NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Snow to Freezing Rain/Rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks to me like a snow thump to a fairly decent frozen event especially NW of 95. It appears that Ians house is mostly rain so I think he shouldn't pay too much attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I also think that if guidance has the right idea of leaving some energy back in the 4 corners... a second, late-week threat has legs. It's only a matter of time until a northern stream impulse would come over top of that ridge an blows it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 primary gets to about Pitt at 126 before transfer to the Delmarva or so..we dryslot then 850's and 2m temps crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think buckeye is sweating bullets with this one....Cleveland might be a good place or far NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 500 in WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it's the 18z GFS over 100 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Any one find it ironic that we only get decent storm chances this year when the NAO is positive (or nuetral like this past Wednesday)?? ? Three in a row potentially. When the conducive NAO tanked, we only got cutter, surpression, or northern stream Miller B's. Go Figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like we are in a wet period now....who's a happy pappy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like we are in a wet period now....who's a happy pappy? and continued cold. Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Me and Dr. No.....you and me against the world.....Helen Reddy reference people...wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think buckeye is sweating bullets with this one....Cleveland might be a good place or far NW PA lol...what am i the only guy who lives west of the apps??? I sweat bullets with every threat. One thing to remember...THE NW TREND DIED 3 WINTERS AGO if anything the trend has been back southeast inside 84 hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ]120hrs would be a MAJOR ice storm for Northern MD After it temps climb a little higher at 0z, so it may end as brief Rain, but Ice seems to be the predominant on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Any one find it ironic that we only get decent storm chances this year when the NAO is positive (or nuetral like this past Wednesday)?? ? Three in a row potentially. When the conducive NAO tanked, we only got cutter, surpression, or northern stream Miller B's. Go Figure I mentioned this several times around the last ice storm. If you trace back recently most of our good precip comes near neutral. The super block was mostly just keeping us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 18Z gfs would be a wicked ice storm for the dc area. Still too early to get too excited but well worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Me and Dr. No.....you and me against the world.....Helen Reddy reference people...wake up Snow gave you a new attitude Patti Labelle reference. I am awake and good to see you kicking a** with positive thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's a shame that pretty much all guidance is showing the 500 track to our west. Tough to get excited for this one yet (at least excited for a significant all snow event). Maybe once the all the energy is onshore a major shift can happen. When's the last time the majority of guidance showed a west track around the 4-5 day range and the track ended up being east in the end? Do I already know the answer? lol No ice please. 36 hours with no power and a 45 degree house has turned me off anything that may cause power loss again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's a shame that pretty much all guidance is showing the 500 track to our west. Tough to get excited for this one yet (at least excited for a significant all snow event). Maybe once the all the energy is onshore a major shift can happen. When's the last time the majority of guidance showed a west track around the 4-5 day range and the track ended up being east in the end? Do I already know the answer? lol No ice please. 36 hours with no power and a 45 degree house has turned me off anything that may cause power loss again. Wednesday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Wednesday's storm? I just suffered a brain melting fever so I may be way out with short term memory. I thought the ULL always looked pretty favorable for that one but the temps were suspect at best. Wasn't it just the Euro giving the west track but given it's usual bias the general thoughts were that it was going to track SE of our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Wednesday's storm? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 18Z gfs would be a wicked ice storm for the dc area. Still too early to get too excited but well worth tracking. It would... it suggests well over half an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It would... it suggests well over half an inch of ice. CAD often underplayed this far out, or underplayed in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CAD often underplayed this far out, or underplayed in general. I know... it happened during our last ice storm. But straight up, the 18z GFS suggests some snow, to heavy ice, to light rain/drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CAD often underplayed this far out, or underplayed in general. QUESTION: Does having snow on the ground provide a significant effect in keeping the 2M temps lower during CAD situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yoda is all over it.. i expect qpf readings to the thousandth starting with 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 QUESTION: Does having snow on the ground provide a significant effect in keeping the 2M temps lower during CAD situations? it's probably minor tho it should help keep ambient temperatures a little lower.. if you get a good wind to break the cad it probably doesnt really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yoda is all over it.. i expect qpf readings to the thousandth starting with 0z runs Yes sir! But i am agreeing with what Wes said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yoda is all over it.. i expect qpf readings to the thousandth starting with 0z runs no need to be nasty just because the last storm wasn't named after you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 no need to be nasty just because the last storm wasn't named after you.... lol. i hope i never have a storm named after me. then you have to live up to knowing something. i dont like ice.. i wont get excited about it if that's what the outcome is. unless we get 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 it's probably minor tho it should help keep ambient temperatures a little lower.. if you get a good wind to break the cad it probably doesnt really matter Thanks! I always wondered about that. Obviously, it can't hurt the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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