should still have at least more time for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 with all that High pressure in Canada, its a darn shame the 850-0 line doesn't want to meander too far past Jeb's house maybe that will change with time and the models will go with the colder solution That has happened for that last few storms so let's hang on to that until it breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That has happened for that last few storms so let's hang on to that until it breaks I agree and will be both surprised and (naturally) disappointed if it doesn't trend colder heck, even HPC seems to be leaning that way, and they're not weenies like us...well, they're not like us at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think that's a lock.. should be a nice long duration event of snow and ice.. In some ways I like that more over a short 6 hour thump like the other day, even if less accumulates.. yeah it could be. being west helps. im not a fan of marginal at any range. i do think the models have a colder look in this range than they did before jan 11 and it ended up colder than they showed. we'll see. hopefully the euro drops what it was showing at 12z and makes it easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree and will be both surprised and (naturally) disappointed if it doesn't trend colder heck, even HPC seems to be leaning that way, and they're not weenies like us...well, they're not like us at least It seems that the SREFs are increasing the strength of the high pressure... last night's 21z SREFs had a 1052 H... tonight its a 1056 H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah it could be. being west helps. im not a fan of marginal at any range. i do think the models have a colder look in this range than they did before jan 11 and it ended up colder than they showed. we'll see. hopefully the euro drops what it was showing at 12z and makes it easier. They always trend colder in these scenarios.. yeoman guarantee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I can't see major differences synoptically between today's Euro and today's runs of the GFS,. But the EC had no CAD whatsoever with a 1030+mb high in Quebec, which seems whack. GFS does show it which accounts for the different details the models spit out. Interested to see later if the ECMWF picks up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 They always trend colder in these scenarios.. yeoman guarantee! ultimately we'll probably go back to what the euro and gfs were showing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not sure why I feel this way but this feels like a legitimate Ice storm coming....I'm hoping sleet but it just feels like something bigger. If we get a solid snow prior I wonder if that mutes the ice effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just a quick question, can someone explain how this wv image translates to the projected path of the L, because I don't see where they match up at all. Obviously i'm missing something I'm a noob but will hazard a guess for you ... look at this map http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_000m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not sure why I feel this way but this feels like a legitimate Ice storm coming....I'm hoping sleet but it just feels like something bigger. If we get a solid snow prior I wonder if that mutes the ice effects? I had three inches of snow 2/13/07 before the sleet storm, and it definitely diminished the ice impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not sure why I feel this way but this feels like a legitimate Ice storm coming....I'm hoping sleet but it just feels like something bigger. If we get a solid snow prior I wonder if that mutes the ice effects? Right now, I think that is the bigger threat but it's still way out there in a tough to forecast pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not sure why I feel this way but this feels like a legitimate Ice storm coming....I'm hoping sleet but it just feels like something bigger. If we get a solid snow prior I wonder if that mutes the ice effects? I have a sick mind about these things there's something exhilarating about fighting the snow/sleet/zr line, the way it waxes and wanes, before an inevitable changeover I guess its a natural defense mechanism against the disappointment of the changeover or maybe its just the gambler in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This will trend colder as the models sniff out the strength of the high pressure areas. It will still try to cut, but will be forced to slide out under the cold air, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM at 42 looks pretty overrunery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have a huge meeting late Tuesday afternoon...maybe not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This will trend colder as the models sniff out the strength of the high pressure areas. It will still try to cut, but will be forced to slide out under the cold air, IMO. Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This will trend colder as the models sniff out the strength of the high pressure areas. It will still try to cut, but will be forced to slide out under the cold air, IMO. Strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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